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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

Posted
Posted

Totally agree with this line of thinking RC. Mets there already went all-in...can't really back down now unless/until the Euro does.

Yep, it *might* have been better to play things a bit more conservatively with amounts today, but the decision was made. For the February 2011 blizzard, we forecasted extreme amounts for a Midwest storm over 48 hours in advance, and we basically rode that initial forecast from when the blizzard watch went out. It worked out, but we were lucky that it did perfectly for the Chicago area, because some CWAs had notable busts with that storm, as I know you're well aware ;)

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

I've heard rumors the NAM is in it's final years, not sure how true that is

 

It seemed better 10 years ago...when it was right about one out of every three tries...

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted

Yep, it *might* have been better to play things a bit more conservatively with amounts today, but the decision was made. For the February 2011 blizzard, we forecasted extreme amounts for a Midwest storm over 48 hours in advance, and we basically rode that initial forecast from when the blizzard watch went out. It worked out, but we were lucky that it did perfectly for the Chicago area, because some CWAs had notable busts with that storm, as I know you're well aware ;)

Thank you for stopping in RC. Your insight and input is much appreciated.
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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

Noaa

 

My forecast. This is pretty epic.

 


Overnight: A chance of snow after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. Northeast wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

Monday: A chance of snow before 7am, then snow likely between 7am and 10am, then snow with widespread blowing snow after 10am. High near 27. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. Blustery, with a northeast wind 17 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

 

Monday Night: Snow with widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 22. Wind chill values between 5 and 10. Windy, with a north wind 24 to 29 mph increasing to 32 to 37 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.

 

Tuesday: Snow with widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 26. Wind chill values between 5 and 10. Windy, with a north wind around 37 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.

 

Tuesday Night: Snow with widespread blowing snow before 1am, then widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow between 1am and 4am, then widespread blowing snow and a slight chance of snow after 4am. Low around 16. Windy, with a northwest wind 24 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

Ratios would likely be better in those areas though.

 

They will be better... but going from 12:1 to 15:1 ratio when your precip total is cut in half won't make that up. 

 

The RGEM tried to retrograde it but was weakened with the 2 SLP centers , but that`s the Euro`s game plan here . I said earlier someone is wrong in the N Atlantic . The Euro captures this at our latitude . That`s why yelling east was not the break in the forecast its the retrogression .

 

With the retrogression it`s 2.5 into KNYC all the other guidance are closing in on 1.25 SREF 4KNAM RGEM GGEM GEFS .

So the default totals are 15 at the park , more east .

The ceiling is 30 , they will both be accompanied by 50 mph winds , so its a blizzard regardless .

 

The RGEM and 4km NAM do retrograde the system somewhat... the problem is they are too far east to really get the precipitation shield back to NYC. 

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Neblizzard

Neblizzard

Posted
Posted

I think in either 04-05 or 05-06 the NAM was unstoppable, it had a winter it got every storm right, I'm not sure it got worse or every other model got better

How about the way if handled the feb 2010 snowmageddon? It showed the cutoff just south of us for days on end, and if wound up being right. The model was deadly for that storm. Far as the data tonight ..I'm stunned that the euro pretty much held serve. I will be shocked if it's wrong from this close in. It's a great model as we all know but imo if the models don't tremd west at 6z and especially 12z tomorrow...we will see the euro go a bit further east. The stall idea also remains a mystery. We shall see...

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Look at the RAP...keeps it essentialy dry over L.I. for about 15 of the next 18 hours or thereabouts...not that Monday morning was supposed to be terribly snowy...but still...if there was ever a model I detested with a passion...it is that one. 

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

Posted
Posted

Thank you for stopping in RC. Your insight and input is much appreciated.

Much obliged. I have a definite rooting interest in this storm, since I grew up in Queens and started my NWS career at OKX. The trends of all the other 00z guidance had me very worried, and I'm still nervous for the city and points west/NW. But the most reliable model not shifting as far east and still bringing the big qpf/snow amounts to NYC makes me believe it's gonna be closer to the actual outcome than the rest of the guidance.
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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

Phil what's your gut tell you?

 

Haha... I try not the forecast from my gut, because my gut is biased. However, I will tell you what I'm watching tonight, where the convection develops offshore of the US. There are two focal points:

 

vHMoY0a.png

 

Region one is the ongoing convection firing over Florida tonight. You might think that this is well away from where the synoptic cyclone is going to develop, but this convection as it continues to move quickly to the northeast may play an important role in the moisture transport into the primary cyclone. If this region continues to blossom at the expense of the convection further north, it might limit our budding primary cyclone of the gross moisture flux it needs to undergo rapid cyclogenesis. As a secondary effect it might produce a diabatic rossby wave, which with its own PV anomaly will tend to nudge the entire system east. So as you can see convection is this region is bad for a stronger and further west cyclone.

 

Region two is the convection just initiating off the Carolina coastline. This convection will probably be more beneficial to surface cyclogenesis off the eastern US coastline and also may play a role in downstream height rises that could retard the forward motion of the entire synoptic system. We want to see convection blossom here at the expensive of the convection over FL.

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lindywx

lindywx

Posted
Posted

As DT stated earlier, the key to the forecast is the capture and stall.  This may end up playing out like the blizzard of 78  While that clipper/mauler  traversed the country further north in 78, eventually it bombed and stalled 7mb weaker in the same location off of MTP  that is being depicted by the Euro  984mb in 78 vs, 977mb tomorrow. If you were around in 78 you will recall that it was a 2 part storm with a foot across the area on the front end followed by a 3 hour lull, then another foot across LI after the stall.There was significantly less snow on the backside as you traveled west because  of where the banding set up  There was no radar available to look at minute by minute like today but I suspect that was the case. So I expect totals similar to 1978 if the Euro is right 

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