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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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+SNfreak21

+SNfreak21

Posted
Posted

Much more optimistic for your chances -- clipper not ahead of schedule, feature is developing in advance as leading wave, probably a sign that explosive cyclogenesis will occur as soon as upper level low reaches coast Monday afternoon. Would toss NAM and accept GFS may be just slightly off in timing and phase. RGEM is consistent with 18" and expect a really strong Euro.

You really healed those mental blows from the NAM/GFS, lol, weenie suicide watch

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

The Euro just closes off about 6 hours sooner and that makes all the difference. I would be shocked if the Euro made a major shift.

Other than that, the rest is model noise that we always get. It's a very complex setup. The 12z EPS members for the most part supported the OP well. Very few looked like the NAM or GFS. Most looked like the op. I'll take consistency and run with it.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

If the Euro holds and turns out correct it'll live in infamy as untouchable but it makes a huge shift then that's a epic fail. Given subsidence usually present to the west of strong bands if the gfs is right we might end up with very little making this storm a contender for biggest bust in our history.

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Dsnowx53

Dsnowx53

Posted
Posted

The GFS heads almost due east from hours 18-24 despite the trough negatively tilting. I find that hard to believe. I'm not denying that the trends so far haven't been disheartening, but these models sometimes go too far in dragging the storm east in response to fast development over the Gulf Stream. I also just don't see the Euro being so wrong and so close in when it's been very steady the last 3 runs.

It jumps the surface low towards the strongest convection. I'm not sure that's right, but I can't say for certain that's wrong, either. Regardless, 700mb low track and omega still looked good for a nice snowfall.

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WaPo

WaPo

Posted
Posted

I'm rocking in my corner, mumbling 3/5/01.

 

If it does I don't think I'll ever be able to trust Monday afternoon storms again. That said, if Upton is holding strong and the setup is there, I'm slightly confident that this will all work out.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

This is not about east tonite . There are 2 different evolutions of this system ,  the European captures this at our latitude and retrogrades it shoving the best vertical motion right through the forecast area the GFS just heads N .

 

The RGEM attempts to retrograde but its 2 slp weaken the qpf field ( KNYC 1.2 FALLS )

The SREFs tonite are still 1.5 at KNYC 

High res NAM is 1.2 at KNYC

 

One of the 2 Globals are underestimating the strength of the N Atlantic . If the Europeans physics are what some seem to think they are then it will not change it`s depiction and  it will capture this at our latitude  ( as it has not budged in 36 hours )  .

 

 

But this NOT ABOUT EAST . THE EURO RETROGRADES THE SYSTEM ( produces a 12 hour deformation band ) THE GFS DOES NOT .

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

TV Mets coming on for the 11:00 news have a big decision to make.

Without the benefit of the 00Z Euro do they continue to go full bore or

start to hedge and pull back, at least slightly?

 

I think they should at least inject some uncertainty into the forecast for the 18"+ 

amounts from the city west.

 Lee Goldberg on Channel 7 did a good job of letting people know the big snows were looking to be more likely east of NYC and that amounts west of NYC would be reduced somewhat - details at 11:17 pm, lol...

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rogue

rogue

Posted
Posted

The Euro just closes off about 6 hours sooner and that makes all the difference. I would be shocked if the Euro made a major shift.

Other than that, the rest is model noise that we always get. It's a very complex setup. The 12z EPS members for the most part supported the OP well. Very few looked like the NAM or GFS. Most looked like the op. I'll take consistency and run with it.

 

Things are consistent, until they're not. Lol. But I hear you and hope you're right about the Euro.

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Blizzard-on-GFS

Blizzard-on-GFS

Posted
Posted

I'm rocking in my corner, mumbling 3/5/01.

Yeah I'm getting that sickness feeling. I'm afraid that we are having the rug swept up from underneath us. The good news is the EURO is the first model to show this storm blowing up, and it has been very consistent. Also, a complex and deep system like this should be modeled better by the higher res EURO, and I think that is why the NWS has been so confident throwing up these very high snowfall totals. This 0z EURO run is going to be absolutely huge and I'm definitely a bit nervous, but overall I'm only expecting a minor shift east and not something as far east as the GFS and NAM.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

It jumps the surface low towards the strongest convection. I'm not sure that's right, but I can't say for certain that's wrong, either. Regardless, 700mb low track and omega still looked good for a nice snowfall.

You can have great omega bursts but the heavy snow will be short lived if the SLP continues N .

The Euro`s capture produces a 12 hour deformation band and that`s where you get 2.5 inches of liquid .

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

It would be one of the worst forecasting fails of all time if it disintegrates now. Most forecasters, especially the NWS really put the high totals out there, and we're 24 hours away from bad impacts. 

They bought the Euro , if the Euro is wrong a lot of people are wrong not just the NWS

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tmagan

tmagan

Posted
Posted

I have no dog in this anymore, but even I'd scream if this has an outcome like that again. 

 

There has been a bit of revisionist history regarding March '01. There were signs a couple of days in advance that it wasn't going to pan out as everyone thought. I remember the old GFS MOS message the Saturday night before the storm raising those red flags.

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tmagan

tmagan

Posted
Posted

It would be one of the worst forecasting fails of all time if it disintegrates now. Most forecasters, especially the NWS really put the high totals out there, and we're 24 hours away from bad impacts. 

 

The worst forecasting fail was February 1989 (President's week). Nothing, I mean nothing will ever match that again.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

There has been a bit of revisionist history regarding March '01. There were signs a couple of days in advance that it wasn't going to pan out as everyone thought. I remember the old GFS MOS message the Saturday night before the storm raising those red flags.

Models and computing power today are far more advanced than what we had in 2001, so we shouldn't have issues like these now. 

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MikeS

MikeS

Posted
Posted

Unbelievable. It all comes down to the Euro. Either the EURO is going to hold its course or our models are going to look worse than they ever have.

Yup.

Regardless of what it shows in 1.5 hours, someone is going to look absolutely awful.

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

It would be one of the worst forecasting fails of all time if it disintegrates now. Most forecasters, especially the NWS really put the high totals out there, and we're 24 hours away from bad impacts. 

How about in regards to Euro and other computer modeling....If this really does happen (in other words, DOESN'T give us a huge snowstorm), wouldn't it really give a second thought to them in general.....Such as why the Euro took so long to catch on to what the other models showed ? Quite honestly, the euro was the only one showing a HUGE insane snowstorm. Other models went that path only to come back to a more legit (though still major solution of 12-18" on some runs), while others really just stayed away from anything more than a significant snowstorm. A lot to think about.....And it really would be absolutely incredible if the Euro still shows 20-30" for us and not 8-14 or so like i'm thinking it will

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