Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[Nygmen]

lol i get jackpotted 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

This East shift really dampers EPA but almost everyone in this forum is at the low end of their previously forcasted number 18+ for most

[Rjay]

DT saying Euro DID NOT SHIFT EAST.

I'll tell you what, would anybody be shocked if the rest of the models begin to shift west now?

I expect them to shift west and the Euro to tick east again at 12z. Predicting models is stupid but they do need to come to a concensus.

[Zir0b]

This East shift really dampers EPA but almost everyone in this forum is at the low end of their previously forcasted number 18+ for most

maybe for you...not North Central NJ/NYC 

[Superstorm93]

Disclaimer: THIS IS NOT THE 12z 

 

[Guest Pamela]

Thank you Dr. Maue 

 

 

I'm not trying to be a jerk here...but over interior SE NY and parts of NJ...that is a noticeable cutback from the 12z run.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

And to me it doesn't look like the track shifts just the extent of the Western precip shield but I'm no met so I may be wrong

[SnoSki14]

Based on the Euro it's either one of two things. Either the Euro is still correcting towards the other guidance, which would be reflected in the upcoming 12z run or the other guidance have over corrected and will, as Larry C., said possibly come back west again. 

 

I wouldn't be so quick to claim victory it certainly shifted east from its last run towards the other models but now we'll have to wait and see if the other models took it too far east. 

[WintersGrasp]

Who`s the first to step up and apologize to Upton and Mt Holly ?

Great job by the offices .

I'll be the first to apologize for my comments.....tomorrow.....I'm still doubtful we see what this is showing.....but I'd gladly take the big can of whoop*** from sir Euro if it is correct. Nice job to those who said itd stick to its guns, you included man

[FreeRain]

lol i get jackpotted 

NE Nassau to Fairfield Co.

[Superstorm93]

I'm not trying to be a jerk here...but over interior SE NY and parts of NJ...that is a noticeable cutback from the 12z run.

 

To whom? With all due respect I said that the heavy banding stops over NE NJ and precip totals are down east of there. 

[PB GFI]

Now that`s a model ,  8 straight runs and it did not move 5 feet . 

[killabud]

"east" isn't the issue clearly for nyc east

 

 

it's how the other models handled the convection

 

euro is better at it

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

I'm not trying to be a jerk here...but over interior SE NY and parts of NJ...that is a noticeable cutback from the 12z run.

I'm still at over 20+ inches with a 1.7"qpf

[Minnesota Meso]

Hope you guys and gals don't mind a bit of input from out here in fly over land.  Regarding what Mount Holly will do.  To me it's a no brainier, go with the model that has shown the best consistency.

[jm1220]

DT saying Euro DID NOT SHIFT EAST.

I'll tell you what, would anybody be shocked if the rest of the models begin to shift west now?

I think it'll be a compromise weighted towards the Euro. 

[RU848789]

So now we have a much large discrepancy between the Euro, which held serve, precip-wise, but did move east, and the rest of the models. Now what are the pros gonna do?  I don't envy them tonight.  However, forecasting is not just taking the average of the models - it's quite possible the Euro is correct and the rest are wrong, but the reverse is also possible. Given how good the Euro was on the last storm and has been for years for east coast snowstorms, here's what I would do - not that anyone is asking me, lol.  

 

I'd lean towards the Euro still being correct, but given the disparity, I'd hedge at least some and drop the snowfall forecasts by about 10-20%, except for LI and CT, which are still likely to get 24" or more.  If 18-24" was predicted for NYC, for example, instead of 24-36", and if 30" fell, nobody would really care, much, whereas if 24-36" is predicted and 16" falls, it'll look like a major bust.  I'd use the same logic for the rest of the swaths of snowfall, i.e., I'd reduce the 18-24" swath through much of NJ to 12-18" and then reduce the 14-18" band for SE PA, including Philly, and most of South Jersey, to 8-12” and forecast a bit less for points west and SW of there, like the Poconos, Lehigh Valley and Delaware. 

[killabud]

Hope you guys and gals don't mind a bit of input from out here in fly over land.  Regarding what Mount Holly will do.  To me it's a no brainier, go with the model that has shown the best consistency.

an unbiased opinion is always good!

[CNY-LES FREAK]

I expect them to shift west and the Euro to tick east again at 12z. Predicting models is stupid but they do need to come to a concensus.

No they don't!!

[CooL]

incredible.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Can anyone confirm what i see, although the precip shield shifted NOT the low.. It happens to be stronger? His thing goes negative at just the right time. And it's lining up perfect with current low placement of the clipper

[negative-nao]

from DT

 

*** ALERT *** 0Z TUESDAY EUROPEAN MODEL DOES NOT SIGNIFICANT SHIFT EAST... very minor one...

This is really interesting. I mean on intellectual sense it so fascinating that I am very happy that all the data is being saved. The European model has shifted slightly to the east but not in any substantial way and certainly not as far to the east as what the other models have gone.

But more importantly than the issue of an East shift is the key feature that the European model continues to STALL the Low off the NJ coast ...or due south of eastern Long Island. It is this stalled Low that produces the heavy snow . The uncertainty of the eastward shift of the Low track plays a part. But the different between the GFS/ Canadian NAM / RGEM solutions.... all of which have much less snow over NJ and NYC ... Vs. the European model is that the European model has this stalled deep Low pressure area which wraps the heavy snow into NYC and brings it down into NJ for 12 to 18 hours.

Now it's quite possible the Europeans completely wrong here and the other models are correct. But the STALL is the key difference. If there is no stall then these other solutions are correct and NYC ends up with a 12 to 16" snowstorm and NJ anywhere from 8 to 14 inches of snow. A major snowstorm to ne sure but not a historic.

Fascinating the weather situation.

 

[Superstorm93]

Can anyone confirm what i see, although the precip shield shifted NOT the low.. It happens to be stronger? His thing goes negative at just the right time. And it's lining up perfect with current low placement of the clipper

 

Yes, the precip shield contracted a bit. There are signs of a more focused band over CT/LI after 40 hours. 

 

Very Nemo 2013 

[phil882]

I'm not trying to be a jerk here...but over interior SE NY and parts of NJ...that is a noticeable cutback from the 12z run.

 

That's because the ECMWF did shift east... not enough to keep NYC out of the huge accumulations, but the edge that was back in CPA and CNY has shifted a good 50 miles east.

[MJO812]

Total snowfall on the Euro. 30 + inches for NYC.

[JBG]

It went a bit east with the low placement and the 2"+ precip is now just barely west of NYC instead of extending west through much of NJ and up into the Lower HV. Definitely a shift east, but still hammers NYC on East.

Wunderground has cut the overnight tomorrow night from 8-12 to 5-8.

[Rjay]

That's because the ECMWF did shift east... not enough to keep NYC out of the huge accumulations, but the edge that was back in CPA and CNY has shifted a good 50 miles east.

The Euro ticked east in my opinion but the western cutoff just really tightened up.

Btw thanks for all you do. I think you're one of the best mets on this site.

[NEXtreme]

Wunderground has cut the overnight tomorrow night from 8-12 to 5-8.

GFS?

[Guest Pamela]

I'm still at over 20+ inches with a 1.7"qpf

 

I think its a tremendous looking snowstorm for the area...the point is, at this stage of the game, it barely matters where precisely the actual lowest level of barometric pressure traverses out there in the Atlantic Shipping Lanes & George's Bank...since it is unlikely to be subject to much variance anyway...it matters how explosive that precipitation shield is, how quickly it develops, and how far back it gets thrown....and how long it lingers. 

[ag3]

The euro did not do that big jump towards convection at hour 21, that the rest of the suite did.