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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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Nygmen

Nygmen

Posted
Posted

I've always seen the RGEM as accurate which definitely has me worried.....and the NAM is obviously being loved at the moment because it shows a ton of snow and goes along with the last euro run.....have you noticed anything on the RGEM a that seemed "off"? It definitely is usually more accurate than the NAM, especially at this range

tbh the rgem looks like its suffering with convective feedback and not enough of a western precip shield...track isnt bad at all

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SleetStormNJ

SleetStormNJ

Posted
Posted

I've always seen the RGEM as accurate which definitely has me worried.....and the NAM is obviously being loved at the moment because it shows a ton of snow and goes along with the last euro run.....have you noticed anything on the RGEM a that seemed "off"? It definitely is usually more accurate than the NAM, especially at this range

 

RGEM looks pretty good for those of us in N/E NJ.  

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

I've always seen the RGEM as accurate which definitely has me worried.....and the NAM is obviously being loved at the moment because it shows a ton of snow and goes along with the last euro run.....have you noticed anything on the RGEM a that seemed "off"? It definitely is usually more accurate than the NAM, especially at this range

The positive sign from the RGEM was it did come west, it's a good sign to see it didn't go east or remain the same, it appeared to give close to 18 in NYC and easily 18-26 over LI, the nam and euro though I'm becoming increasingly confident are likely over done.

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stlirish

stlirish

Posted
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The RAP's forecast at the end of it's run would suggest the GFS and RGEM are closer to reality than the NAM or Euro, the RAP has a known west bias beyond 12 hours and it's barely getting heavy snow to NYC, the Euro may be going down on this event.

You're going to trust the RAP at the end of its run over the Euro? Good luck.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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cjr231

cjr231

Posted
Posted

I wont lie. The GFS not biting doesnt worry me at all, but not having the RGEM on board gives me an uneasy feeling. It has often done better than even the EURO in the 24 hour range for some events the last few winters. 

 

I have fully been behind the EURO for days now and its extreme solution and not wavered but the RGEM is now giving me some pause. 

 

That being said even the GFS/RGEM scenario of 12-16 inches in the city I will glady take to the bank. 

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ag3

ag3

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It almost always has a west bias at that range, it's possible it could be out to lunch but you'd want to see it with snow back into eastern PA at hour 18 right now most of the time

 

RAP is not capable of picking up on this complicated phasing.

It will be useless to use until the storm is fully formed.

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

Assuming the RGEM is correct, we would have a major snowstorm at hand, however, not an epic storm that the euro/nam shows. If the euro backs down, it's not game over.....but just would make more sense to not have the "maybe 2-3 feet?" thoughts in our mind.....they're unhealthy thoughts to have

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yhbrooklyn

yhbrooklyn

Posted
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The RAP's forecast at the end of it's run would suggest the GFS and RGEM are closer to reality than the NAM or Euro, the RAP has a known west bias beyond 12 hours and it's barely getting heavy snow to NYC, the Euro may be going down on this event.

Just curious, if the RGEM shows 50% more snow than the GFS, why are we putting them in the same camp?

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
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I wont lie. The GFS not biting doesnt worry me at all, but not having the RGEM on board gives me an uneasy feeling. It has often done better than even the EURO in the 24 hour range for some events the last few winters. 

 

I have fully been behind the EURO for days now and its extreme solution and not wavered but the RGEM is now giving me some pause. 

 

That being said even the GFS/RGEM scenario of 12-16 inches in the city I will glady take to the bank. 

 

 

 Not really sure what your talking about but the RGEM gives the NYC area close to 18 inches....

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

I never say this...but at this point...with this many solutions still on the table with the event technically underway...just watch the satellite & radar & surface reports...and see how it plays out...its definitely going to snow...and a lot. 

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

I never say this...but at this point...with this many solutions still on the table with the event technically underway...just watch the satellite & radar & surface reports...and see how it plays out...

 

Yes your options are you get 20 or 30 . 

Those are GREAT options 

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Zir0b

Zir0b

Posted
Posted

It almost always has a west bias at that range, it's possible it could be out to lunch but you'd want to see it with snow back into eastern PA at hour 18 right now most of the time

With all due respect I think the RAP's bias only occurs during WAA events/SWFE/simple coastal lows, I wouldn't use it in a situation like this. 

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted

I never say this...but at this point...with this many solutions still on the table with the event technically underway...just watch the satellite & radar & surface reports...and see how it plays out...its definitely going to snow...and a lot. 

 

Yes and the trough is already negative which the GFS didn't have until 1pm ... which right there makes it null and void

 

Nothing has changed for this forecast... 1-2 feet of snow for the area seems like the best call at this time with spots getting more

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billgwx

billgwx

Posted
Posted

Kuchera method via the 12Z NAM really is interesting. Likely overdone , but good eye candy!

BpzZc4C.png

 

VERY overdone as strong winds should fracture the pretty dendrites and hold snow ratios down. Still...3+" QPF is astounding, and I am confident someone will get 3 feet of snow out of this where the heaviest bands set up. Could be anywhere in NYC metro, CT, or Long Island...I'd expect at least 18-24" and prepare for worst case of 3 feet if I lived in those areas, which of course I do :ee:

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yhbrooklyn

yhbrooklyn

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VERY overdone as strong winds should fracture the pretty dendrites and hold snow ratios down. Still...3+" QPF is astounding, and I am confident someone will get 3 feet of snow out of this where the heaviest bands set up. Could be anywhere in NYC metro, CT, or Long Island...I'd expect at least 18-24" and prepare for worst case of 3 feet if I lived in those areas, which of course I do :ee:

Thanks, Bill! I'm riding you through this storm!

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