Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[mikemost]

I have to admit that I'm getting a little worried about out this way. Every model has a sharp cut off very close to MMU.

I hear ya... the subsidence by us is going to be gut-wrenching. Could be a razors edge type cut off... Hoping that the trough going negative early turns out to be lucrative.

[WintersGrasp]

GIGO

Lol well it's true that the GFS has been garbage in general, especially this fine new upgrade. However, the NAM usually is as well. I think I'm torn between being a true American, or just completely going European. What time does the bloody UKIE come out, mate?

[bluewave]

THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND FASTER THAN ITS 00Z RUN AT 500MB AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND THEN MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN MIDATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUE.  OVERALLHOWEVER...RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00/06/12Z RUNS AREMINOR.  IN COMPARISON TO THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THE GFSREMAINS BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL ALONGTHE EASTERN/PROGRESSIVE EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE.CONFIDENCE IS TEMPERED BY THE LINGERING MODEL SPREAD...HOWEVERGIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM (NEGATIVE TILT) AND ASIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM RIDGE NOSING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...ASLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE LATEST NAM/ECMWFSEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE FASTER CAMP.AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH THESE BIG STORMS...SMALL DETAILDIFFERENCES RESULT IN LARGE IMPACT DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY WITHPRECIPITATION. PREFERENCES LISTED HERE REFLECT MODEL POSITION ANDMASS FIELDS...BUT REFER TO WPC WINTER WEATHER AND QPF DESKPRODUCTS FOR INFORMATION ON LIQUID EQUIVALENTS/SNOW.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

[donsutherland1]

WPC is going with the Euro/Nam due to the ongoing obs. Trough is taking a negative tilt. Threw out the gfs.

That makes good sense. Stick with the models that are best representing the situation. Nothing is guaranteed, but that's probably the most prudent approach right now.

[billgwx]

THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND FASTER THAN ITS 00Z RUN AT 500MB AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND THEN MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN MIDATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUE.  OVERALLHOWEVER...RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00/06/12Z RUNS AREMINOR.  IN COMPARISON TO THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THE GFSREMAINS BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL ALONGTHE EASTERN/PROGRESSIVE EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE.CONFIDENCE IS TEMPERED BY THE LINGERING MODEL SPREAD...HOWEVERGIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM (NEGATIVE TILT) AND ASIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM RIDGE NOSING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...ASLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE LATEST NAM/ECMWFSEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE FASTER CAMP.AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH THESE BIG STORMS...SMALL DETAILDIFFERENCES RESULT IN LARGE IMPACT DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY WITHPRECIPITATION. PREFERENCES LISTED HERE REFLECT MODEL POSITION ANDMASS FIELDS...BUT REFER TO WPC WINTER WEATHER AND QPF DESKPRODUCTS FOR INFORMATION ON LIQUID EQUIVALENTS/SNOW.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

Another funky band of snow setting up right over NYC/LI

[Allsnow]

how were previous runs?

Looks like one inch was west of ewr at 06z...now just touching it...they love Monmouth county get a inch back to mercer/Monmouth boarder

[IsentropicLift]

I hear ya... the subsidence by us is going to be gut-wrenching. Could be a razors edge type cut off... Hoping that the trough going negative early turns out to be lucrative.

The 12z NAM shows good lift all the way back into PA. I'm putting my faith in the Euro/NAM blend and NWS/WPC statements

 

[NEXtreme]

Joe Cioffi:

"Morning model runs continue to show that the European model yesterday and last night are on course. The NAM actually would argue for mega amounts in some places but Im done model casting unless something really radical happens. No changes in the forecast.The worst will be late this afternoon and overnight into Tuesday. One last chance in the next couple of hours for a liquor and cigar run...otherwise sit back and watch and seriously stay safe."

[MJO812]

Obs shows the low right over hatteras

[MJO812]

Another funky band of snow setting up right over NYC/LI

Moderate snow here

[IsentropicLift]

Trough going negative tilt

 

[SnowGoose69]

Moderate snow here

 

Almost looks like some sort of convergent area.

[Superstorm93]

Obs shows the low right over hatteras

 

Hatteras is 90 miles out in the Atlantic? C'mon man. 

 

[HailMan06]

The trough is starting to go negative (as the WPC stated) and the jet streak is starting to turn the corner, which should spark some rapid deepening in a few hours. The storm is still in its developmental stages right now, but these trends are very encouraging if you're rooting for the ECMWF or NAM solutions.

Thanks!

[jdt]

This close in to the event until some real time data suggest the consistent idea of the Euro is out to lunch there is really no reason to change the thinking much. If the upcoming 12z Euro shows anything more the a wobble east then I would become concerned. If it wobbles a few miles east or better wobbles west then remain encouraged. And regardless of specific model outputs there is always a threat of a sharp western cutoff in systems like this.

[SACRUS]

[Superstorm93]

Tons of lightning showing up to the SE of the developing low pressure.

 

[IsentropicLift]

The HRRR has basically nothing NW of EWR

[MJO812]

ARW, JMA, NMM are like the GFS

[WintersGrasp]

The HRRR has basically nothing NW of EWR

Starts spreading the band back east into Long Island and then tightens it up and pulls back west

[SnowGoose69]

The SPC WRF matches the current radar somewhat well, its similar in that ERN NJ east does well but not much west...here is the 05Z frame, from here everything starts inching east

 

 

[IsentropicLift]

Starts spreading the band back east into Long Island and then tightens it up and pulls back west

It's also at the tail end of its range. I was looking at it more for today, it doesn't show much.

[WintersGrasp]

Something to note.....as we speak of the different models and what they show, as well as following the timing of the negative tilt and the movement of the low pressure center.....correct me if I'm wrong, but from what I can tell, the euro was not ridiculously far W, or hugging the coast or anything. While it is further west than others, the main reason for the huge discrepancies with all others except the NAM is that those two models throw back boatloads of moisture, whereas some others than follow a similar track just pretty much pull it all mainly north with the low and fail to really wrap it around and tighten up over many areas west of LI/NYC

[IsentropicLift]

Well the Euro starts in ten minutes. For those of us West of the city this is the most important run in a few years.

[NEXtreme]

Larry Cosgrove:

Another bad (poorly initialized) operational GFS model run. Incredible.

[USCG RS]

To save confusion, please, If you are not experienced, let the experts talk about the euro first

[WintersGrasp]

Well the Euro starts in ten minutes. For those of us West of the city this is the most important run in a few years.

Ahhhh so nervous. If this run holds, I'm officially ignoring every other model in disagreement with it from now until the storm. By the way Snowgoose, the WRF looks terrific for NENJ/NYC based on that image and you said it's spreading east.....does it give a euro-type solution? Or more of the RGEM

[Brian5671]

Well the Euro starts in ten minutes. For those of us West of the city this is the most important run in a few years.

last euro run that means anything, by 1am, it's nowcast time.

[Superstorm93]

One person does the EURO. That's it. We don't need weenies screaming that its east, or west, or whatever. Just a coherent PBP.