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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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chietanen

chietanen

Posted
Posted

I never say this...but at this point...with this many solutions still on the table with the event technically underway...just watch the satellite & radar & surface reports...and see how it plays out...its definitely going to snow...and a lot. 

 

Posted something very similar in the obs thread about 20 minutes ago. Totally agree with you.

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SleetStormNJ

SleetStormNJ

Posted
Posted

Assuming the RGEM is correct, we would have a major snowstorm at hand, however, not an epic storm that the euro/nam shows. If the euro backs down, it's not game over.....but just would make more sense to not have the "maybe 2-3 feet?" thoughts in our mind.....they're unhealthy thoughts to have

RGEM is probably going to struggle with the banding features. Also the GFS seems to always fudge the NW precip shield. It failed horribly this past weekend at times.

I think a blended approach still yields 12-20 for most. Who gets the jackpots is really the thing that the models won't catch onto until the last minute.

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stlirish

stlirish

Posted
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VERY overdone as strong winds should fracture the pretty dendrites and hold snow ratios down. Still...3+" QPF is astounding, and I am confident someone will get 3 feet of snow out of this where the heaviest bands set up. Could be anywhere in NYC metro, CT, or Long Island...I'd expect at least 18-24" and prepare for worst case of 3 feet if I lived in those areas, which of course I do :ee:

Bill, thanks! Love having you pop in and give your insights to us. Assuming you are still tossing the GFS solution (for now). Seems as though it struggled to initialize well (not picking up on neutral - about to go negative tilt - trough). I'm fine with 18" on the lower end, suspect that might be low for about 1/2 of us in the area.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

VERY overdone as strong winds should fracture the pretty dendrites and hold snow ratios down. Still...3+" QPF is astounding, and I am confident someone will get 3 feet of snow out of this where the heaviest bands set up. Could be anywhere in NYC metro, CT, or Long Island...I'd expect at least 18-24" and prepare for worst case of 3 feet if I lived in those areas, which of course I do :ee:

 

The only time similar numbers were reached in this general area that I can recall was in 1978 when they came to about 50 inches reputedly in NW Rhode Island near Foster (elevation about 600')...and then in 2005...when I think some spots pushed 40" in coastal Massachusetts...oh, and snow event two Februaries ago when southern CT tipped 40".  Of course, the Blizzard of 1888 saw about 47" in New Haven...

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

The only time similar numbers were reached in this general area that I can recall was in 1978 when they came to about 50 inches reputedly in NW Rhode Island near Foster (elevation about 600')...and then in 2005...when I think some spots pushed 40" in coastal Massachusetts...oh, and snow event two Februaries ago when southern CT tipped 40".  Of course, the Blizzard of 1888 saw about 47" in New Haven...

 

That December 1992 storm pushed 48 inches in the Berkshires around Peru (elev 2000')  (aptly named due to its high altitude)...but I would not include that as it was elevation driven.

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ForestHillWx

ForestHillWx

Posted
Posted

Not sure if this is the correct thread, but if you look at the water vapor loop, to me it appears the trough is tilting somewhere off the coast of southern North Carolina. Also the feature diving down through northern Georgia looks great. To me this screams explosive storm that will follow the Euro's idea. Can't wait for the show to begin.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
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:axe: This is the most frustrating storm to track I can ever remember. The event is underway and we're still worlds apart.

 

The other Jan. 26 was the same. 2011.

GFS constantly showed .50"-.75" of precip, even on the 12z run on the same day. 16"-22" fell.

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ILoveWinter

ILoveWinter

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:axe: This is the most frustrating storm to track I can ever remember. The event is underway and we're still worlds apart.

I agree, you would think they would have this sorted by now. Not a met but I just think the dynamics are just so off the charts that the models are having difficulties (euro and nam perhaps included too) sorting everything out.

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Kborne

Kborne

Posted
Posted

I never say this...but at this point...with this many solutions still on the table with the event technically underway...just watch the satellite & radar & surface reports...and see how it plays out...its definitely going to snow...and a lot. 

Thanks for this post. This was my thinking. I lurk here (as you can see).  But I 'cringe' when I hear 'nowcasting' on t.v. because all my friends say the same thing: 'my 10 year old can nowcast'.  Anyway, at this point the system is in transition off the coast, there is a lot to be gained at this point by looking at the surface reports and the soundings as the low progresses, and as you said - sat and rad...etc.  This is when I like to jump in and start looking at the raw numbers, and get back to the old fashioned way of forecasting. I could get into the models, but I won't here, this isn't the thread.  I know how the models are set up and how they are weighted (7 days out and 24 hours out, and I am not a fan...)   Anyway, this post, by you, is what I think we all need to key in on at this point in the life of this somewhat complex system.

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