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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

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A very impressive and possibly historic blizzard is looking more likely along the east coast and up through New England...just glancing at the 12z NAM...it's so cool to see the heavy banded snow centered in the deformation zone (top left) lining up just NW of the strongest 850mb WAA advection (top right) as well as the very strong 700mb vertical velocities signifying the strong upward motion/ascent (bottom left) Also, given how this storm is going to produce it's own very cold air (do a loop of 850mb  temps and you'll see the temps quickly cool as strong ascent helps get cold air downward and cool the column) snow ratios are going to quite high leading to some serious snowfall rates and totals, possibly in the 2-3ft range and some models will continue to show amounts higher than that which wouldn't surprise me if they verified. You have models spitting out nearly 2.5" of liquid (hi res will be even higher probably) and factor in a ratio of 15-20:1. Lastly, which I didn't show an image of..the 12z NAM has 925mb winds of 100kts, yes that high...just off the coast so you can bank on an all out blizzard in spots closer to the coast so it's nice to see blizzard watches already issued. 

 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

A very impressive and possibly historic blizzard is looking more likely along the east coast and up through New England...just glancing at the 12z NAM...it's so cool to see the heavy banded snow centered in the deformation zone (top left) lining up just NW of the strongest 850mb WAA advection (top right) as well as the very strong 700mb vertical velocities signifying the strong upward motion/ascent (bottom left) Also, given how this storm is going to produce it's own very cold air (do a loop of 850mb  temps and you'll see the temps quickly cool as strong ascent helps get cold air downward and cool the column) snow ratios are going to quite high leading to some serious snowfall rates and totals, possibly in the 2-3ft range and some models will continue to show amounts higher than that which wouldn't surprise me if they verified. You have models spitting out nearly 2.5" of liquid (hi res will be even higher probably) and factor in a ratio of 15-20:1. Lastly, which I didn't show an image of..the 12z NAM has 925mb winds of 100kts, yes that high...just off the coast so you can bank on an all out blizzard in spots closer to the coast so it's nice to see blizzard watches already issued. 

 

attachicon.gifboston storm.png

That 850mb jet coming in from the Atlantic looks absolutely insane. The same feature existed in the 2/8/13 storm and produced the ridiculous banding over CT and Suffolk County. There are definitely some people who will approach 30" from this. 

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RUMG11

RUMG11

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Yeah you don't go against the model that first saw this storm before anybody and has an amazing track record with historic storms. Even if things were to adjust further east you're still talking almost 2 feet of snow and is that map based off of 10:1 ratios?

 

Yepp. 10:1 ratios I believe. We can see closer to 15:1 depending on wind speeds 

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