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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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SleetStormNJ

SleetStormNJ

Posted
Posted

WPC dismissing the GFS for some Convective feedback that skews its final solution. The precip shield on the GEM look way too compact and intense. This is a winter storm, not a hybrid system.

 

Check out the 500mb upper air chart of the 12z GFS and tell me it's surface depiction makes sense.  You can't.

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Superstorm93

Superstorm93

Posted
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Check out the 500mb upper air chart of the 12z GFS and tell me it's surface depiction makes sense. You can't.

It doesn't at all. Granted I had some heart palpitations when I heard that the GFS/CMC were East, but if you can actually look at them and diagnose why they are East, then you shouldn't be panicking at all.

3c27e0b3886b3c3f35d0bc1987b23024.jpg

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SleetStormNJ

SleetStormNJ

Posted
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Ratios should be very good. Soundings show good lift in the dendrite growth zone-meaning high ratio snowflakes should be common. High wind can cut down on ratios somewhat, but it should be a solid 12-15:1. 

 

I think people are letting the "Nemo" or Feb 2013 event scare them a bit here which I understand, but I love the look of this so much more than that event for where I am.

 

The trough orientation to me looks much better, A nicely timed cold air mass.  A nice strong clipper system.

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Nygmen

Nygmen

Posted
Posted

WPC dismissing the GFS for some Convective feedback that skews its final solution. The precip shield on the GEM look way too compact and intense. This is a winter storm, not a hybrid system.

agreed 100 percent...the ggem is like 12 inches for the city and like 25+ for me lol...dont buy that

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jm1220

jm1220

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Posted

I used to ask this question now and then on this type of forum.  What would you rather have, 8 inches where you are the jackpot, or would you rather get a foot even though someone else gets 16?  The responses were surprisingly honest - half would actually rather be the jackpot of a smaller storm.  20 years ago I would have said the same thing.  Now i think I'd rather get the foot.  I think.

It always sparks jealousy when you get a certain amount of snow but not far from you has double. 2/8/13 was one of those occasions-I had about a foot of snow at home but 40 miles away had easily 2 feet. We battled rain and sleet for a long time while the megaband set up just to my east. I remember going for a drive out to Suffolk the next day and being blown away at what I saw. It's like eating something sweet but following it up with something sweeter, and afterwards the first thing you ate isn't sweet anymore. 

 

It's actually almost relieving being where I am now, knowing I'm getting nothing and being able to watch this from afar. It obviously sucks that I won't get any snow, but I won't be nervously watching a band show up on radar and watching where it will pivot.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

You are in a perfect spot for this storm

 

You never count your chickens before they are hatched; but I do think Long Island stands to do fairly well here.  Also throw in the fact that temperatures aloft will be fairly cold and you still have a Long Island Sound with a sea surface temperature around +4 C...definitely would expect some enhancement of precipitation as northeast winds rip off the Sound.

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Rjay

Rjay

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You never count your chickens before they are hatched; but I do think Long Island stands to do fairly well here. Also throw in the fact that temperatures aloft will be fairly cold and you still have a Long Island Sound with a sea surface temperature around +4 C...definitely would expect some enhancement of precipitation as northeast winds rip off the Sound.

Yea fairly well...I love where we sit for this storm!

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

You never count your chickens before they are hatched; but I do think Long Island stands to do fairly well here. Also throw in the fact that temperatures aloft will be fairly cold and you still have a Long Island Sound with a sea surface temperature around +4 C...definitely would expect some enhancement of precipitation as northeast winds rip off the Sound.

Reminds me of nemo...just should be more snow to the sw. Well at least I hope

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chietanen

chietanen

Posted
Posted

1/25 12z Summary

NYC area : QPF (Snow)

SREF: 1.50 - 1.75 (>16")

NAM: 1.50 - 1.75 (>18")

GFS: 0.80 - 1.00 (>10")

RGEM: 1.00 (>12")

GGEM: 0.75 - 0.95 (>10")

UKMET: 1.65 - 1.80 (>20")

GEFS: 1.25 - 1.50 (>20")

Seriously folks, look at this. 10-20". Stop jumping! And do yourself a favor and stay out of the NE forum.

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
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This definitely looks like a storm where Pamela, NorthShoreWx and that crowd in Suffolk should see 24"+. Hopefully Nassau cracks 18".

I think anyone east of nyc is 18" at least. It the Euro holds serve almost everyone in our subforum could see those amounts.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
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If the GGEM is right, considering ratios, NYC would probably wind up with 12"-16" snowfall. Fewer than 20 storms have brought the City 15" or more snow since regular recordkeeping began in 1869. I'll certainly welcome such a storm even as I've support the notion that more snow is always better.

12" storms used to be in the historic category...Now it's 18-24" since the increase in snowfall the last 20 years...12-16" would rival January 2005's storm...

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Sn0waddict

Sn0waddict

Posted
Posted

This definitely looks like a storm where Pamela, NorthShoreWx and that crowd in Suffolk should see 24"+. Hopefully Nassau cracks 18". 

 

Suffolk is going to get crushed, No chance of mixing, and I think any dry slot issues would stay more east towards southeast MA. Somewhere like Block Island would be an awesome place to be for this storm.

 

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