Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

You guys go from ripping the NAM apart to dry-humping it to death.

Take a breath and realize what this looked like six hours ago.

If u go back and see my posts when everyone was tearing me a new one, I had full faith in the euros ability to digest a miller b and captures far better than the nam and GFS, I also guaranteed the nam would come back west.. I never doubted it... and I'm breathing a sigh of relief lol

[anemone]

NWS just brought the storm totals down, as of 3:15am.

 

[jdt]

Just more reason to believe the steady hand of the euro. Basically a foot plus all of nj with 16-24" much of the eastern half of NJ from about toms river north. Keeps the serious cutoff at or a little west of Delaware.

[MJO812]

Looks like it still snows after that to.

Yep

 

NWS just brought the storm totals down, as of 3:15am.

 

Good call

[Nibor]

NWS just brought the storm totals down, as of 3:15am.

 

I think this would have been a better forecast from the get go.  In the bulletin they could have said that local areas could receive 30 inches or more. 

[snywx]

NWS just brought the storm totals down, as of 3:15am.

 

 

This should have been their initial call.. Good call nonetheless..

[BxWeatherwatcher]

We can already see the transfer process ongoing currently,as the precip shield is blowing up in virginia and tilting up the coast heading up to a new york state of mind.This looks great as progged right now and the west shift is the correction with convective feedback issues.THIS IS NOW A NOWCAST SITUATION AS WELL.

[Blizzardo]

I saved that 24-36 map. You'll probably never see that again.. Well maybe later..lol but not for another storm.

I'll take 18-24 with lollipops to 30+

[CooL]

NAM!

[ineedsnow]

old map still up for me and i refreshed

I saved that 24-36 map. You'll probably never see that again.. Well maybe later..lol but not for another storm.

I'll take 18-24 with lollipops to 30+

[Blizzardo]

old map still up for me and i refreshed

New map,

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php

[Superstorm93]

The transfer can be seen taking place with convection developing offshore. 

 

[ineedsnow]

doesnt make sense really look at there precip map unless they are going 10 to 1

New map,
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php

[Superstorm93]

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

329 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD TO IMPACT THE AREA

FROM LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY...

CTZ006>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-262100-

/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/

NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-

SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-

SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-

EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-

RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-

NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-

NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-

329 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO

MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY AND SURROUNDING IMMEDIATE SUBURBS...

LONG ISLAND...AND MOST OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

 

[Allsnow]

Hr24 gfs heavy snow to nyc

[Allsnow]

Hr 27 heAvy snow back to phl

[Allsnow]

Nyc close to a inch on the gfs and .75 back to ttn

[CooL]

Big step towards the euro on the gfs. 

[Allsnow]

Gfs is 10-12 for nyc

12+ for long island

[Nibor]

6z GFS is definitely a tick west of 0z but sitll has the heaviest banding east of NYC.

[Morris]

This is why Euro is king.

[PB GFI]

Stunning  On the day of the event , the  GFS now sees the stop at the BM , KNYC Is close to 1.3 an increase from its .8 at 0z  and 1.6 onto Long Island

So the model now sees KNYC 15 and 20 onto Long Island .

 

The NAM now sees the capture at the BM , brings the 1 inch line back to the hills of NWNJ 1.5 back to KMMU

1.9 to KNYC and all the way through Monmouth and Ocean counties and 2 inch plus from LGA across all of Long Island

and 2.2 from KISP east .

The NAM sees KNYC 24 across Long Island to 26 from KISP east .

 

Dave`s EURO ETA rule . The GFS is prob not done trending . Just a stunning display of model physics once again in a big event here on the east coast .

 

 

 

[sferic]

What are the latest QPF amounts for KJFK?

[PB GFI]

The RGEM this morning is 40mm or 1.6 . At 12 to 1 that's 20 at KNYC .

The 50 mm line is from KISP east 2 inches of liquid or 24 Suffolk County east .

[PB GFI]

What are the latest QPF amounts for KJFK?

KJFK

RGEM 1.6

NAM 2

EURO 2.3

 

 

GFS 

1.1 to JFK 

1.4 to East Meadow

1.7 to Plainview

1.8 to Dix hills

2 KISP  . 

Not done trending west  

[tmagan]

The RGEM this morning is 40mm or 1.6 . At 12 to 1 that's 20 at KNYC .

The 50 mm line is from KISP east 2 inches of liquid or 24 Suffolk County east .

I do not think the 50 mm isohyet is that far west.

[SnoSki14]

The RGEM this morning is 40mm or 1.6 . At 12 to 1 that's 20 at KNYC .

The 50 mm line is from KISP east 2 inches of liquid or 24 Suffolk County east .

Kudos to you when everyone especially myself were doubting everything. May the good vibes continue. 

[sferic]

KJFK

RGEM 1.6

NAM 2

EURO 2.3

 

 

GFS 

1.1 to JFK 

1.4 to East Meadow

1.7 to Plainview

1.8 to Dix hills

2 KISP  . 

Not done trending west  

THANK YOU !!

[danstorm]

You guys go from ripping the NAM apart to dry-humping it to death.

Take a breath and realize what this looked like six hours ago.

Please PLEASE ignore the NAM... it's a grade school model that likes pretty colors. As you astutely said, it's resolution is too fine for its own good.

[PB GFI]

I do not think the 50 mm isohyet is that far west.

 

I can`t post the map. I see KISP .