Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[IsentropicLift]

  On 1/25/2015 at 6:31 PM, Joe4alb said:

Hey now euro, let's not screw the east end!

Relax, you're over 2" liquid like everyone else

[wthrmn654]

What's up with the lesser amounts over eastern long islands and up along Rhode island Connecticut border?Maybe a hiccup or something else?

[Snowlover11]

  On 1/25/2015 at 6:31 PM, snywx said:

Has 30-40" NW of NYC... I can't believe this.

you and the lower hudson valley has a very good chance at 30"+

[IsentropicLift]

  On 1/25/2015 at 6:34 PM, wthrmn654 said:

What's up with the lesser amounts over eastern long islands and up along Rhode island Connecticut border?Maybe a hiccup or something else?

Slightly less dynamics and Warner temps

[Allsnow]

  On 1/25/2015 at 6:33 PM, nick5892 said:

Understood just seems like the euros numbers are way way higher than even those models. Is it closing off even sooner than the nam and ukie?

It stalls and vertically stacks at a better area for us to snow for a longer time

[uncle W]

  On 1/25/2015 at 6:32 PM, rossi said:

Kind of mind boggling that we could have another storm Thirsday night

 

it seems after every big storm there's another one forecast...there have been only two times NYC had 9" or more twice in one week...1926 and 1994...many times the second one doesn't work out...1996 had one a few days after the blizzard but it wasn't a big snow event...

 

[IsentropicLift]

Conservative SV maps have 18" plus region wide

[BL03]

It's funny when I loaded up 48hr panel (don't have access to pay site) I saw the 500mb and SLP setup and said to myself "this doesn't make total sense..unless it....it loops!!!! omg" came here and was confirmed.. haha wow

[nick5892]

  On 1/25/2015 at 6:34 PM, Allsnow said:

It stalls and vertically stacks at a better area for us to snow for a longer time

Ahhh I see I see. Thanks for the explanation

[wthrmn654]

Everyone see the notice? Websites abouts to go down some time soon to do software updates,aft the worst possible time of course!

[IsentropicLift]

The surface freezing like very briefly grazes the twin forks

[SACRUS]

Time out - How is the ECM with the THu/Fri clipper?

[Rtd208]

Hey everyone, started an obs thread for the blizzard.

[Seth.P]

Is this going to be fluffy or wet snow?

[BL03]

Has to be done.  Site crashed at least 2x and the most imortant times are upcoming later into wednesday....   Great job to the folks ar america wx for doing this now.  Better now than having no site...

 

  On 1/25/2015 at 6:36 PM, wthrmn654 said:

Everyone see the notice? Websites abouts to go down some time soon to do software updates,aft the worst possible time of course!

[Allsnow]

  On 1/25/2015 at 6:38 PM, Seth.P said:

Is this going to be fluffy or wet snow?

 

 

powder 

[rossi]

  On 1/25/2015 at 6:38 PM, Seth.P said:

Is this going to be fluffy or wet snow?

A white snow!!

[forkyfork]

  On 1/25/2015 at 6:38 PM, Seth.P said:

Is this going to be fluffy or wet snow?

our only inhibitor to 20:1 ratios is wind at this point

[bluewave]

  On 1/25/2015 at 6:28 PM, jm1220 said:

That 850mb jet coming in from the Atlantic looks absolutely insane. The same feature existed in the 2/8/13 storm and produced the ridiculous banding over CT and Suffolk County. There are definitely some people who will approach 30" from this. 

 

It just doesn't get any better than this.

 

[RUMG11]

  On 1/25/2015 at 6:42 PM, forkyfork said:

our only inhibitor to 20:1 ratios is wind at this point

Chances of 15:1-17:1?

[SnowDemon]

  On 1/25/2015 at 6:36 PM, wthrmn654 said:

Everyone see the notice? Websites abouts to go down some time soon to do software updates,aft the worst possible time of course!

 

Why oh why wouldn't they wait a couple of days? Ridiculous.

[SnoSki14]

  On 1/25/2015 at 6:43 PM, bluewave said:

It just doesn't get any better than this.

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_eus_3.png

I was wondering about the winds. Maybe 50mph gusts in parts of NJ?

[jm1220]

  On 1/25/2015 at 6:43 PM, bluewave said:

It just doesn't get any better than this.

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_eus_3.png

The jet looks to get further west than 2/8/13, so the heavy banding should have no problem making it to NYC and west. That right there screams huge snow rates-tremendous amount of moisture being pulled west. 

[RUMG11]

  On 1/25/2015 at 6:44 PM, SnowDemon said:

Why oh why wouldn't they wait a couple of days? Ridiculous.

Because tonight and tomorrow they're going to see the most traffic. Smart to get it out of the way now. Hopefully it's a quick matienence.

[Seth.P]

Are winds going to be a major part for Brooklyn? Really don't want to lose power.

[wthrmn654]

Hmm, I don't see any mix issues possibly coming close to happening, in my opinion

[CIK62]

Did not say how long upgrade will take. Just that it starts at 2PM. Risky business to introduce upgrade, unless it has been fully tested.

[EasternLI]

  On 1/25/2015 at 6:33 PM, snywx said:

Looks like its picking up major subsidence from the mega band it's predicting over NNJ and the HV

 

Even with that, its still 2 feet of snow 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

This is really insane. O_O

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/WxBriefing_FB.pdf

[Allsnow]

The site being down helps me get some stuff done before the 18z gfs lol