Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[jm1220]

Actually...I remember the NAM with the heaviest snow over NE NJ & NYC a couple runs before 2/8/13. 

The NAM was much more amped than other models and we mostly knew it was bogus. 

[Guest Pamela]

The NAM was much more amped than other models and we mostly knew it was bogus. 

 

Its been a couple  years so it is not fresh in my mind...but these sharp gradients to the east are far from uncommon...think of that 12/19/09 event for example. 

[pazzo83]

LC chiming in

[CNY-LES FREAK]

out to 12 with no sig changes Yet

[Morch Madness]

It is a tick east but not much through 24 hrs. Could still be pretty good.

[HailMan06]

East tick is real...thru 30h now.

[NEXtreme]

LC chiming in

Interesting post.

[PB GFI]

I THINK WE ARE GOOD .

 

EURO SAY WE ARE ON .

[NYI91Tavares]

Well now the interpretations are as varied as the models.

[MJO812]

Euro is still a major hit

[Rjay]

Euro vs the world. Huge hit.

[Superstorm93]

This is not the thermnuclear meltdown that I expected. 

 

This has to be the most reasonable run of the EURO yet. Its still way above the consensus though. 

[PB GFI]

HOUR 36 CRUSHED FROM THE NJ SHORE UP THRU NYC WCT ONTO LONG ISLAND

 

AND HOUR 39 OOOF  CCB  LONG ISLAND CRUSHED

[IsentropicLift]

The Euro is still great. Intense banding still makes it to NE NJ. Moderate back to E PA

[Thundersnow12]

Actually stronger this run at 36hr by 3mb compared to the 12z run.

 

977mb vs. 980mb and a tick east. 

[jm1220]

The "it's east, game over" and "huge hit" comments are really annoying. Let one person do the PBP and everyone else just hold on and watch.

[chietanen]

I wish some of you would buy the model so you can see what's going on, and if not, stop getting analysis from other regions and spreading it here. It's not in the least bit helpful.

 

In any event, I'm only through hour 42, but WxBell snow maps show 12-20" across entire region.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Like we said earlier... The euro would have had to come 50-100 miles east.. Not gonna happen... Glad to see it's still a monster

[MJO812]

Major hit on the Euro. 20+ for the NYC area.

[pazzo83]

Mercy, that is pretty solid.

[phil882]

The 00z ECMWF is definately east of 12z, but not nearly as far east as the rest of the guidance. It makes up for it by making the deformation band on the northwest side of the cyclone stronger (surface cyclone is stronger so more deformation along the frontogenetical band as a result). This is still a huge hit for NYC, but folks north and west of NYC will see their amounts cut.

[SnowDemon]

And the Euro holds serve.

[Superstorm93]

Precip amounts are infinitely more realistic this run, and the intense banding stops once you get to NE NJ. 

 

I'll take this in a damned heartbeat over the consensus. 

[pazzo83]

Ha, so now what.

[IsentropicLift]

1" plus runs from TTN to SWF. And the city is very close to 2" liquid. It's a little drier over NJ but there will be deform bands that you won't see this far out.

[Thundersnow12]

Holy cow at the CCB signature at 42hrs.

[Rjay]

Stronger..a tick east...nj may see slightly less but not by a ton. Nyc and east destroyed.

[superjames1992]

Like we said earlier... The euro would have had to come 50-100 miles east.. Not gonna happen... Glad to see it's still a monster

 

It actually did come significantly east from the 12z run, FWIW (50ish miles).  It's still easily a massive, historic storm for the NYC metro, though.  It does make a difference in NW NJ, though, where totals were significantly slashed.  Totals are also cut down a lot for Albany.  It makes little difference for NYC, though; both runs were clobberings.

[Mophstymeo]

Major hit on the Euro. 20+ for the NYC area.

So what does the Euro see that the others don't? Or what is it missing?

Edit: One thing is for sure, the NWS is going to scale back their forecast for at least part of the area.

[jm1220]

Kind of what I thought would happen-a nudge east but not a full cave. We're too close in for the Euro to do that now. I think the other models may have overcorrected east and should come back stronger tomorrow.