Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[RU848789]

A double barrel low is certainly possible... keep in mind the solutions both the NAM and RGEM are projecting were within the realm of possibilities provided by the ECMWF EPS.

This is more than just convective feedback... I've been looking at the initial conditions of the current clipper and it looks like its been moving a little faster than expected. For the best possible phase, we don't want this feature to be moving as quickly so the next shortwave can capture it further west and hence allow for surface cyclogenesis to occur further west. The trends aren't good because it looks like the last 12-18 hour forecasts were a bit too slow with the primary shortwave.

 

 

Wish some of the better METS would chime in. So many are saying clipper moving too fast. Doesn't appear it really is.

One has - see above.  People can't wish these reduced snowfalls and different storm evolutions (without the retrograde) away.  It's possible the NAM/GFS/RGEM are wrong, but we have to consider that it's possible they're on to something and the Euro will catch on.  What will be really interesting is if the Euro holds serve - will any of the mets lower forecast amounts?  I would think they would taking at least some pause that several of the other models are pretty far from the Euro solutio - at least dropping the 24-36" amounts to 18-30" amounts and maybe drop the 18-24" swath to 12-18" and the 14-18" band to 8-12" or something like that.  

[Juliancolton]

I'll defer to the experts on the speed of the clipper system. Any deviation from earlier progs looks negligible to my untrained eye, but there's quite clearly something having an "adverse" effect on model output tonight. Either it's a real phenomena—in which case the Euro should correct eastward—or we've managed to feel out the one synoptic pattern that is incompatible with the physics packages of every major agency's NWP models except the ECWMF. I think I know which one is more likely, but I remain hopeful.

[SnoSki14]

Are you really giving up on a big snowfall?

Yes I'll spare myself the upcoming suicide warnings that'll be on here but that's okay. I was just happy tracking this thing that's my favorite part about winter storms.

[MJO812]

dude ok and now its even further east...theres just no sugarcoating

Gives the area 10+ which is fine

[nycsnow]

GGEM might still be 12+ actually

[Guest Pamela]

I'm guessing that NWS was tired of criticism that they are always playing catch up on big ticket events. You will always see the maps ramp up from 6-10 to 10-14 and then while the event is underway, jump to 12-24, etc. They saw the Euro and the tons of support it had and decided to warn the public and jump at the high totals from the get go.

It's not a terrible strategy because even if you bust "low" at 20", no one would really criticize it.

But now the Euro's support has been creeping downwards...

 

Only an hour left of agony, but even if he Euro holds serve, I don't know what it means at this point.

 

In all candor...I will be very surprised if parts of Long Island don't receive at least 18 inches out of this thing..it has the elements. 

[ag3]

Ukmet is about .75" for NYC.

8"-11" snowfall.

[yhbrooklyn]

In all candor...I will be very surprised if parts of Long Island don't receive at least 18 inches out of this thing..it has the elements. 

No doubt, but all anyone would remember is what NYC got.

[FreeRain]

...but not always the best thing to throw out 24 - 36 inch widespread amounts before the onset of one of these events...simply because it is extremely rare.  

I agree. Wide spread 30" snows are very rare.

 

But how rare is it that the Euro calls for widespread 30" of snow, 24 hours before an event and we wind up getting one third of that.

[MJO812]

Ukie is further east. Late capture which reduces our snowfall. Not good trends tonight.

[jm1220]

I'll defer to the experts on the speed of the clipper system. Any deviation from earlier progs looks negligible to my untrained eye, but there's quite clearly something having an "adverse" effect on model output tonight. Either it's a real phenomena—in which case the Euro should correct eastward—or we've managed to feel out the one synoptic pattern that is incompatible with the physics packages of every major agency's NWP models except the ECWMF. I think I know which one is more likely, but I remain hopeful.

We're still in an overall progressive pattern and the AO/NAO aren't optimal for a strong storm near the NJ coast. The ridge out west is quite steep and yesterday's storm set up a temporary 50-50 feature, but patterns like these generally favor SNE because of their longitude. Uncle W mentioned a couple of times that anything above 10-12" in NYC would be unprecedented for the AO/NAO being where they are. The models may be reverting to that reality. We'll know soon enough. 

[SnoSki14]

Why is 10 to 15 bad?

Come on people !!

People forget about subsidence and when there's a large CCB with banding to the east you'll have a lot of it. The only chance is that models are over doing the east shift with this CCB and come back west tomorrow but I doubt it.

[NYCSNOWMAN2020]

Ukmet is about .75" for NYC.

8"-11" snowfall.

let's see what euro says ..

[superjames1992]

Any word on the UKIE? It was kind of in the Euro's camp earlier today, would be interesting to see if it still is.

 

East of the 12z run.  Tight cutoff right over the NYC metro.  Could be major differences between Newark and Queens.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNM&hh2=9999&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=036

[jm1220]

Ukie is further east. Late capture which reduces our snowfall. Not good trends tonight.

I'm starting to think the Euro caves somewhat tonight and reserves the massive snow amounts for SNE and Suffolk County. Usually when the UKMET caves the Euro goes along to a degree. 

[Guest Pamela]

let's see what euro says ..

 

They essentially mirror one another...they were both formulated in the Old World.

[PB GFI]

KNYC

 

SREFS  1.25 - 1.50      14- 18

 

High RES NAM is 1.2      14

RGEM is 30mm or 1.2      14

GGEM is 1.25     15

 

GFS .8      10

UKIE  20 MM   .8  10

 

Using 12 to 1

 

 

Some of you better get a grip and realize you live at 40 N on the coastal plain and regardless of what some algo spit out, get over it , these numbers are fine if this happens .

[UnionWeatherWx]

I still believe Euro does not cave.

[MJO812]

I'm starting to think the Euro caves somewhat tonight and reserves the massive snow amounts for SNE and Suffolk County. Usually when the UKMET caves the Euro goes along to a degree. 

usually but not all the time

[yhbrooklyn]

Some of you better get a grip and realize you live at 40 N on the coastal plain and regardless of what some algo spit out, get over it , these numbers are fine if this happens .

That's a little ridiculous to say. The coastal plain argument is in rain/snow line issues. That isn't the case here.

[Guest Pamela]

 

 

But how rare is it that the Euro calls for widespread 30" of snow, 24 hours before an event and we wind up getting one third of that.

 

I don't know enough about these models internal algorithms to give you a good answer...

[PB GFI]

That's a little ridiculous to say. The coastal plain argument is in rain/snow line issues. That isn't the case here.

If one thinks 15 inches of snow living in Brooklyn NY is a crap forecast then you don`t understand your climo

[Guest Pamela]

That's a little ridiculous to say. The coastal plain argument is in rain/snow line issues. That isn't the case here.

 

Not entirely the case...there is the question of the general winter storm track...and historical climatology...places like interior SNE do not average more snow than Atlantic City just because ACY is on the coast...Philly & BWI are pretty well inland...and yet their annual averages are paltry...being north / latitude is essential not just for cold...but also for being to the north of the main storm track. 

[USCG RS]

dude we were on the verge of a historical snowfall...to act like people arent gunna be dissappointed in what would be one of the biggest bust ever is pathetic

The real issue here is IF, and yes it is still if at this point, if this turns out to be a bust, the OEM for nyc, Suffolk and Nassau have pulled out all the stops as has the NWS.

[swamplover56]

Pb u can obv see why everyone is down with what nws put out earlier. A historical storm got everyone in a frenzy. Now that that appears off the table u have to understand the disappointment

[pazzo83]

Get over it , Go cry to mommy . If you get 15 inches you should do a jig. You live on Long Island . You spend every storm on pins and needles waiting for a S wind to flip you to rain .

Now you have a chance at 14 or 15 - Lov it

Yea, but the forecast is/was for 2 to 3ft.

[WintersGrasp]

East of the 12z run. Tight cutoff right over the NYC metro. Could be major differences between Newark and Queens.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNM&hh2=9999&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=036

That image couldn't make it any clearer how we are and were truly on the edge with this. It just looks like the image of a SNE snowstorm

[MJO812]

Get over it , Go cry to mommy . If you get 15 inches you should do a jig. You live on Long Island . You spend every storm on pins and needles waiting for a S wind to flip you to rain .

Now you have a chance at 14 or 15 - Lov it

Agree PB. I'm a huge weenie and I will not be mad if I even only get a foot.

[PB GFI]

GEFS are 1 at KNYC

[MJO812]

Yea, but the forecast is/was for 2 to 3ft.

A lot of people might have jumped the gun too soon. It wasn't only Upton forecasting this.