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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions


Morris

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You guys go from ripping the NAM apart to dry-humping it to death.

Take a breath and realize what this looked like six hours ago.

If u go back and see my posts when everyone was tearing me a new one, I had full faith in the euros ability to digest a miller b and captures far better than the nam and GFS, I also guaranteed the nam would come back west.. I never doubted it... ;) and I'm breathing a sigh of relief lol

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We can already see the transfer process ongoing currently,as the precip shield is blowing up in virginia and tilting up the coast heading up to a new york state of mind.This looks great as progged right now and the west shift is the correction with convective feedback issues.THIS IS NOW A NOWCAST SITUATION AS WELL. :snowing:

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

329 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD TO IMPACT THE AREA

FROM LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY...

CTZ006>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-262100-

/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/

NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-

SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-

SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-

EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-

RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-

NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-

NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-

329 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO

MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY AND SURROUNDING IMMEDIATE SUBURBS...

LONG ISLAND...AND MOST OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

 
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Stunning  On the day of the event , the  GFS now sees the stop at the BM , KNYC Is close to 1.3 an increase from its .8 at 0z  and 1.6 onto Long Island

So the model now sees KNYC 15 and 20 onto Long Island .

 

The NAM now sees the capture at the BM , brings the 1 inch line back to the hills of NWNJ 1.5 back to KMMU

1.9 to KNYC and all the way through Monmouth and Ocean counties and 2 inch plus from LGA across all of Long Island

and 2.2 from KISP east .

The NAM sees KNYC 24 across Long Island to 26 from KISP east .

 

Dave`s EURO ETA rule . The GFS is prob not done trending . Just a stunning display of model physics once again in a big event here on the east coast .

 

 

 

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You guys go from ripping the NAM apart to dry-humping it to death.

Take a breath and realize what this looked like six hours ago.

Please PLEASE ignore the NAM... it's a grade school model that likes pretty colors. As you astutely said, it's resolution is too fine for its own good.

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