Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[Nygmen]

i highly doubt the euro moves more than 20 miles in either direction from here on out...i really thought it was gunna make a big jump tnight but it seems locked in minus a wobbles here and there

[NEXtreme]

That's because the ECMWF did shift east... not enough to keep NYC out of the huge accumulations, but the edge that was back in CPA and CNY has shifted a good 50 miles east.

Ratios would likely be better in those areas though.

[PB GFI]

That's because the ECMWF did shift east... not enough to keep NYC out of the huge accumulations, but the edge that was back in CPA and CNY has shifted a good 50 miles east.

The RGEM tried to retrograde it but was weakened with the 2 SLP centers , but that`s the Euro`s game plan here . I said earlier someone is wrong in the N Atlantic . The Euro captures this at our latitude . That`s why yelling east was not the break in the forecast its the retrogression .

 

With the retrogression it`s 2.5 into KNYC all the other guidance are closing in on 1.25 SREF 4KNAM RGEM GGEM GEFS .

So the default totals are 15 at the park , more east .

The ceiling is 30 , they will both be accompanied by 50 mph winds , so its a blizzard regardless .

[Superstorm93]

I in no way envy the men and women working on the 4am shift tonight at the NWS WFO's. That's a really, really tough call. 

 

I'm pulling hair out trying to think of a balanced forecast where the ECMWF is weighted heavily against the JMA, UKMET, CMC, GFS, RGEM, and NAM. Our best model against everything else. The difference between two feet and eight inches in some cases. 

 

Oh and it would probably be in good taste if we remove the "Historic" out of this thread title. 

[SnoSki14]

The Euro run literally was a weenie life saver at least for 12 more hours. It's so fascinating though how it stuck a huge middle finger to all other guidance. I feel for those forecasters what a tough call.

[Dsnowx53]

The euro did not do that big jump towards convection at hour 21, that the rest of the suite did.

That's the big thing. For I-95 and east, a tick east really doesn't matter much at all unless the storm did the big jump towards the convection. The Euro did not make that jump, so NYC gets dumped on with still plenty of wiggle room...

[jm1220]

The euro did not do that big jump towards convection at hour 21, that the rest of the suite did.

The Euro's superior parameterization should be key in resolving these features and depicting a more reasonable outcome. I just don't see the low lurching due east or ENE when there is a negatively tilting trough. 

[FreeRain]

Wunderground has cut the overnight tomorrow night from 8-12 to 5-8.

Automated GFS?

[anemone]

Total snowfall on the Euro. 30 + inches for NYC.

 

And a 2.3" qpf, which makes the ratio about 1:13.

[pazzo83]

So if the Euro does score the win, we need to look at the actual models (like the code, equations, initial params, etc) used for the GFS, NAM, etc. and the hardware on which they are run.

[jm1220]

I in no way envy the men and women working on the 4am shift tonight at the NWS WFO's. That's a really, really tough call. 

 

I'm pulling hair out trying to think of a balanced forecast where the ECMWF is weighted heavily against the JMA, UKMET, CMC, GFS, RGEM, and NAM. Our best model against everything else. The difference between two feet and eight inches in some cases. 

 

Oh and it would probably be in good taste if we remove the "Historic" out of this thread title. 

It would probably be best to lower amounts for NYC to 18-24" for now-it diminishes totals from the epic amounts this afternoon but still weights the very snowy Euro heavily. I think Mt. Holly is going to have to do more aggressive cuts for Philly and E PA and maybe western NJ. I don't see them getting over a foot and 8" might even be generous.

[NEXtreme]

Meteorologist Joe Cioffi:

EUROPEAN STILL HOLDING FIRM ON HEAVY SNOWS ESPECIALLY FROM NEW YORK CITY EASTWARD

While the new European is a little east of the previous run it still winds up with a low southeast of Long Island in about the same place and is actually a little bit deeper. It shifts the bulls eye snow southeast a bit to cover New York City, Long Island and Western Connecticut.

Over the years one thing I've noticed with storms like this when dealing with cutoff upper air storms. The gfs and nam never handle the western flank of the precipitation well at all...usually under doing it by a factor of 2. I would as a rule take the gfs or nam liquid precipitation on that side and double it. If you apply that to tonights run you wind up with the European rule.

[Dsnowx53]

It would probably be best to lower amounts for NYC to 18-24" for now-it diminishes totals from the epic amounts this afternoon but still weights the very snowy Euro heavily. I think Mt. Holly is going to have to do more aggressive cuts for Philly and E PA and maybe western NJ. I don't see them getting over a foot and 8" might even be generous.

I agree with this.

[Guest Pamela]

Meteorologist Joe Cioffi:

Over the years one thing I've noticed with storms like this when dealing with cutoff upper air storms. The gfs and nam never handle the western flank of the precipitation well at all...usually under doing it by a factor of 2. I would as a rule take the gfs or nam liquid precipitation on that side and double it. If you apply that to tonights run you wind up with the European rule.

 

That is 100% true...the GFS is always too light and too far east...the NAM is simply too erratic & unreliable.

[sferic]

Will Long Island's totals be on par with New York's now 18-24?

[SnowGoose69]

It would probably be best to lower amounts for NYC to 18-24" for now-it diminishes totals from the epic amounts this afternoon but still weights the very snowy Euro heavily. I think Mt. Holly is going to have to do more aggressive cuts for Philly and E PA and maybe western NJ. I don't see them getting over a foot and 8" might even be generous.

If the 06z SREFs or nam didn't make a major jump up and I'm the NWS I may do just that, lower them 6-8 inches or so and hope 12z models don't join the Euro and you have to jump back, I think it's more likely the Euro drops a bit more at 12z then the others all join it, it just seems too late to me at this point

[jm1220]

So if the Euro does score the win, we need to look at the actual models (like the code, equations, initial params, etc) used for the GFS, NAM, etc. and the hardware on which they are run.

The GFS and NAM often have runs like these where they jump towards convection over the Gulf Stream. We go through this with most bombing lows. I remember there was a legit discussion just prior to 12/19/09 whether NYC would essentially get no snow. It might pull a rabbit out of the hat with this storm but I doubt it. It's somewhat surprising to see other models do this though.

[LnbWx]

Probably this belongs in banter. I'm not qualified at all but based on which of Euro or GFS/Rest end up verifying on this storm, it will be a huge loss of confidence on the other. May be they both will save face by treading middle of the line but I don't think it's happening. The difference between them are too pronounced at the moment.  It will be more damaging to GFS with all the upgrades if Euro ends up verifying. 

[Superstorm93]

It would probably be best to lower amounts for NYC to 18-24" for now-it diminishes totals from the epic amounts this afternoon but still weights the very snowy Euro heavily. I think Mt. Holly is going to have to do more aggressive cuts for Philly and E PA and maybe western NJ. I don't see them getting over a foot and 8" might even be generous.

 

I'd think that's probably a good call even though my gut is screaming to go with 14-18" just so you don't have to drop amounts too much if the EURO caves tomorrow. I have an incredibly hard time seeing the EURO cave six hours before a storm though. It'd be pretty much unheard of. 

[Guest Pamela]

That is 100% true...the GFS is always too light and too far east...the NAM is simply too erratic & unreliable.

 

And Joe Cioffi has been the best television meteorologist in this region for decades...

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Meteorologist Joe Cioffi:

EUROPEAN STILL HOLDING FIRM ON HEAVY SNOWS ESPECIALLY FROM NEW YORK CITY EASTWARD

While the new European is a little east of the previous run it still winds up with a low southeast of Long Island in about the same place and is actually a little bit deeper. It shifts the bulls eye snow southeast a bit to cover New York City, Long Island and Western Connecticut.

Over the years one thing I've noticed with storms like this when dealing with cutoff upper air storms. The gfs and nam never handle the western flank of the precipitation well at all...usually under doing it by a factor of 2. I would as a rule take the gfs or nam liquid precipitation on that side and double it. If you apply that to tonights run you wind up with the European rule.

 

Joe Cioffi has spoken! 

[RCNYILWX]

My friend is doing the forecast tonight and my guess is he doesn't back off at all for most of NE NJ, NYC, and east, but lower amounts in Orange County and maybe parts of Pasaic and Putnam. Since the huge amounts were put out today, I don't think it would be prudent to back off until it becomes absolutely clear that they'll have to, if that occurs.

[yhbrooklyn]

When people ask me why tv mets are so often wrong and how lame it is that they can't pinpoint totals, this is a case study.

Meteorologists are not clairvoyant, they use models as guidance. And when models behave like this, it makes you tear your hair out.

[SnowGoose69]

The GFS and NAM often have runs like these where they jump towards convection over the Gulf Stream. We go through this with most bombing lows. I remember there was a legit discussion just prior to 12/19/09 whether NYC would essentially get no snow. It might pull a rabbit out of the hat with this storm but I doubt it. It's somewhat surprising to see other models do this though.

The 06Z GFS or NAM Friday morning before that storm had zero for the area, literally about 30 minutes after upton put out blizzard watches, it wasn't til the 12z runs that morning 24 hours before the storm that they joined the Euro unanimously.

[jm1220]

If the 06z SREFs or nam didn't make a major jump up and I'm the NWS I may do just that, lower them 6-8 inches or so and hope 12z models don't join the Euro and you have to jump back, I think it's more likely the Euro drops a bit more at 12z then the others all join it, it just seems too late to me at this point

I have to think the outcome is much more like the Euro than the other guidance which all leaped at the convection offshore. This error has come up so many times, and the Euro just isn't wrong like this at this stage. It might be a little east of where the Euro is now at the end, but that still gives NYC a huge snowstorm and Long Island/New England a top ten all-time blizzard. The real losers are probably the Philly/Delaware River area.

[Dsnowx53]

Another thing, while yes the clipper is moving a bit faster than guidance, we're still getting a nice negatively tilted trough. The east tick the Euro did was probably a result of an initial slightly further east/faster clipper.

However, that shouldn't have anything to do with a surface low jumping towards an area of convection 24 hours later. As long as the Euro isn't doing that, the tick east shouldn't be worrysome. The main reason why most other guidance shifted east was because of that convection, probably more-so than the initial forward speed of the clipper, IMO.

[Guest Pamela]

The 06Z GFS or NAM Friday morning before that storm had zero for the area, literally about 30 minutes after upton put out blizzard watches, it wasn't til the 12z runs that morning 24 hours before the storm that they joined the Euro unanimously.

 

These fluctuations are de rigueur...they happen all the time. 

[Hoosier]

My friend is doing the forecast tonight and my guess is he doesn't back off at all for most of NE NJ, NYC, and east, but lower amounts in Orange County and maybe parts of Pasaic and Putnam. Since the huge amounts were put out today, I don't think it would be prudent to back off until it becomes absolutely clear that they'll have to, if that occurs.

 

 

Totally agree with this line of thinking RC.  Mets there already went all-in...can't really back down now unless/until the Euro does.

[SnoSki14]

Blossoming of the radar to our west. 

[ag3]

I in no way envy the men and women working on the 4am shift tonight at the NWS WFO's. That's a really, really tough call.

I'm pulling hair out trying to think of a balanced forecast where the ECMWF is weighted heavily against the JMA, UKMET, CMC, GFS, RGEM, and NAM. Our best model against everything else. The difference between two feet and eight inches in some cases.

Oh and it would probably be in good taste if we remove the "Historic" out of this thread title.

It's not tough if the NAM makes a huge shift west.

It would mean that the suite suffered with the same 0z data.