Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[MJO812]

JMA is only about .75 for the NYC area

[jm1220]

The point is that we'll have to hope what we have now still holds. What if the models keep ticking east then what?

There isn't much room for further adjustments at this point. We're 24 hours out at most. I'd say NYC should at least get a very nice snow event, if not history-making. 

[RUMG11]

The point is that we'll have to hope what we have now still holds. What if the models keep ticking east then what?

What if they don't and trend back west tomorrow morning? Point is none of us know. You choose to be pessimistic which is fine, but don't condemn others for holding onto a little hope.  

[MJO812]

The point is that we'll have to hope what we have now still holds. What if the models keep ticking east then what?

Then they lower the totals. This will still be a big snowstorm.

[MJO812]

Hmm, don't use the most extreme solution.

 Euro has shown several runs of 20+ for the area. The most superior model.

[SnoSki14]

There isn't much room for further adjustments at this point. We're 24 hours out at most. I'd say NYC should at least get a very nice snow event, if not history-making. 

We essentially slashed our totals in half or more in two sets of model data. I'm sure we can make another adjustment. 

[phil882]

Before the Euro gets going... just want to let everyone know I've shifted my HRRR grids to KJFK for those that might want to take a peek over the next couple of days. Any feedback and suggestions (e.g. other model fields ect.) are welcome

 

Grids update every hour (around 00:20 after the hour) as a new model cycle comes in...

 

Url: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#flt

 

[sferic]

15 more minutes to the EURO. The suspense builds.

 

At least this won't be a 3.05.01 repeat for NYC if it doesn't yield 20-30 inch amounts.

[ScottB]

If the Euro stays west I think this will be more hysteria than if it trends east. Such a difficult forecast.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Before the Euro gets going... just want to let everyone know I've shifted my HRRR grids to KJFK for those that might want to take a peek over the next couple of days. Any feedback and suggestions (e.g. other model fields ect.) are welcome

 

Url: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#flt

 

 

Thanks very much for sharing...new go to link for that data.

[USCG RS]

If the Euro stays west I think this will be more hysteria than if it trends east. Such a difficult forecast.

If it stays west, imho, we have our answer.

[jm1220]

If it stays west, imho, we have our answer.

I'm starting to think it at least nudges east. I doubt it's a complete cave to the GFS, but the Euro's really on its own now. 

[UnionWeatherWx]

If it stays west, I honestly wouldn't know what NWS would do.

[Guest Pamela]

If it stays west, imho, we have our answer.

 

In all fairness...I think that unlikely.  All the models ingest the same data.  But time will tell.   

[MJO812]

I'm starting to think it at least nudges east. I doubt it's a complete cave to the GFS, but the Euro's really on its own now. 

The Euro has been on its own for a while now

[MJO812]

Looks like DT has tossed in the towel

No he didn't. He thinks that the biggest snowfall totals will be east.

[USCG RS]

I'm starting to think it at least nudges east. I doubt it's a complete cave to the GFS, but the Euro's really on its own now.

I can't speculate here. I just don't know. We'll know very soon brother.

[yhbrooklyn]

If one thinks 15 inches of snow living in Brooklyn NY is a crap forecast then you don`t understand your climo

When did I say that 15" was a crap forecast? Don't put words in my mouth.

Conservative almost always works best in the city. 

I just disagreed with your coastal plain argument for this storm because being north and west doesn't help here.

[WaPo]

In all fairness...I think that unlikely.  All the models ingest the same data.  But time will tell.   

 

The NAM and GFS both indicated a system closer in line with the Euro @ 500MB. It was the surface resolution which was further east. 

[IsentropicLift]

I'll be shocked if the Euro makes a major shift in any direction. Its shown good run to run continuity, has ensemble support and fits well with the thoughts of most of the degreed mets.

[Guest Pamela]

Thing that puzzles me is that the cyclone is an absolutely ideal position...with good upper level support... and is of sufficient barometric depth to manifest a more impressive precipitation shield than some of these models are showing...

[USCG RS]

Thing that puzzles me is that the cyclone is an absolutely ideal position...with good upper level support... and is of sufficient barometric depth to manifest a more impressive precipitation shield than some of these models are showing...

Exactly why I am scratching my head

[USCG RS]

Exactly why I am scratching my head

I mean heck, h3 is even gorgeous on most of the models.

[SnowGoose69]

I'll be shocked if the Euro makes a major shift in any direction. Its shown good run to run continuity, has ensemble support and fits well with the thoughts of most of the degreed mets.

The euro may not budge track but significantly slice the QPF, that's my best guess to what it will do. I think it was Windcredible over in the SNE forum who said he didn't buy that with SNE seeing the insane amounts they'd get that it could stretch back to NYC and it was probably overdone. It's rare to see that big an area of 2 feet or more in any storm

[MJO812]

We have seen the models cut back right before a big storm many times in the past. This isn't the 1st time.

[stockmanjr]

The euro may not budge track but significantly slice the QPF, that's my best guess to what it will do. I think it was Windcredible over in the SNE forum who said he didn't buy that with SNE seeing the insane amounts they'd get that it could stretch back to NYC and it was probably overdone. It's rare to see that big an area of 2 feet or more in any storm

I've been trying to explain that to some of my friends tonight. I'm still going with 18-24'' but obviously I'm just an amateur at this game.

Cheers

Howie

[yhbrooklyn]

The Euro has been on its own for a while now

Not really. It was the highest for QPF, but several other models were over 2".

NOW it's on its own. Let's see how it plays out.

[jm1220]

Thing that puzzles me is that the cyclone is an absolutely ideal position...with good upper level support... and is of sufficient barometric depth to manifest a more impressive precipitation shield than some of these models are showing...

Banding usually gets further NW than models show. I remember we were mostly supposed to be fringed on 2/8/13 but there was plenty of precip all the way back to NYC. Rain and sleet ruined much of it though west of Suffolk.

[chietanen]

Water vapor loop - storm taking shape. 

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/east/nhem/eaus/wv.html

[Guest Pamela]

Banding usually gets further NW than models show. I remember we were mostly supposed to be fringed on 2/8/13 but there was plenty of precip all the way back to NYC. Rain and sleet ruined much of it though west of Suffolk.

 

Actually...I remember the NAM with the heaviest snow over NE NJ & NYC a couple runs before 2/8/13.