Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[Rjay]

Tropical cyclones are warm core, typically winter systems are not. You can get a hybrid though.

Check out the 12z Euro (I think it was that run yesterday) that showed the same warm seclusion.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

I think the Euro will put a lot of the negative crisp to bed

This is a 12-24" storm with locally higher amounts. For everyone from TTN north and east.

[Guest Pamela]

Over the rainbow? 

 

:-)

 

 

 

Port Jeff is as close as any place to it...the rainbow, that is   Have a good one pal.

[Allsnow]

This is a 12-24" storm with locally higher amounts. For everyone from TTN north and east.

I tend to agree....but I want to see the Euro hold serve

[swamplover56]

Biggest euro run since 12z 12/25/2010

[dmillz25]

Thundersnow has to be possible with this storm right?

[Juliancolton]

Tropical cyclones are warm core, typically winter systems are not. You can get a hybrid though.

...read up on the Shapiro-Keyser cyclone model.

 

Edit: That is to say, I agree the Canadian solution is dubious. I wouldn't discount it based on a very real and widely forecast meteorological phenomenon, though.

[SnoSki14]

Doesn't the euro usually follow the Ukmet to some degree I used to hear mets mention it.

[MJO812]

The line in Stop and Shop was insane. They think the end of the world is coming tomorrow.

[Guest Pamela]

Amazingly tight cyclone generating its own cold air aloft...aided & abetted by the developing arctic anticyclone over Quebec...look at the region of localized -10 C temps @850 mb progged from around CT down to coastal NJ on the west side of the system. 

[SACRUS]

Doesn't the euro usually follow the Ukmet to some degree I used to hear mets mention it.

 

 

Not sure where this tidbit originated but both are separate forecast systems.  Tradiaionally, the ECM and UKMet are 1 and 2 in the model performance.  SO with the uk run coming out first then the ecm maybe that's where it started.

[Yaz]

Doesn't the euro usually follow the Ukmet to some degree I used to hear mets mention it.

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pmsl_verif/TSER_PMSL_MRDG_DAY3_ANOMCORR.gif

[swamplover56]

Blizzard warnings at 4 pm if euro holds?

[Rjay]

Blizzard warnings at 4 pm if euro holds?

Blizzard warnings regardless if the Euro holds or ticks east 25 miles. Probably tonight at 11....but it doesn't matter when it's inevitable.

[Allsnow]

Doesn't the euro usually follow the Ukmet to some degree I used to hear mets mention it.

It's not really more west or east etc....it's all about where h5 closes off....regardless 6+ is likely

[SnoSki14]

It's not really more west or east etc....it's all about where h5 closes off....regardless 6+ is likely

That's true because all of the models show a great track.

[SRRTA22]

If 12z euro holds serve, I am going to lose my mind lol

[wthrmn654]

Well being I'm in orient,ny EASTERN most point on long island minus Montauk lol, blizzard party and all here! I'm in for epic pounding but my truck,tracked drive snow blower are ready!

[pazzo83]

There's a reason why the Euro is so superior.  I was reading from their site about their setup, (http://www.ecmwf.int/en/computing/our-facilities), and they have a supercomputer configuration that provides multiple petaflop processing power.  A petaflop is 10 ¹⁵ floating point operations per second, which is insane.  The most powerful comp in the world in China is around 30-35 petaflop.  I don't think the US models run on hardware anywhere near this powerful.

[MikeS]

The King has initialized.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

It's not really more west or east etc....it's all about where h5 closes off....regardless 6+ is likely

This. 

[Juliancolton]

Euro looks to have initialized. May the odds be ever in our favor.

[pazzo83]

Euro looks to have initialized. May the odds be ever in our favor.

 

Here here.

[Morris]

Here comes the Euro. Initialized.

[Rjay]

Let allsnow, yanksfan and/or Superstorm93 do the pbp if they are around.

[tdp146]

The King has initialized.

....pin drop

[DiehardFF]

You guys are in a better spot then back home for me, in SE PA. I am at college in New Haven, debating to go back home to support my fire department.

Almost euro time.

[rossi]

Can you all please let one person do the analysis!!  

 

Rossi

[swamplover56]

Feel like a kid Christmas morning

[Superstorm93]

Euro is up through 12 hours.

Low pressure over TN/KY