Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[yhbrooklyn]

It went a bit east with the low placement and the 2"+ precip is now just barely west of NYC instead of extending west through much of NJ and up into the Lower HV. Definitely a shift east, but still hammers NYC on East.

[LnbWx]

Oh wow, can't wait to see what pro mets and Upton/Mt.Holly thinks about this.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

According to the Euro, NYC might actually do better than SNE!

[USCG RS]

Ladies and gentlemen, the Euro has held

[PB GFI]

THRU 54  

KNYC 2.3 OUT ONTO LONG ISLAND

2.5 INTO WCT

2 INCHES DOWN INTO MONMOUTH COUNTY

1 INCH BACK TO THE HILLS OF NWNJ

1.5 BACK TO TRENTON

 

LONG LIVE THE KING

[Superstorm93]

Wow, okay. 

 

So we close off much later than the previous runs. Instead of over DE, its over LI 

[AlaskaETC]

Euro is still a nice victory for NYC, congrats guys (if it holds)!

[jm1220]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:05 AM, superjames1992 said:

It actually did come significantly east from the 12z run, FWIW.  It's still easily a massive, historic storm for the NYC metro, though.  It does make a difference in NW NJ, though, where totals were significantly slashed.  Totals are also cut down a lot for Albany.  It makes little difference for NYC, though; both runs were clobberings.

It was always a stretch that Philly and E PA would get in on the massive totals in a storm like this. 

[yhbrooklyn]

I really feel for the NWS. Their job is tough.

[IsentropicLift]

just like I said, no major shifts

[PB GFI]

Who`s the first to step up and apologize to Upton and Mt Holly ?

 

Great job by the offices .

[superjames1992]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:06 AM, jm1220 said:

It was always a stretch that Philly and E PA would get in on the massive totals in a storm like this. 

 

Agreed.  I don't think any other modeling was really showing that.  Interesting conundrum for meteorologists now with the Euro vs. the world.  Either way, it looks like you all should make out with 10"+, so it should be a great storm... and if the Euro's right, 20"+... a historic one.

[Mophstymeo]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:07 AM, yhbrooklyn said:

I really feel for the NWS. Their job is tough.

It's thankless.

[Animal]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:05 AM, LnbWx said:

Oh wow, can't wait to see what pro mets and Upton/Mt.Holly thinks about this.

 

I think they trim down totals.

[LongIslandWx]

This run of the Euro fits well with the Blizzard Warning snowfall accumulation forecasts of 20-30" across the NYC Metro and LI issued earlier today. 

[Zir0b]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:06 AM, PB GFI said:

THRU 54  

KNYC 2.3 OUT ONTO LONG ISLAND

2.5 INTO WCT

2 INCHES DOWN INTO MONMOUTH COUNTY

1 INCH BACK TO THE HILLS OF NWNJ

1.5 BACK TO TRENTON

 

LONG LIVE THE KING

still not a lock...would like the other models to get on board! 

[kevbo81]

so where do we go from here?

[scooter13]

I don't get how there can be such a big difference between the American models and the ECMWF when the event is happening today!

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:09 AM, kevbo81 said:

so where do we go from here?

Radar loops dude

[Superstorm93]

Thank you Dr. Maue 

 

[jm1220]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:08 AM, superjames1992 said:

Agreed.  I don't think any other modeling was really showing that.  Interesting conundrum for meteorologists now with the Euro vs. the world.  Either way, it looks like you all should make out with 10"+, so it should be a great storm... and if the Euro's right, 20"+... a historic one.

I'm going to make out with 75 and sunny on Tuesday here in Texas.

 

And maybe, twins. One can hope anyway.

[Rjay]

Forky the 1" line is all the way in extreme western NJ and west west of PHl

[FreeRain]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:04 AM, Superstorm93 said:

Precip amounts are infinitely more realistic this run, and the intense banding stops once you get to NE NJ. 

 

I'll take this in a damned heartbeat over the consensus. 

So the poster who said that the Euro would compromise a little bit by cutting back a little bit on precip was correct.  

"Widespread" 24" now replaces widespread 30".

[Rjay]

Nevermind...superstorm post a map lol

[RUMG11]

Now-casting time. Check out that radar. Thumping. 

[UnionWeatherWx]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:07 AM, yhbrooklyn said:

I really feel for the NWS. Their job is tough.

Ikr, its just hell for them atm.

[Zynlamar]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:09 AM, kevbo81 said:

so where do we go from here?

Now cast...

[Zir0b]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:10 AM, Superstorm93 said:

Thank you Dr. Maue 

 

that map pretty much matches perfectly what Upton/Mt Holly have right now...

[NEXtreme]

DT saying Euro DID NOT SHIFT EAST.

I'll tell you what, would anybody be shocked if the rest of the models begin to shift west now?

[pazzo83]

  On 1/26/2015 at 6:10 AM, jm1220 said:

I'm going to make out with 75 and sunny on Tuesday here in Texas.

 

And maybe, twins. One can hope anyway.