Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[Morris]

Let's move over here for the 12z suite.

[MJO812]

9z SREF Plume has a mean of 21.7 inches for NYC

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150125&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=41.834528837056816&mLON=-72.71068251953125&mTYP=roadmap

[Morris]

  On 1/25/2015 at 1:49 PM, Snow88 said:

9z SREF Plume has a mean of 21.7 inches for NYChttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150125&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=41.834528837056816&mLON=-72.71068251953125&mTYP=roadmap

Holy God

Many members clustered around 30 inches.

[SnoSki14]

  On 1/25/2015 at 1:49 PM, Snow88 said:

9z SREF Plume has a mean of 21.7 inches for NYC http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150125&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=41.834528837056816&mLON=-72.71068251953125&mTYP=roadmap

Look at all the members above 25" wow!

[Allsnow]

Woof woof

[USCG RS]

Out of curiosity... Where is John (earthlight)?

[Jersey Shore snow]

Improvements already at 9hrs on the NAM at 500. Digging a bit deeper, closed low, heights slighter on East Coast

[IsentropicLift]

NAM will be West, major changes with the entire trough orientation

[swamplover56]

Flurries in west orange nj

[Morris]

  On 1/25/2015 at 1:58 PM, USCG RS said:

Out of curiosity... Where is John (earthlight)?

He's phasing into the energy now.

[IsentropicLift]

Light snow showers bedore daybreak

[Jersey Shore snow]

  On 1/25/2015 at 1:59 PM, IsentropicLift said:

NAM will be West, major changes with the entire trough orientation

 

Agree, this may be the run that finally jumps on board

[Heisy]

Pretty big changes on the NAM it will def come west.

[Heisy]

Gun to my head I'd say NYC would be the best place to be for this storm out of the major cities.

[DaveTinNY]

Waiting for John's discussion. Had flurries on the way into work this morning at 5:30. Rockland to Dutchess County, NY.

[Brian5671]

  On 1/25/2015 at 2:03 PM, DaveTinNY said:

Waiting for John's discussion. Had flurries on the way into work this morning at 5:30. Rockland to Dutchess County, NY.

 

That's the cold front moving through-delivering the goods!

[NJCoast]

Sleet and/or graupel driving through East Brunswick.

[IsentropicLift]

Light snow overspreading southern areas by late morning.

[IsentropicLift]

Light snow overspreading the rest of the area by lunch time.

[Breene]

Evening commute monday is going to be a nightmare. Everything seems earlier

[IsentropicLift]

Ripping snow in the city and on LI and coastal NJ by early afternoon. Moderate snow well inland on the southeast flow off the ocean.

[NEG NAO]

  On 1/25/2015 at 1:58 PM, USCG RS said:

Out of curiosity... Where is John (earthlight)?

He hasn't posted in this forum since December 18 - anyways very difficult to pinpoint who will get how many inches and I expect wide variations in the totals within a short distance which has occurred in many of our MEC/HECS storms in recent years - the last 15 years have been an historic period in NYC considering there have only been 36 storms above 12 inches in recorded history and quite a few have been in the last 15 years....

[mikeysed]

  On 1/25/2015 at 2:13 PM, IsentropicLift said:

Ripping snow in the city and on LI and coastal NJ by early afternoon. Moderate snow well inland on the southeast flow off the ocean.

 

The heaviest stuff seems to go back to about MMU and then moderate all way past Easton PA.

[IsentropicLift]

Nothing like 06z. Snow coming right in off the ocean over the whole area on the southeast moisture flow.

[IsentropicLift]

Already over a half inch liquid by tomorrow afternoon on the coast.

[sferic]

Does anyone have the text or memory of what NYC Mets were calling for in the March 2001 storm that fizzled for NYC? Also what was the qpf?

[MJO812]

Bullseye at 45 hours over NYC. WOW.

[mikemost]

It's comforting to see the NAM coming on board. Not just due to the fact that it's falling in line with the global consensus, but because it's taking into account the better sampled shortwave.

[packfan98]

  On 1/25/2015 at 2:23 PM, Snow88 said:

Bullseye at 45 hours over NYC. WOW.

 

Yep, and that's when the 1 foot totals start showing up on the clown map.

 

Edit:  And 3 hours later, the totals are up to 18-20 inches.  WOW!  That's going to be a major whiteout for 3-6 hours for sure.

[mikeysed]

Keep in mind the ratios... does IWM do ratios or assume 10:1?