Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[PB GFI]

GEFS 6Z ensembles now 1.5 at KNYC .

 

Closing in on the Euro .

[PB GFI]

Kudos to you when everyone especially myself were doubting everything. May the good vibes continue. 

 

My only point was those guys at 2pm yesterday had no choice but to think 30 in NYC was a real possibility and if they missed it , it would be far worse than hurting some people`s feelings .

You just can`t give a small lead time into a huge event like this

As it is , its starting to look like 20 - 25 at KNYC and 25 plus on Long Island are LIKELY .  And if you get 22 or 28 its getting blown around by 50 MPH gusts , you are not going to be able to tell the difference .

 

20 to 25 in NYC is a lot of snow and is going to effect a lot of people . Those guys were sweating last nite and cut totals to 18 to 24 this morning , but I thought they made the right call

 

Hope all enjoy

[BxWeatherwatcher]

It's crazy to think that it's 20 degrees and still dropping,these ratios are going to be pretty high when it does snow.Most of the area is going to have 15-18 to 1 ratios,even at 1.5 inches of liquid it becomes 2+ feet of snow for pretty much everyone east of the delaware river valley.Also of note are the bands already forming and coming northwest off the ocean,looks like a running start for n.y.c later on today.

[PB GFI]

Is 3 feet still a possibility anywhere from NYC to Central Long Island?

 

 

That`s the really high end , I personally do not think so but I think you may see a 28 with 6 foot drifts and that's  not going to suck . Great storm if it turns out that way

[IrishRob17]

My only point was those guys at 2pm yesterday had no choice but to think 30 in NYC was a real possibility and if they missed it , it would be far worse than hurting some people`s feelings .

You just can`t give a small lead time into a huge event like this

As it is , its starting to look like 20 - 25 at KNYC and 25 plus on Long Island are LIKELY . And if you get 22 or 28 its getting blown around by 50 MPH gusts , you are not going to be able to tell the difference .

20 to 25 in NYC is a lot of snow and is going to effect a lot of people . Those guys were sweating last nite and cut totals to 18 to 24 this morning , but I thought they made the right call

Hope all enjoy

All good points. Furthermore, most of the general public doesn't actually measure and I would argue they can't tell the difference between 12" or 18" for example. They are going to think whatever they heard/saw as a forecast is the amount that actually fell.

[Guest Pamela]

I just woke up and saw the NAM...OMG!

[jdt]

Is 3 feet still a possibility anywhere from NYC to Central Long Island?

I would say yes it is possible but no definite by any means. To say exactly where it might occur is very difficult. It all depends on where the best banding sets-up, how intense it is and how long it remains in place over any given area. If max potential is reached the I do believe a few 3 foot totals are possible. As it looks now the likely area that could potentially occur in our region is somewhere from NE NJ, NYC, LI up into the LHV into parts of CT. Just remember minor wobbles in track of slp and placement of banding could lead to significant differences between the currently anticipated accumulations versus the final outcome. Very dynamic system which as been exciting to track and will be even more exciting to watch unfold over the next 24-36hrs.

[PB GFI]

I just woke up and saw the NAM...OMG!

KNYC

 

Euro 2.3

GEFS 1.5         2 plus for you

RGEM 1.6        2 plus for you

NAM 2              2.2 for you

[PB GFI]

All good points. Furthermore, most of the general public doesn't actually measure and I would argue they can't tell the difference between 12" or 18" for example. They are going to think whatever they heard/saw as a forecast is the amount that actually fell.

Agree I cant wait to see the pics come out of the east end where they get 2.5 and 70mph wind gusts ( How do you measure that ) .

 

The radar is going to look great later tonite as this takes on an eye wall feature and the banding moves east to west .

It will look Tropical

[bluewave]

My only point was those guys at 2pm yesterday had no choice but to think 30 in NYC was a real possibility and if they missed it , it would be far worse than hurting some people`s feelings .

You just can`t give a small lead time into a huge event like this

As it is , its starting to look like 20 - 25 at KNYC and 25 plus on Long Island are LIKELY .  And if you get 22 or 28 its getting blown around by 50 MPH gusts , you are not going to be able to tell the difference .

 

20 to 25 in NYC is a lot of snow and is going to effect a lot of people . Those guys were sweating last nite and cut totals to 18 to 24 this morning , but I thought they made the right call

 

Hope all enjoy

 

Yeah, the differences in totals when the snow amounts reach those levels are just noise anyway since this is going to

be all about the drifting. Anything over 15" in NYC is essentially a top 15 event with the 2000's already

overrepresented.

 

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/BiggestSnowstorms.pdf

[SnoSki14]

I think 12:1 ratios are possible but due to wind it seems anything that much higher would be difficult. 18-24" is very reasonable and Mt. Holly followed for the surrounding counties like Middlesex (previous said 18-28").

Almost nowcasting time after one more data set 12z. After that short range modeling become a factor. I could see the Euro ticking a bit more east to match up with other guidance unless they decide to go further west.

[donsutherland1]

 The GFS is prob not done trending . Just a stunning display of model physics once again in a big event here on the east coast .

 

Paul,

 

We're now poised for the GFS's 3rd big bust on qpf relative to the ECMWF since its recent upgrade, if in fact the ECMWF again proves to have the better forecast as increasingly appears likely. That some of its recent failures have been monumental in the short range e.g., its miss of the 2.10" rainfall in NYC on 1/18, should be of particular concern.

 

IMO, unless there is very strong synoptic evidence to back it, when the ECMWF and GFS differ wildly, one should take the ECMWF's output. That 2 and possibly 3 high profile failures occurred over such a short period of time suggests that one is not dealing with the kind of coincidence that can be ignored.   

 

Others should take note.

[PB GFI]

The differences in totals when the snow amounts reach those levels are just noise anyway since this is going to

be all about the drifting. Anything over 15" in NYC is essentially a top ten event with the 2000's already

overrepresented.

 

20 gets you into the top 5 . I think that's why I went nuts here last nite , because the default amounts were 1.25 and if it busted we busted to 15 .

[Guest Pamela]

KNYC

 

Euro 2.3

GEFS 1.5         2 plus for you

RGEM 1.6        2 plus for you

NAM 2              2.2 for you

 

 

Even 6 hours ago I was like...

 

 

 

Thing that puzzles me is that the cyclone is an absolutely ideal position...with good upper level support... and is of sufficient barometric depth to manifest a more impressive precipitation shield than some of these models are showing...

 

These things are damn hard to figure...

[PB GFI]

Paul,

 

We're now poised for the GFS's 3rd big bust on qpf relative to the ECMWF since its recent upgrade, if in fact the ECMWF again proves to have the better forecast as increasingly appears likely. That some of its recent failures have been monumental in the short range e.g., its miss of the 2.10" rainfall in NYC on 1/18, should be of particular concern.

 

IMO, unless there is very strong synoptic evidence to back it, when the ECMWF and GFS differ wildly, one should take the ECMWF's output. That 2 and possibly 3 high profile failures occurred over such a short period of time suggests that one is not dealing with the kind of coincidence that can be ignored.   

 

Others should take note.

 

I just hate that it steps on the gas , then it steps on the brakes

The Euro seeing 2.3 at the park and the GEFS 1.5 is meh . But the length of time it took to get there and the manner in which this model gets to its solutions on the East coast  makes forecasting nuts .

[IrishRob17]

Agree I cant wait to see the pics come out of the east end where they get 2.5 and 70mph wind gusts ( How do you measure that )

Measurement will be a challenge for many. I've had three inch snowfalls that once it started blowing around after the fact there were drifts of 12". That's obviously a smaller scale of what about to happen over the next 48 hours.

[PB GFI]

We are going to snow in the teens with 35 mph sustained winds with 50 mph gusts . Do not get caught outside tonite .

[Allsnow]

Paul,

We're now poised for the GFS's 3rd big bust on qpf relative to the ECMWF since its recent upgrade, if in fact the ECMWF again proves to have the better forecast as increasingly appears likely. That some of its recent failures have been monumental in the short range e.g., its miss of the 2.10" rainfall in NYC on 1/18, should be of particular concern.

IMO, unless there is very strong synoptic evidence to back it, when the ECMWF and GFS differ wildly, one should take the ECMWF's output. That 2 and possibly 3 high profile failures occurred over such a short period of time suggests that one is not dealing with the kind of coincidence that can be ignored.

Others should take note.

Tons of truth in this post

[donsutherland1]

I just hate that it steps on the gas , then it steps on the brakes

The Euro seeing 2.3 at the park and the GEFS 1.5 is meh . But the length of time it took to get there and the manner in which this model gets to its solutions on the East coast  makes forecasting nuts .

I agree. It's agonizing. One almost wonders if a "sticky" is needed before potential big events so that all are aware of the GFS's recent behavior.

[ILoveWinter]

Man thank God I went to bed before the Euro as I would have been too excited to sleep after seeing the Euro basically hold serve (outside of western areas).  Happy to see the NAM and GFS head towards a Euro solution too.  If the Euro runs for these past few days verify, it will just prove the models awesomeness - particularly with these large synoptic situations that other models have trouble handling.

[PB GFI]

I agree. It's agonizing. One almost wonders if a "sticky" is needed before potential big events so that all are aware of the GFS's recent behavior.

 

It killed the European in the Hemisphere since Nov . So the model is a GOOD MODEL ..

 

It is just BAD on the EAST COAST . I am sure everyone sees it , the NCEP packages are so deep and money is tight so maybe it`s only important to us and its not that important in the grand scheme .

[bluewave]

20 gets you into the top 5 . I think that's why I went nuts here last nite , because the default amounts were 1.25 and if it busted we busted to 15 .

 

That's right. The big story is that this is quickly going to make NYC forget that the biggest event through 1/25

was only 2.5 inches. A 20" number in NYC would just about bring the season to average added to the 

the 5.7" to date. This will be one of the best winter comeback stories after a lackluster 12/1-1/25.

Thinking game 6 in the 86 World Series for the Mets.

[donsutherland1]

It killed the European in the Hemisphere since Nov . So the model is a GOOD MODEL ..

 

It is just BAD on the EAST COAST . I am sure everyone sees it , the NCEP packages are so deep and money is tight so maybe it`s only important to us and its not that important in the grand scheme .

I don't disagree. I'm referring to this forum, only. One should be aware of its limitations and our region happens to be impacted by what seems to be a limitation.

 

Finally, I also strongly believe that NCEP is doing an amazing job with far less funding (at least in my opinion) than what should be the case.

[PB GFI]

I don't disagree. I'm referring to this forum, only. One should be aware of its limitations and our region happens to be impacted by what seems to be a limitation.

 

Finally, I also strongly believe that NCEP is doing an amazing job with far less funding (at least in my opinion) than what should be the case.

 

If the Euro was 1st with this , the SREFs were 2 . I agree with the sticky .( Warning adjust NW ) . There is a day 8 storm , next week on the maps .

Looks like 66 . There is a Strong southern system that may run from OBX  to CC . With the BL in the single digits .

So if that happens , we will back here throwing knives again , you can count on it  .

 If that comes out and up .

[PB GFI]

That's right. The big story is that this is quickly going to make NYC forget that the biggest event through 1/25

was only 2.5 inches. A 20" number in NYC would just about bring the season to average added to the 

the 5.7" to date. This will be one of the best winter comeback stories after a lackluster 12/1-1/25.

Thinking game 6 in the 86 World Series for the Mets.

 

Its always nice when you can get  to your yearly total in just 36 hours .

[donsutherland1]

If the Euro was 1st with this , the SREFs were 2 . I agree with the sticky .( Warning adjust NW ) . There is a day 8 storm , next week on the maps .

Looks like 66 . There is a Strong southern system that may run from OBX  to CC . With the BL in the single digits .

So if that happens , we will back here throwing knives again , you can count on it  .

 If that comes out and up .

Very well said. Of course, it's probably better that there is "knife throwing" about possible storms than agonizing about unrelenting warmth.

[RU848789]

So now we have a much large discrepancy between the Euro, which held serve, precip-wise, but did move east, and the rest of the models. Now what are the pros gonna do?  I don't envy them tonight.  However, forecasting is not just taking the average of the models - it's quite possible the Euro is correct and the rest are wrong, but the reverse is also possible. Given how good the Euro was on the last storm and has been for years for east coast snowstorms, here's what I would do - not that anyone is asking me, lol.  

 

I'd lean towards the Euro still being correct, but given the disparity, I'd hedge at least some and drop the snowfall forecasts by about 10-20%, except for LI and CT, which are still likely to get 24" or more.  If 18-24" was predicted for NYC, for example, instead of 24-36", and if 30" fell, nobody would really care, much, whereas if 24-36" is predicted and 16" falls, it'll look like a major bust.  I'd use the same logic for the rest of the swaths of snowfall, i.e., I'd reduce the 18-24" swath through much of NJ to 12-18" and then reduce the 14-18" band for SE PA, including Philly, and most of South Jersey, to 8-12” and forecast a bit less for points west and SW of there, like the Poconos, Lehigh Valley and Delaware. 

 

Hey, this is almost exactly what the NWS did.  Figured I'd toot my own horn at least a little.  

[PB GFI]

Hey, this is almost exactly what the NWS did.  Figured I'd toot my own horn at least a little.  

 

I high five myself here all the time , No shame in that   ha . Nice work .

[bluewave]

Its always nice when you can get  to your yearly total in just 36 hours .

 

It's remarkable that we can do it on the Euro going from a fish to a KU blizzard in just 24 hrs time. 

I guess the motto here in the 2000's is to expect the unexpected weather event extremes.

[UKStormFan]

Just a quick question from the UK. 

 

1) Do we have any live stream TV forecast stations covering the event constantly? TWC for example..but local.