Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[Animal]

sim radar on the nam looks decent at hr 15

[Allsnow]

Nam is coming in wet...beautiful

[IsentropicLift]

Everything on the NAM is shifted 50 miles NW. Some areas are absolutly crushed before midnight tonight.

[Allsnow]

Hr 19 heavy snow for the 95 area. Light to mod by yanksfan and western nj

[IsentropicLift]

Instead of jumping East under the strong convection and robbing the west side, the low center is further West and the moisture is much more balanced. Ripping by late tonight pretty much everywhere.

[Allsnow]

Closed off at a perfect spot...hr 20 crush job...everyone

[IsentropicLift]

The SLP is also running about 4mb deeper so far.

[Allsnow]

Hr 22 jersey crushed and nyc with CCB

[Allsnow]

Honestly it looks like boxing day...qpf Maximus over nyc jersey and se mass

[IsentropicLift]

The city is close to 2" liquid by hr 24. The 1"+ contour is NW of MMU.

[Allsnow]

Hr 24 still dumping. Euro ftw win CCB heaven

[PB GFI]

The NAM is insane from coastal NJ NJ LI CT NNJ.

Absurd .

[MJO812]

Destroyed at hour 24.

[IsentropicLift]

The strongest banding just clips West of the city, LI and coastal NJ get crushed and then up into Dutchess County areas and points NE.

[jm1220]

Glad to see the models finally catch up with the upper air depictions they had. A rapidly deepening storm that closes off over southern NJ won't be a run-of-the-mill event for NYC, that's for sure. 

 

That deformation band on the west side is going to be hellacious to watch unfold. Some of the heaviest totals in the entire storm are likely to be where that sets up.

[IsentropicLift]

The 700mb VV maps show the strong subsidence well just NW of the band, and then a secondary band out towards MMU

 

[PB GFI]

NAM says BECS

[MJO812]

CCB still going at hour 27. Over 2 inches of liquid and still going.

[IsentropicLift]

It never deepens further than 977mb as the mid-levels close off and the system becomes vertically stacked. 

[Pilotwx]

Hope u guys up North get nailed I'm in NC. Looks to me that the storm is developing farther south off the coast of nc which I think in turn means a longer duration of the storm. Good luck and stay safe

[MJO812]

12z Nam shows 40 inches for NYC

[Zelocita Weather]

WOW!!!!!

 

1.5" in W NJ, 2" just past EWR, parts of the city/W LI 2.5+.....yikes!

[Nygmen]

lol i get about 45 inches        

[Rtd208]

The 700mb VV maps show the strong subsidence well just NW of the band, and then a secondary band out towards MMU

 

 

If this wind up being correct, all of eastern NJ and part of the city would be in the subsidence.

[gibson14]

So basically if you are under those really negative numbers that's not a good thing?

The 700mb VV maps show the strong subsidence well just NW of the band, and then a secondary band out towards MMU

 

[IsentropicLift]

So basically if you are under those really negative numbers that's not a good thing?

You want to be in the darker areas. The lighter areas represent less lift.

[PB GFI]

If you cut the NAM s totals in half its 2 Feet at KNYC 

[danstorm]

You want to be in the darker areas. The lighter areas represent less lift.

 

Fingerpaint.

[swamplover56]

If this wind up being correct, all of eastern NJ and part of the city would be in the subsidence.

Yes but it's anyone's guess where that will end up in 24 hours from now

[stlirish]

If this wind up being correct, all of eastern NJ and part of the city would be in the subsidence.

Not long enough to get 35-40" haha

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