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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted
  On 1/26/2015 at 6:22 PM, Plfdwxdude said:

Gotta hope for at least 15:1 ratios for that to happen

1.5 at 12 to 1 is 18 

1.75 at 12 to 1 is 21 .

Not impossible 

SREF is `1.5 

EURO is 1.5

NAM  2.5 .....  

 

Need 1.75 and you get home 

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cny_tornado_lover

cny_tornado_lover

Posted
Posted
  On 1/26/2015 at 6:24 PM, stlirish said:

Based on QPF printouts, yes. But they have other factors that are leading them to higher numbers. I got faith in them.

Sent from my iPhone

Or it could be less... Funny how everyone seems to think it is always more precip than what the models show. But it also could be less. ~Norm

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

I just realized that the NWS, which previously had the area (NE-NJ/NYC) in the 20-30" range under the Blizzard Warning and had brought it down to the high, yet more reasonable 18-24".....has raised it back up to 20-30" at 12:56pm today (BEFORE the Euro run).....lol.....what would possibly be the benefit in doing that?

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stlirish

stlirish

Posted
Posted
  On 1/26/2015 at 6:34 PM, WintersGrasp said:

I just realized that the NWS, which previously had the area (NE-NJ/NYC) in the 20-30" range under the Blizzard Warning and had brought it down to the high, yet more reasonable 18-24".....has raised it back up to 20-30" at 12:56pm today (BEFORE the Euro run).....lol.....what would possibly be the benefit in doing that?

B/c they know how to forecast and not be married to each new model run

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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RUMG11

RUMG11

Posted
Posted
  On 1/26/2015 at 6:34 PM, WintersGrasp said:

I just realized that the NWS, which previously had the area (NE-NJ/NYC) in the 20-30" range under the Blizzard Warning and had brought it down to the high, yet more reasonable 18-24".....has raised it back up to 20-30" at 12:56pm today (BEFORE the Euro run).....lol.....what would possibly be the benefit in doing that?

Perhaps they see something we don't? It seems they updated the maps as soon as the negative tilt was evident. That may be a bigger player in this thing then we all may think currently.

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