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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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ForestHillWx

ForestHillWx

Posted
Posted

The water vapor loop is great; I would imagine Euro stays the course. Other than the models blowing up the convection closer to the Gulf Stream, what would be the forcing mechanism to push the Euro east dramatically? The trough is negative now. I think it will all come together for some great snow rates tonight. Good vibes all the way.

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jdt

jdt

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  On 1/26/2015 at 5:38 PM, ForestHillWx said:

The water vapor loop is great; I would imagine Euro stays the course. Other than the models blowing up the convection closer to the Gulf Stream, what would be the forcing mechanism to push the Euro east dramatically? The trough is negative now. I think it will all come together for some great snow rates tonight. Good vibes all the way.

Trough has gone negative next big thing is exactly when and where the upper low closes off this evening / tonight. Thus far the atmosphere seems to be following along with the Euro. Lets see it the upcoming Euro keeps the same tune. I would be very surprised if it shifts more that a minor wobble one way or the other. Of course any wooble east more the 25 miles will be worrisome especially for the western folks.

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

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  On 1/26/2015 at 5:40 PM, Superstorm93 said:

Wow, unless I'm totally sleep deprived and hallucinating badly, it appears Upton upped the totals in some places.

The way that this storm will probably work out though is that if there is a widespread 24-36" area, most will probably be 24 with lollipops of 36 with best banding. I doubt there will be a widespread 18-24" just west of it though, as all models are showing that the totals do not gradually decrease, but do so very sharply. This map seems like I follow the NAM I guess with the huge totals from NYC-east
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jdt

jdt

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  On 1/26/2015 at 5:45 PM, Joe4alb said:

yeah NWS upped them again 24 - 36 after dropping them down to 18 - 24 last night

Remember Bill from upton said the 24-36" on the map is base selection that cannot be modified. Read the text forecast to see what they actually mean which may be 24-30. Either what its a ton of snow. ;)

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jbenedet

jbenedet

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  On 1/26/2015 at 5:38 PM, middlesea said:

Just saw this...note the time stamp. Is this correct?

 

Created: 01/26/15 12:28 PM EST

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

 

I really dislike the subtle drop off in accums west and north of Essex, Bergen, Middlesex, and Union counties. I think the drop off will be severe and it's more a function of subsidence and very intense snows just to the east, than anything else...

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svh19044

svh19044

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  On 1/26/2015 at 5:33 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

The SPC WRF matches the current radar somewhat well, its similar in that ERN NJ east does well but not much west...here is the 05Z frame, from here everything starts inching east

 

 

refd_1000m_f17.gif

 

Current radar is way west of the SPC WRF, no? 

 

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