Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[Morch Madness]

Holy **** how is this happening

[IsentropicLift]

Closes off 3 hours sooner

[Superstorm93]

There's going to be a sharper gradient on the western side. 

 

Just vomiting subsidence. Much less QPF by 27 hours. 

[Allsnow]

hr24 ccb ripping .50+

[MJO812]

This run looks like less snow than the past runs. SNE gets crushed.

[mikeysed]

Euro is very much on the money. This initialized with it going negative quicker which is what's happening REAL TIME! I have no doubt the Euro is really saying sit down to all the other models. lol

[snow1]

Still less snow than before?

[IsentropicLift]

It's taking the super strong dynamics and sending them more up into New England this run. The final numbers are probably going to be less.

[Superstorm93]

SNE gets absolutely destroyed this run by heavy dynamics. Precip over NYC/NJ is much weaker compared to the past four runs. 

[Animal]

too many different view points on the euro.

Huge hit, less snow etc

[WintersGrasp]

  On 1/26/2015 at 5:56 PM, Animal said:

too many different view points on the euro.

Huge hit, less snow etc

It is less....from what I can see, much less for us but I think all of LI does well

[Allsnow]

.6 for phl

.7-.9 ttn

[Ericjcrash]

Just a simple QPF summary would go a long way.

[MJO812]

Low is in the same exact spot. The deform band just moved and we know how fickle those bands can be.

[Allsnow]

1.00 to smq

[Animal]

  On 1/26/2015 at 5:57 PM, Allsnow said:

.6 for phl

.7-.9 ttn

 

Thanks for the numbers. Looks like I should be around a inch or so

[IsentropicLift]

It's still going to be 1"+ from MMU East and more than that closer to the city. Surface winds look pretty minor for most of NJ so better ratios could probably be salvaged. SV maps have 12-15" from NE NJ to about the Tappan Zee and then go up from there.

[ag3]

NYC looks like over 1.50" on the Euro.

[rossi]

  On 1/26/2015 at 5:59 PM, Allsnow said:

1.00 to smq

All whats Monmouth?

[NEXtreme]

  On 1/26/2015 at 5:58 PM, Snow88 said:

Low is in the same exact spot. The deform band just moved and we know how fickle those bands can be.

It's likely just trying to figure out where the super bands set up...

It's really nowcasting time ... Radar lighting up!

[WintersGrasp]

12"-20"+ from NENJ to ELI....big hit of course but nothing at all like what it was. Near 3 feet south of BOS

[MJO812]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:00 PM, WintersGrasp said:

12"-20"+ from NENJ to ELI....big hit of course but nothing at all like what it was

Those amounts were absurd. Now the banding is really unpredictable.

[Animal]

  On 1/26/2015 at 5:59 PM, IsentropicLift said:

It's still going to be 1"+ from MMU East and more than that closer to the city. Surface winds look pretty minor for most of NJ so better ratios could probably be salvaged. SV maps have 12-15" from NE NJ to about the Tappan Zee and then go up from there.

 

Looks as if it has cut my local area precip total by 50 percent in 24 hours.

Sorta following the GFS model.

[Superstorm93]

Its a good storm, but will fall short of current NWS projections. 

 

Plus that gradient is rather intense 

 

[IsentropicLift]

At hour 18 The Euro closes off 3/4 of the way. Had that occured things would have been explosive here. Also the storm was moving 3-6 hours faster than 00z.

[Brian5671]

Holy crap is that 30 inches over W CT?

[WintersGrasp]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:02 PM, Superstorm93 said:

Its a good storm, but will fall short of current NWS projections.

Actually though, based on that map.....they are pretty close with their 18"+ call and the 24"+ area.....obviously a much sharper western cutoff

[PB GFI]

Runs N S

.8 NWNJ to Trenton 

1 inch NCNJ

1.3 Just west of EWR 

1.4 EWR 

1.5 KNYC 

1.6 KJFK

1.8 Nassau Suffolk Boder 

1.9 KISP 

2 East end 

x 12 to 1 

[Allsnow]

1.5 to nyc

[BxEngine]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:03 PM, IsentropicLift said:

At hour 18 The Euro closes off 3/4 of the way. Had that occured things would have been explosive here. Also the storm was moving 3-6 hours faster than 00z.

Can you or allsnow post the timing of the event when you get a chance? Doesnt have to be too specific just rough estimates.