Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[Zelocita Weather]

N/c nj is the the mid 30s with around 10 dew points, temps won't be a problem here, although overall in the mid atlantic looks warmer then thought, rain further north than thought..

[wthrmn654]

Temperatures are dropping long island down to 30 clear skies

[NEXtreme]

Anyone concerned about temperatures. We are at 36 right now and suppose to go down to 24, with cloud cover not sure how cold it will get my morning when the snow starts.

Nope...Cold front moving through ... Temps dropping.

[nyblizz44]

Good evening everyone...yes today's NWS forecasts were heavily weighted toward the 12Z NAM/ECMWF...no secret there if you read the WPC QPF discussion. Seeing 850 winds whose u-component was I think +6 SD's beyond the mean (to say nothing of a fetch from almost beyond Nova Scotia, something I have not seen since Sandy) tends to make one think big on snowfall. My forecast of 24-30" (the graphics showing 24-36" are a little misleading) may be a little broad-brushed, and depends on where the most intense banding sets up. As usual I think it'll be west/north of model forecast and more along a line from Danbury to NYC than from Hartford to Huntington. Will probably be widespread 18-24" with a band of at least 24-30". GFS was totally discounted due to its more progressive solution...no loop-de-loop near or inside the benchmark late Mon night-Tue from a Miller B storm of this magnitude? C'mon now.

the knowledge combined with the modesty and the down to earth nature of the explanation of the decision making. Hats off sir. And here's hoping we break 30 in Central Park. Wonderful job by Upton on this and I can see why now

[David-LI]

Anyone concerned about temperatures. We are at 36 right now and suppose to go down to 24, with cloud cover not sure how cold it will get my morning when the snow starts.

 

The cold front is approaching the area now. It will get to mid 20's by midnight.

[SnoSki14]

It looks like the Srefs shifted east a bit but still good for the NYC metro.

[Animal]

It looks like the Srefs shifted east a bit but still good for the NYC metro.

 

Not what I wanted to hear for my location.

Don't they run of the nam or something,

[jdt]

Anyone concerned about temperatures. We are at 36 right now and suppose to go down to 24, with cloud cover not sure how cold it will get my morning when the snow starts.

26 / 12 with north wind in NW NJ. Patience the cold is filtering south.

[mob1]

It looks like the Srefs shifted east a bit but still good for the NYC metro.

It may have compacted the precipitation field a little but looks like NYC and most of NJ are the same (or even better) waiting for plumes.

[Allsnow]

Not what I wanted to hear for my location.

Don't they run of the nam or something,

They are great. 1.00 back to Phl

1.25 back to u

[IsentropicLift]

Were they more aligned with the Euro?

Drier by 0.50"-1.00"

[Zelocita Weather]

Not what I wanted to hear for my location.

Don't they run of the nam or something,

If 1" is back to PHL ur ok...map anyone?

[KamuSnow]

Anyone concerned about temperatures. We are at 36 right now and suppose to go down to 24, with cloud cover not sure how cold it will get my morning when the snow starts.

 

Your dewpoints are low, even if you were to get some rain at the start it would change to snow quickly. 

Good luck to all of you!!!

[dmillz25]

This storm could have up to 5 inch per hour rates and a good amount of thundersnow the way its looking.

[Allsnow]

Using a standard 10-1 ration the srefs are close to 2 feet for nyc

[BoulderWX]

based on analysis in here - best to wait on plumes before taking any interpretation 

[IsentropicLift]

They are great. 1.00 back to Phl

1.25 back to u

Actually he's in the 0.75" plus area.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Using a standard 10-1 ration the srefs are close to 2 feet for nyc

And we all know u gotta add 50% for a 15:1

[wkd]

Six standard deviations. That's just insane. 

 

 

Top image looks a lot like the 12Z eur snow map.

[WintersGrasp]

They are great...I mean what do people expect? 1.75 for nyc

Not sure what the plumes will show (they've been around 23" for NENJ/NYC), but I assume they will be close to those same numbers for this run, give or take a few inches

[forkyfork]

They are great...I mean what do people expect? 1.75 for nyc

the 24 hour 1" line looks slightly east of 15z. is the gradient tighter?

[David-LI]

How are the short range models looking? Like the HRRR etc?

[chietanen]

based on analysis in here - best to wait on plumes before taking any interpretation 

 

Define "analysis" 

 

Btw, if one wants to see for their own eyes, the SREF's are available here: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER&ps=area

 

And the plumes here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150125&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=9&mLAT=40.567809858963095&mLON=-73.70683348999023&mTYP=roadmap

 

You can change the plume to your location by clicking on the map. You also have to change to the most recent run at the top of the screen. 21z is just coming out.

[SACRUS]

21z SREF leaning left

 

 

[BoulderWX]

Define "analysis" 

 

Btw, if one wants to see for their own eyes, the SREF's are available here: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER&ps=area

 

And the plumes here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150125&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=9&mLAT=40.567809858963095&mLON=-73.70683348999023&mTYP=roadmap

 

You can change the plume to your location by clicking on the map. You also have to change to the most recent run at the top of the screen. 21z is just coming out.

ha that was my point - and yup, just waiting for them to load... went from 21 to 22 in LGA, if we can remain above 18 this run ill be pleased..

[WintersGrasp]

the 24 hour 1" line looks slightly east of 15z. is the gradient tighter?

It looks like it might have moved about 25 miles east with the cutoff in NJ

[jm1220]

That easterly jet is why I'm convinced a number of people will see more than 30". That's going to set up some incredible snow banding where it'll snow 4"+ per hour easy. That's a direct fetch from the Atlantic being lifted by the explosive cyclogenesis. 

[jm1220]

21z SREF leaning left

 

 

There have been some outliers for a while now that shifted the mean east-outliers that barely brushed the area and are obviously spurious. 

[Allsnow]

the 24 hour 1" line looks slightly east of 15z. is the gradient tighter?

Yes. The one inch line is just east of Phl this run..it tighten up a bit

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

That easterly jet is why I'm convinced a number of people will see more than 30". That's going to set up some incredible snow banding where it'll snow 4"+ per hour easy. That's a direct fetch from the Atlantic being lifted by the explosive cyclogenesis.

I've been talking about it all day, and JB as well as JC and a few others believe many will see 20:1/30:1 ratios overnight Monday into Tuesday.. Even someone at 1.0qpf could end up at 18-20"