Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[RUMG11]

If you cut the NAM s totals in half its 2 Feet at KNYC

Good lord. What did I miss? Lol

[IsentropicLift]

If you look at where the strongest lift occurs, it starts off over the city and then splits into two bands, one which moves NW and the other towards LI. Then everything consolidates one more time near the coast as the system begins to pull away.

[stlirish]

If you cut the NAM s totals in half its 2 Feet at KNYC

That's just incredible. Wow!

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[SnoSki14]

Wow we just got Nam'd.

[billgwx]

Is that 48" I see on that map for western Long Island? Holy cow. Remember what I said about banding usually occurring just NW of model fcst. NYC?!?

[RUMG11]

Is that 48" I see on that map for western Long Island? Holy cow. Remember what I said about banding usually occurring just NW of model fcst. NYC?!?

Spot on.

[Seth.P]

I live in south Brooklyn, with overhead power lines. My power survived Sandy, but I am worried about this storm, even though I know the worst of the winds will be more so in ELI, and SNE. Do you think my power will last through this storm?


Thanks!

[SnoSki14]

And what's with the site still crashing constantly. Come on guys it's basically one event all winter. 

[sferic]

With the new NAM and the EURO already good, what is the realistic and probable maximum for KNYC?

[RUMG11]

Good lord. One event all winter and the site is holding itself together with bandaids and glue. Get it together. Sheesh...

[Seth.P]

 I live in south Brooklyn, with overhead power lines. My power survived Sandy, but I am worried about this storm, even though I know the worst of the winds will be more so in ELI, and SNE. Do you think my power will last through this storm?

Thanks!

[Morch Madness]

And what's with the site still crashing constantly. Come on guys it's basically one event all winter. 

 

DDoS attack. It's not the increased reader traffic, someone is spamming the site with millions of requests and crashing the server. Really hard to fight off, I'm surprised the site is running at all.

[nycemt123]

What about Rockland county? Timing/amounts?

[Juliancolton]

Trough axis swinging negative and starting to feel the influence from the approaching shortwave

 

[IsentropicLift]

The RGEM looks decent. Here are some of highlights

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Nygmen]

rgem is out to lunch...especially with the precip shield...damn thing looks clueless with the low jumping around evry panel

[allgame830]

The RGEM looks decent. Here are some of highlights

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

what is the totals according to the RGEM?

[mikeysed]

Travel Ban for all of Connecticut starting at 9pm tonight.

[mob1]

The high resolution NAM finally moved west and absolutely destroys NYC, it has been well east the past few runs.

[SnowGoose69]

Looking at the black and whites the RGEM appears to still be unimpressive

[WintersGrasp]

So the HI-RES NAM is onboard now as well.....extremely sharp cutoff as NYC gets triple the snow that areas just 25 miles NW get (on the NAM at least)....will be very exciting to see where this band sets up

[Brian5671]

I live in south Brooklyn, with overhead power lines. My power survived Sandy, but I am worried about this storm, even though I know the worst of the winds will be more so in ELI, and SNE. Do you think my power will last through this storm?

Thanks!

snow should be powderrly so that will limit weight on lines etc

[jm1220]

RGEM looks better than it did at 0z, that's really all we could hope for.

[WintersGrasp]

GFS doesn't bite one bit.....worlds apart from the NAM/EURO (e-li and SNE hit hard).....really interesting we are in the DAY OF the event and major models range from 8-10" to 2 to 3ft. Either the RGEM/Canadian/GFS are onto something and the NAM is overdone/euro will shift east, or they're just out to lunch. Let's just let them eat lunch please

[snow1]

Hearing even the GFS isn't impressive.

[IsentropicLift]

With the GFS being as bad as its been I'm completely tossing it. It closes off at H5 and then opens back up and then closes off again, something no other model has done.

[Brian5671]

reminds me of Feb 13, GFS was clueless to the end

[mikemost]

With the GFS being as bad as its been I'm completely tossing it. It closes off at H5 and then opens back up and then closes off again, something no other model has done.

If I'm looking at it right (please someone correct me if I'm wrong), it doesn't show the trough going negative until around 1-2pm... It looks like it's already neutral, if not going negative as I type this. So that off the bat to me is suspicious.

[MJO812]

12+ for NYC

reminds me of Feb 13, GFS was clueless to the end

GFS is always clueless when it comes to big east coast storms

[WintersGrasp]

reminds me of Feb 13, GFS was clueless to the end

Could very well be, especially considering the new "upgrade" is getting its first go-around with an extreme storm here. Kind of strange that not only is it east of the euro/NAM though, but still even east of its own previous run I'm a bit concerned about the RGEM though. I've found it to be a very good model, especially this code to an event it's been very very good. I know it's always said, but as long as the euro holds serve, which of course we're expecting it to, then it really has to be a now casting event as that would mean we really can't rely on any model other than it