Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[IsentropicLift]

Really sharp cut off over NNJ. MMU is barely to 0.75"+ while the city is already approaching 2"

[SnoSki14]

It's really nice to have all models on board. Given the big changes with the srefs and Nam I wouldn't be surprised if models trended slightly better today except maybe the Euro which is already as good as can be.

[MJO812]

12z Nam has epic banding over NYC. 20+ on this run. Insane.

[IsentropicLift]

NAM is already a foot plus through hr 48 except for the Western 1/5 of the region.

[IsentropicLift]

From the city East is the sweet spot. Need this to come 50 miles West so that we all cash in equally. Temperatures are plenty cold all the way offshore so you wouldn't be risking mixing at the coast.

[packfan98]

2ft+ totals by hour 51! It will be interesting to look at the hi-res nam and RGEM for better mesoscale details.

[jdt]

Really sharp cut off over NNJ. MMU is barely to 0.75"+ while the city is already approaching 2"

That sharp cutoff is my biggest concern for western NJ. Suspect it becomes more pronounced on other data today. That with any slight variations in slp placement could have huge ramifications for some.

[IsentropicLift]

The conservative SV maps have 30"+ from Hartford to Boston.

[mikeysed]

Nam is still coming. I anticipate it will still move west another 20-30 miles by next model suite

[Animal]

That sharp cutoff is my biggest concern for western NJ. Suspect it becomes more pronounced on other data today. That with any slight variations in slp placement could have huge ramifications for some.

 

This is coming from a model that had nothing 6 hours ago. just sayin

[MJO812]

12z nam snowmap. WOW. 20+ for NYC.

[nyblizz44]

From the city East is the sweet spot. Need this to come 50 miles West so that we all cash in equally. Temperatures are plenty cold all the way offshore so you wouldn't be risking mixing at the coast.

am i understanding you correctly QPF is over 2 inches from the city on East?

[SnoSki14]

I think the mother of god Nam run is yet to come. The 18z or 0z run could be epic.

[Morris]

12z nam snowmap. WOW. 20+ for NYC.

Stopping at 48?

[White Gorilla]

NAM for HV?

[rossi]

am i understanding you correctly QPF is over 2 inches from the city on East?

Same for Monmouth!!!

 

Rossi

[Nygmen]

the nam looks like its 30+ for long island...can anyone verify?

[UnionWeatherWx]

18 '' + NENJ, NYC gets under a incredible banding 20 " + there.

[packfan98]

Stopping at 48?

Oh no.  Hours 51 and 54 are epic!

[ineedsnow]

wait until you see 57 lol

Stopping at 48?

 

[UnionWeatherWx]

Someone on Jersey Shore gets hammered as well.

[mikeysed]

NAM is showing 30-36 inches in and around a 15 mile radius of dead center time square

[Zelocita Weather]

The furthest east model just came west in a huge way....and gives NYC metro 1' -2'....I think we're golden

[brooklynwx99]

With a 10:1 ratio (will probably be closer to 15:1) and STILL GOING     

[WintersGrasp]

Between 51 and 54 hours it's still actually throwing more snow back west and not just pulling it out. What an incredible run for NYC-east. I'm at about the 15-20" area in NENJ....I'd like to see it movie 50 miles west as Isentropic said....get everyone in the "big game"

[IsentropicLift]

Wraps up around dinner time Tuesday night. About a 36 hour event.

[Mikehobbyst]

Enjoy today, I mean while we can still get around. Stay safe everyone. I mean that with all sincerity. Still can not wrap my head around some of the numbers coming out of the models. This is going to be so disruptive, that the sane folks would want this out to sea. This is what 3/24-26/2014 did. You'll all wish this did the same when it is over. Think about it.

[packfan98]

The 850's really crash during the second half of the storm. They go below -10 so the powder factor will be increased. Also means that the usually inaccurate clown maps might be closer to reality????

[MJO812]

30+ for NYC east when this storm is over on the Nam.

[WintersGrasp]

Hi-res NAM's precip shield looks further east and not as expansive.....weird because it's usually further north and west