Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[MJO812]

No problem Tim.

I think the Ukmet is in the GFS/GGEM camp as well.

Always have been

[HailMan06]

Going negative?

Check out the link I posted three posts above yours. I would say so.

[stockmanjr]

Eh, the RGEM is more trustworthy than the GGEM at this point. I think its still not expanding the precip on the northwest side enough. 

That comes back to what LC said last night when he said stop with the eastward track talk.

[brooklynwx99]

Check out the link I posted three post above yours. I would say so.

 

Looks more in tune with the NAM than with the GFS/GGEM. Not to say that LI will get 50" of snow, but.... 

[HailMan06]

Looks more in tune with the NAM than with the GFS/GGEM. Not to say that LI will get 50" of snow, but....

Almost certainly won't get up to 50" but you never know with the dynamics we're dealing with.

[MJO812]

Ukie is 10+

[Superstorm93]

[sferic]

We are under a blizzard warning now with no clear indication of whether this will be a foot or 2x or 3x that in NYC and LI?

 

This is not an IMBY question but what's the range for NYC/LI and the most probable outcome?

 

Is the storm going to stall tomorrow? If so when does the "BLIZZARD" pull out?

[brooklynwx99]

Is the trough going negative BEFORE the NAM? Or is it on par with it?

[stlirish]

We are under a blizzard warning now with no clear indication of whether this will be a foot or 2x or 3x that in NYC and LI?

This is not an IMBY question but what's the range for NYC/LI and the most probable outcome?

Is the storm going to stall tomorrow? If so when does the "BLIZZARD" pull out?

Not to be too generic, but I think that it's safe to say plan on a foot with 2-3 ft locally. If you avg all the main models for NYC - you are around 15-18" generally.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[friedmators]

[Allsnow]

Gefs have a inch back to nyc and .75 to ttn

[HailMan06]

What's the status on the t-storms some people were concerned about last night over Florida?

[forkyfork]

Gefs have a inch back to nyc and .75 to ttn

how were previous runs?

[Bluescat1]

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20150126&endTime=-1&duration=4

[Guest Pamela]

My...that 12z NMM...which I think runs off the NAM grid and sometimes does rather well with these systems...it was excellent with the cutoff with the 12/19/2009 storm...is amazingly dry over most of NJ...fair part of the state away from the water is under 0.25 L.E through about hour 26...

[ag3]

Gefs have a inch back to nyc and .75 to ttn

 

I see 1.25" in western Queens Tim. Very close to NYC.

[Nygmen]

the trough is DEFENITLY swinging faster than anticipated on the gfs...

[MJO812]

WPC is going with the Euro/Nam due to the ongoing obs. Trough is taking a negative tilt. Threw out the gfs.

[PB GFI]

 

ONE OF THE MORE NOTABLE RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES BETWEEN THE 00/12Z NAM
OCCURS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE 12Z RUN IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH
THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND IS A FEW
HOURS FASTER TO CLOSE OFF A 500MB CENTER EARLY TUE. THIS IS
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A LOW THAT TRACKS A LITTLE CLOSER TO
THE COAST ON TUE. THIS PLACES THE NAM SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR ABOUT A 12-HR
PERIOD FROM 06-18Z TUE. FROM EARLY WED ONWARD...THE 12Z NAM IS A
LITTLE SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED THAN ITS 00Z RUN AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES FROM OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...BUT OVERALL...THE NAM HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT.
IN FURTHER COMPARISON TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...FROM 00Z WED
ONWARD...THAN NAM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 00Z ECMWF BUT BEARS
MORE IN COMMON WITH THE ECMWF THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE 00Z
UKMET/CMC GLOBAL AND THE 09Z SREF MEAN.

THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND FASTER THAN ITS 00Z RUN AT 500
MB AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND THEN MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUE. OVERALL
HOWEVER...RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00/06/12Z RUNS ARE
MINOR. IN COMPARISON TO THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THE GFS
REMAINS BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL ALONG
THE EASTERN/PROGRESSIVE EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE IS TEMPERED BY THE LINGERING MODEL SPREAD...HOWEVER
GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM (NEGATIVE TILT) AND A
SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM RIDGE NOSING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...A
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE FASTER CAMP.

AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH THESE BIG STORMS...SMALL DETAIL
DIFFERENCES RESULT IN LARGE IMPACT DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY WITH
PRECIPITATION. PREFERENCES LISTED HERE REFLECT MODEL POSITION AND
MASS FIELDS...BUT REFER TO WPC WINTER WEATHER AND QPF DESK
PRODUCTS FOR INFORMATION ON LIQUID EQUIVALENTS/SNOW.

[SnowGoose69]

My...that 12z NMM...which I think runs off the NAM grid and sometimes does rather well with these systems...it was excellent with the cutoff with the 12/19/2009 storm...is amazingly dry over most of NJ...fair part of the state away from the water is under 0.25 L.E through about hour 26...

 

It looks very RGEM like, hits NYC east very good but not much west.

[mikemost]

WPC is going with the Euro/Nam due to the ongoing obs. Trough is taking a negative tilt. Threw out the gfs.

11:53am disco:

 

ONE OF THE MORE NOTABLE RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES BETWEEN THE 00/12Z NAM

OCCURS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE 12Z RUN IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH

THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND IS A FEW

HOURS FASTER TO CLOSE OFF A 500MB CENTER EARLY TUE. THIS IS

REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A LOW THAT TRACKS A LITTLE CLOSER TO

THE COAST ON TUE. THIS PLACES THE NAM SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE

WESTERN EDGE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR ABOUT A 12-HR

PERIOD FROM 06-18Z TUE. FROM EARLY WED ONWARD...THE 12Z NAM IS A

LITTLE SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED THAN ITS 00Z RUN AS THE SYSTEM

MOVES FROM OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE CANADIAN

MARITIMES...BUT OVERALL...THE NAM HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT.

IN FURTHER COMPARISON TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...FROM 00Z WED

ONWARD...THAN NAM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 00Z ECMWF BUT BEARS

MORE IN COMMON WITH THE ECMWF THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE 00Z

UKMET/CMC GLOBAL AND THE 09Z SREF MEAN.

THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND FASTER THAN ITS 00Z RUN AT 500

MB AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND THEN MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN MID

ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUE. OVERALL

HOWEVER...RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00/06/12Z RUNS ARE

MINOR. IN COMPARISON TO THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THE GFS

REMAINS BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL ALONG

THE EASTERN/PROGRESSIVE EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE IS TEMPERED BY THE LINGERING MODEL SPREAD...HOWEVER

GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM (NEGATIVE TILT) AND A

SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM RIDGE NOSING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...A

SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF

SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE FASTER CAMP.

[brooklynwx99]

Current H5 conditions at top vs. 12z GFS initialization conditions. The trough @ 5H is swinging much faster than anticipated by the GFS/GGEM... lean towards the NAM/ECM guidance. 

[NEXtreme]

Steve D: "The surface low is CLEARLY further west than the majority of models had suggested."

"However, the key is the 500 MB low which we still have to study tonight."

[WintersGrasp]

I'll be honest.....after the big NAM run last night that followed the big euro, I really thought other models were going to get much closer to that solution

[allgame830]

11:53am disco:

 

ONE OF THE MORE NOTABLE RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES BETWEEN THE 00/12Z NAM

OCCURS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE 12Z RUN IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH

THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND IS A FEW

HOURS FASTER TO CLOSE OFF A 500MB CENTER EARLY TUE. THIS IS

REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A LOW THAT TRACKS A LITTLE CLOSER TO

THE COAST ON TUE. THIS PLACES THE NAM SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE

WESTERN EDGE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR ABOUT A 12-HR

PERIOD FROM 06-18Z TUE. FROM EARLY WED ONWARD...THE 12Z NAM IS A

LITTLE SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED THAN ITS 00Z RUN AS THE SYSTEM

MOVES FROM OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE CANADIAN

MARITIMES...BUT OVERALL...THE NAM HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT.

IN FURTHER COMPARISON TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...FROM 00Z WED

ONWARD...THAN NAM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 00Z ECMWF BUT BEARS

MORE IN COMMON WITH THE ECMWF THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE 00Z

UKMET/CMC GLOBAL AND THE 09Z SREF MEAN.

THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND FASTER THAN ITS 00Z RUN AT 500

MB AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND THEN MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN MID

ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUE. OVERALL

HOWEVER...RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00/06/12Z RUNS ARE

MINOR. IN COMPARISON TO THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THE GFS

REMAINS BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL ALONG

THE EASTERN/PROGRESSIVE EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE IS TEMPERED BY THE LINGERING MODEL SPREAD...HOWEVER

GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM (NEGATIVE TILT) AND A

SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM RIDGE NOSING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...A

SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF

SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE FASTER CAMP.

 

Well then we finally got confirmation!

[PB GFI]

I'll be honest.....after the big NAM run last night that followed the big euro, I really thought other models were going to get much closer to that solution

GIGO

[Superstorm93]

What's the status on the t-storms some people were concerned about last night over Florida?

 

 

Is the trough going negative BEFORE the NAM? Or is it on par with it?

 

 

The trough is starting to go negative (as the WPC stated) and the jet streak is starting to turn the corner, which should spark some rapid deepening in a few hours. The storm is still in its developmental stages right now, but these trends are very encouraging if you're rooting for the ECMWF or NAM solutions.

 

[IsentropicLift]

I have to admit that I'm getting a little worried about out this way. Every model has a sharp cut off very close to MMU.

[SnowGoose69]

I'll be honest.....after the big NAM run last night that followed the big euro, I really thought other models were going to get much closer to that solution

 

The RGEM tried desperately but failed, it got close to the idea though.