Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[SnowGoose69]

NYC got a bit lucky on 2/2013, the Euro busted on that event to an extent, the GFS busted worst, but we sort of got a late interaction from the incoming vort from the Lakes that exploded the snows behind the main low/vort, if that interaction was 3 hours later we were screwed.

[SACRUS]

A list of Newark, NJ largest storm snowfalls

1: 27.8” (1/7-8 1996)
2: 26.7” (12/26-28 1947)
3: 24.2” (12/26-27 2010)
4: 23.1” (2/16-18 2003)
5: 22.6” (2/3-4 1961)
6: 21.3” (2/11-12 2006)
7: 20.4” (12/11-12 1960)
8: 20.2” (2/9-11 1994)
9: 19.4” (1/25-27 2011)
10: 19.0”  (2/6-7 1978)
 Newark NJ

 

 

NYC top storm snowfalls

1: 26.9"  (2/11-12 2006)
2: 26.4" (12/26-28 1947)
3: 21.0" (3/12 – 3/14 1888)
4: 20.9" (2/25 – 2/26 2010)
5: 20.2" (1/7 – 1/8 1996)
6: 20.0" (12/26 – 12/27 2010)
7: 19.8" (2/16 – 2/17 2003)
8: 19.0" (1/26 – 1/27 2011)
9: 18.1" (3/7 – 3/8 1941)
10: 17.7" (2/5 – 2/7 1978)
11:  17.6" (2/11 – 2/12 1983)
12: 17.5" (1/22 – 1/24 1935)
13: 17.5" (2/4 – 2/7 1920)
12: 17.4" (2/3 – 2/4 1961)

[phil882]

The RGEM being different would worry me more than the GFS...I think its possible the RGEM is getting so overwhelmed with the dynamics to the NNE of the low over SNE its causing it to have an oversubsident area on the W side of the low by NYC.  It may be getting so WAA infatuated its overlooking frontogenetic/deformation features W or WSW of the low.

 

RGEM also shows a distinct eastward shift in the track of the primary cyclone... not sure if the lack of precip on the RGEM is completely due to over excited frontogenesis/frontolysis. 

[jm1220]

Long Beach's point and click has a total snow accum of between 24 and 37 inches.

 

That's a first and probably last. 

 

Upton is going absolutely bonkers with this-they must be really confident. This is pretty much uncharted waters for them-the most I remember them ever predicting was up to 24" when Boxing Day 2010 was raging outside. 

[tmagan]

A couple of points:

There has never been a snowstorm in the OKX CWA where 24" was a minimum total.

 

The ECMWF has tended to be too intense and too far west with some of its winter cyclones this season.

[SnoSki14]

Energy is really well organized now moving through Tennessee Valley it has that look of something historic. 

 

Really cool cyclonic spin as well. 

[Allsnow]

18z GEFS? On mobile right now

Pretty much agree with the op

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

A couple of points:

There has never been a snowstorm in the OKX CWA where 24" was a minimum total.

The ECMWF has tended to be too intense and too far west with some of its winter cyclones this season.

An example? Cause the euro nailed this seasons thanksgiving snowstorm in terms of being west from the GFS

[jm1220]

A couple of points:

There has never been a snowstorm in the OKX CWA where 24" was a minimum total.

 

The ECMWF has tended to be too intense and too far west with some of its winter cyclones this season.

The Euro has been very consistent over the last 3 runs, it's less than 48 hours out and in the Euro's wheelhouse, and other models have been flopping around. The GFS has also consistently been too far east and weak with storms for a long time.

 

Bottom line is that the Euro could be too extreme, but I'd be stunned to see it cave to where the GFS is now. I could see a compromise of some sort though. 

[allgame830]

The Euro has been very consistent over the last 3 runs, it's less than 48 hours out and in the Euro's wheelhouse, and other models have been flopping around. The GFS has also consistently been too far east and weak with storms for a long time.

 

Bottom line is that the Euro could be too extreme, but I'd be stunned to see it cave to where the GFS is now. I could see a compromise of some sort though.

Even a compromise would be 18-24 inches...

[ag3]

A couple of points:

There has never been a snowstorm in the OKX CWA where 24" was a minimum total.

The ECMWF has tended to be too intense and too far west with some of its winter cyclones this season.

Inside of 60 hours?

No.

[stlirish]

The reality is that even 1.5" of liquid would be 20" of Snow for NYC and that would be cutting the precip forecast on the Euro by about 30%...

[SleetStormNJ]

Euro kind of has some support from the NAM.  I mean even if you think Euro is too excessive in QPF, the models are all agreeing on one thing and that is really solid snow growth/ratios in some areas.

[SnoSki14]

Even if models like Rgem and Gfs are correct we still end up with about a foot of snow. How can anyone be upset with that given how this winter has gone to date. If a bust is 10-12" then I'll take that any day. 

[danstorm]

Even a compromise would be 18-24 inches...

I'd have gone with that and said up to 30" where heavier banding sets up.

[phil882]

Even if models like Rgem and Gfs are correct we still end up with about a foot of snow. How can anyone be upset with that given how this winter has gone to date. If a bust is 10-12" then I'll take that any day. 

 

Yes but that would be roughly 25-50% of what the NWS is currently forecasting for NYC. That would be a significant bust.

[allgame830]

I'd have gone with that and said up to 30" where heavier banding sets up.

Yes that would be a perfect call at this time... However NWS is not the only ones calling for such high totals.

[MJO812]

Upton shows the storm lasting from 11am tomorrow through wed 4am

[Allsnow]

My gut is with the euro but I would like to see the nam and gfs show the same solution at 00z

[xdurango]

Boston, New York and Philly all have similar maps/thoughts at the moment.

 

 

[SACRUS]

18z guidance range from lowest to highest is 14 - 25 inches for NYC.

[wthrmn654]

Question, blizzard warning 1 p.m. to midnight Tuesday... Doors that technically mean Wednesday?

[stlirish]

Boston, New York and Philly all have similar maps/thoughts at the moment.

They all called each other and collaborated. Mt Holly also.

[Allsnow]

A question that hasn't been asked yet, and maybe a met could answer, with the air mass in place, how much if any of the precip could fall as virga tomorrow afternoon, especially with light sounding

The clipper itself was never suppose to produce much. 1-3. The real deal is after the evening commute, we will loose nothing of that

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

The clipper itself was never suppose to produce much. 1-3. The real deal is after the evening commute, we will loose nothing of that

I know the clipper is what I was referring to sorry I should have been more specific, I wondering about out of the 1-3 what falls as virga

[tdp146]

Boston, New York and Philly all have similar maps/thoughts at the moment.

 

They collaborated to come up wih a unified forecast. That's a lot of meteorlogical talent making a strong statement with the public spotlight on them. Doesn't make it right, but it is a heck of a forecast.

[SnowGoose69]

There won't be a long virga period, the only notably dry layer is 925 to the surface, and its not necessarily bone dry either, I think it may reach the ground rather quickly tomorrow.

[pazzo83]

There won't be a long virga period, the only notably dry layer is 925 to the surface, and its not necessarily bone dry either, I think it may reach the ground rather quickly tomorrow.

 

Yea, and there are already returns showing up over eastern PA.  Comin' in hot.

[SnowGoose69]

There could be someone who sees 4-5 inches during the day tomorrow if the area of snow holds together or some localized heavier bands form, the ratios may be better tomorrow than during the storm due to winds being lighter.

[pazzo83]

Looks like precip is already hitting the surface pretty far east too.  York, PA reporting light rain at this hour.