Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[jm1220]

NYC would probably be good with 12-18" given the 12z trends with local amounts to 20.

[IsentropicLift]

It was negative tilt quicker this run, it even closed off 3 hours sooner, but everything was moving at a faster clip. I'm not really sure what to think at this point as the actual banding will be very difficult to forecast.

[stockmanjr]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:03 PM, WintersGrasp said:

Actually though, based on that map.....they are pretty close with their 18"+ call and the 24"+ area.....obviously a much sharper western cutoff

I'm not an expert but that looks like 18''+ for NYC on that map. We all know that the banding can be extremely fickle and that someone will end up with a jackpot amount. It should be interesting where the bands set up. When does the HRRR come into play for this?

Cheers

Howie

[rossi]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:04 PM, PB GFI said:

 

Runs N S

.8 NWNJ to Trenton 

1 inch NCNJ

1.3 Just west of EWR 

1.4 EWR 

1.5 KNYC 

1.6 KJFK

1.8 Nassau Suffolk Boder 

1.9 KISP 

2 East end 

x 12 to 1 

 

Hey where are we in Monmouth?

[Allsnow]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:00 PM, rossi said:

All whats Monmouth?

Close to 1.25

[wolfie09]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:00 PM, rossi said:

All whats Monmouth?

Kblm is 1.5"

[PB GFI]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:05 PM, rossi said:

Hey where are we in Monmouth?

1.5 EAST  OF 18 

1.3 ALONG I95 

[IsentropicLift]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:04 PM, BxEngine said:

Can you or allsnow post the timing of the event when you get a chance? Doesnt have to be too specific just rough estimates.

Heavy stuff moves in after 00z tonight. Then height of the storm is from about 06z to 18z Tuesday. Then lighter stuff persists until about 00z.

[ag3]

1.8" for Queens on the euro. That's over 20" of snow.

[BxEngine]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:07 PM, IsentropicLift said:

Heavy stuff moves in after 00z tonight. Then height of the storm is from about 06z to 18z Tuesday. Then lighter stuff persists until about 00z.

Gracias.

[MJO812]

This run still crushes the whole area

[IsentropicLift]

The snow building into Western NNJ looks better than what was predicted.

[Allsnow]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:04 PM, BxEngine said:

Can you or allsnow post the timing of the event when you get a chance? Doesnt have to be too specific just rough estimates.

03z-06z the steady snow starts

Heavy from 06to 21z Tuesday....accumulating snow lingers longer on long island

[IsentropicLift]

I think the problem is that people are expecting widespread 30"+. 10-20" with higher amounts is nothing to sneeze about.

[Rtd208]

This is a very tough call to see where things eventually setup and how the storm will evolve. I still think 2' amounts are still possible for the metro region especially NENJ on east. For right now 12-18" seems like a good way to go at this point.

[PB GFI]

KNYC 1.5 at  12 to 1 is 18  . West of the river where the winds are less they are prob 15 to 1 

 

Would like to ask Bill does he think we are 12 to 1 , and would winds kill 15 to 1 at the coast 

[stockmanjr]

NWS just updated their warning for NYC on East

* ACCUMULATIONS.SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 20 TO 30 INCHES WITH
 LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS..ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
 CT.

[Superstorm93]

00z/12z Comparison 

 

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

Euro playing catch-up here to the other models. 2.5 in NYC, down to 2.2, now down to 1.5, QPF been trending downward. RGEM looks best here, probably a 10-14" storm around NYC and then more as you he E/NE across LI and SNE. THe Miller B latebloomers always favor NE. Euro missed on this one, it's been overamped on a few lately, late last winter in SNE and a few storms her this winter.

[PB GFI]

KNYC

Great job by the SREFs  1.50 -1.75

Euro is 1.5 

The NAM is 2.5 ( Would expect this to shave closer to 2 at 18z ) .

 

Great snowstorm 

[Allsnow]

12-18 is a good call nyc metro 2ft+ on long island

[stlirish]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:02 PM, Superstorm93 said:

Its a good storm, but will fall short of current NWS projections.

Plus that gradient is rather intense

Now as Bill said at NWS, move those bands West some (25-50 miles). There is your NWS forecast.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[WintersGrasp]

What I've noticed with the Euro is that unlike other models, it does tend to trend downward with amounts, rather than just have them disappear like the NAM or GFS

[friedmators]

Looks like the Euro isnt as sharp at H5 compared to current mesoscale analysis for 18Z.

[jm1220]

Euro still prints out 2 feet for NYC and east.

[ILoveWinter]

Euro just a bit east and with less precip but still great. Honestly this is now cast time and as we all know things always have and always will shift a bit during this time.

[IsentropicLift]

Mt. Holly holding strong

 

[MJO812]

All NYC public schools are now closed tomorrow. The City is also telling people to get home by 11pm because the roads will be shut down.

[Rjay]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:16 PM, friedmators said:

Looks like the Euro isnt as sharp at H5 compared to current mesoscale analysis for 18Z.

You're correct. None of the models are. We'll find out what that means in sensible weather later.

[LnbWx]

No means a bad run. But totals will come down all over NJ(including NE NJ) with the 4pm update I think. May be to 10-18" instead of 18-24".