yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM = YES PLEASE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Bullseye of a foot of snow near DC on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 hmmm...just a thought...since it is showing up on every model (even the euro its just weaker) perhaps the inverted trough is real. In that case we need the weaker coastal solution of the NAM/GFS/GGEM because that allows more moisture to train into the inverted trough. The more the coastal bombs the more it will cut off that effect from the sinking air to the west of the killer CCB band that will set up. A more broken up storm like the NAM/GGEM and to some extent GFS has seems to allow us to get some nice banding with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 people are going to see the NAM QPF and do a double take, but I don't think the NAM is capable of nailing little nuances like that at 48 hours out....this idea that the coastal will randomly toss back a small jackpot of precip right over us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 "But the NAM sucks! This run won't count." - Tomorrow morning on this board. GFS is the most consistent as of late but I wouldn't toss the NAM as we are getting closer to its wheel house. I think the EURO has been fairly inconsistent all winter. Tends to over amp things. Both the 00z and 06z NAM had less for nyc and more for IAD let's see if that trend continues tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 people are going to see the NAM QPF and do a double take, but I don't think the NAM is capable of nailing little nuances like that at 48 hours out....this idea that the coastal will randomly toss back a small jackpot of precip right over us.... Starts hr 39 or so But this run gave hope to the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I hope you guys around DC get that band. My area doesn't really get into anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 LWX nudged their WSWatches east a column of counties... DC not in watch yet... IAD is.. BWI no for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Depends on the January snowstorm...lol NYC's climo is 28" per winter. BOS is 42-43" and Philly is 22-23". DC is maybe about 18-20"? That's correct. DC is around 18-20" per season. So BOS gets the kind of snow most years that WE GOT LAST WINTER! (Check out my sig lol). That means that an 8 to 12 inch snowstorm is normal for Bostonians. I need to stop hatin' and move up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM at hour 54, 8-9" in DC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I hope you guys around DC get that band. My area doesn't really get into anything like that. The NAM doesn't have that kind of skill at 40+ hours.....to nail some small enhanced area....neither the idea itself and certainly not the location.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 people are going to see the NAM QPF and do a double take, but I don't think the NAM is capable of nailing little nuances like that at 48 hours out....this idea that the coastal will randomly toss back a small jackpot of precip right over us.... Its not random, its from an inverted trough that is aligned right through our area left over from the old primary low and the h5 trough axis going negative. Normally I don't count on those at all...and its still risky, but its been on every run for 5 or 6 runs in a row now. Even the Euro has it, but the precip gets killed because it develops a monster ccb band from the coastal and the sinking air outside that band cuts off any moisture transport into the trough. That trough is a real feature, it is there, and if the coastal doesn't go ape like the euro shows it actually makes sense to get some banding training along its axis. Something similar to what happened a few years ago up in the Philly area, this is just displaces west of that event. I am rooting for a weaker secondary low to allow this feature to do us some good. I am starting to believe it may actually be there like modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Why do all the good runs have to come from the NAM :(I'll be praying at the altar of the GFS for the next hour. Gfs had a similar inverted trough at 0z, I think it's our best shot at getting to warning criteria, but those sorts of features can be really fickle so it's got big bust written all over it. A weenie can hope and pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 336 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 MDZ006-011-504-506>508-VAZ026-027-029-030-040-501-506-507-WVZ506- 251645- /O.EXB.KLWX.WS.A.0001.150126T0200Z-150126T2300Z/ NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD- NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-PAGE- WARREN-RAPPAHANNOCK-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-EASTERN LOUDOUN- NORTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE-EASTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PARKTON...REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE... BALTIMORE...DUNDALK...CATONSVILLE...ROCKVILLE...COLUMBIA... ELLICOTT CITY...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN...HARRISONBURG... FRONT ROYAL...WASHINGTON...WARRENTON...LEESBURG...ASHBURN... BIG MEADOWS...FRANKLIN 336 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND LATE MONDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY WITH VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO NEAR ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL MAKE TRAVELING DANGEROUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Its not random, its from an inverted trough that is aligned right through our area left over from the old primary low and the h5 trough axis going negative. Normally I don't count on those at all...and its still risky, but its been on every run for 5 or 6 runs in a row now. Even the Euro has it, but the precip gets killed because it develops a monster ccb band from the coastal and the sinking air outside that band cuts off any moisture transport into the trough. That trough is a real feature, it is there, and if the coastal doesn't go ape like the euro shows it actually makes sense to get some banding training along its axis. Something similar to what happened a few years ago up in the Philly area, this is just displaces west of that event. I am rooting for a weaker secondary low to allow this feature to do us some good. I am starting to believe it may actually be there like modeled. Nice breakdown, makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The NAM doesn't have that kind of skill at 40+ hours.....to nail some small enhanced area....neither the idea itself and certainly not the location.... Of course its not going to nail exactly where the heaviest bands set up, but the idea that there will be banding in our area has been on every run. It has to be considered as a real threat. what exact neighborhoods will get 9" vs 4" from such a storm is of course not going to be modeled accurately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 LWX nudged their WSWatches east a column of counties... DC not in watch yet... BWI and IAD are BWI isnt. It's in AA county. No watch for us yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 BWI isnt. It's in AA county. No watch for us yet. Yea BWI not in it yet, but most of the rest of metro Baltimore is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It appears that the Hi-Res 4K NAM has a similar idea of a heavy band setting up over DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It did, which is why I'm riding it That's our only real chance to get to warning criteria like you said. I highly doubt the NAM can nail this kind of feature, like Matt said, but if we can keep the GFS highlighting it and make it a bit stronger on the euro we may have a chance to not fail. I feel like I'm grasping here without hugging the NAM. Tough to do. I'm not going to hug the NAM either...but I am not going to poo-poo it either like some will do here today and on Twitter. It's almost reverse psychology. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 HI-RES Nam supports regular NAM with the band from C MD to DC to EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Its not random, its from an inverted trough that is aligned right through our area left over from the old primary low and the h5 trough axis going negative. Normally I don't count on those at all...and its still risky, but its been on every run for 5 or 6 runs in a row now. Even the Euro has it, but the precip gets killed because it develops a monster ccb band from the coastal and the sinking air outside that band cuts off any moisture transport into the trough. That trough is a real feature, it is there, and if the coastal doesn't go ape like the euro shows it actually makes sense to get some banding training along its axis. Something similar to what happened a few years ago up in the Philly area, this is just displaces west of that event. I am rooting for a weaker secondary low to allow this feature to do us some good. I am starting to believe it may actually be there like modeled. good analysis, but where that enhancement happens and how robust it is is not going to be captured by the NAM....I don't believe the Philly event was forecast well, and I think there was a Lancaster event too?, though maybe that was the same event. These things probably won't be forecast that well even close in. I don't think Norluns in New England are ever easily predictable in terms of intensity/location. I think all the models have had the general idea as you're depicting, but the NAM is not skilled enough to predict 1"+ at 48 hours in a specific area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 True. The NAM has areas where it can do well. If it were an automatic toss like say, the cras, we wouldn't be staying up wishing it'd give us hope. In my mind it is severely limited, but when it has support... It's definitely a bit further away than say the 1/9 clipper which the NAM nailed, but it tends to do better as we get closer. If a similar idea is shown in the 12z run, it needs attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 06z RGEM at 36 hrs -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3284_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 At hr. 30 on the high Rez NAM, we can see some energy transfer. Look at simulated radar. A big chunk of returns is seen east over the Atlantic. But good returns are seen over Howard county as well. Good stuff. Enhanced banding in the DC/Balto zone even as the energy transfers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 good analysis, but where that enhancement happens and how robust it is is not going to be captured by the NAM....I don't believe the Philly event was forecast well, and I think there was a Lancaster event too?, though maybe that was the same event. These things probably won't be forecast that well even close in. I don't think Norluns in New England are ever easily predictable in terms of intensity/location. I think all the models have had the general idea as you're depicting, but the NAM is not skilled enough to predict 1"+ at 48 hours in a specific area. you are right, where exactly the heavy bands set up can't be predicted but the general idea might be right, and some chance is better then none. The lancaster thing was the same event. There were several bands and most of eastern PA got some snow from it but it varied greatly with some places only getting a few inches while a town over got 12. I don't think the differences would be that drastic here as there would be some snow from the front end hopefully, then with more of a surface feature this time compared to that event, and good easterly fetch, we could see a more widespread band of snow then that event. Either way it would be a cool feature to have happen over us for a chance. Its possible, just hanging on to whatever hope we have left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 you are right, where exactly the heavy bands set up can't be predicted but the general idea might be right, and some chance is better then none. The lancaster thing was the same event. There were several bands and most of eastern PA got some snow from it but it varied greatly with some places only getting a few inches while a town over got 12. I don't think the differences would be that drastic here as there would be some snow from the front end hopefully, then with more of a surface feature this time compared to that event, and good easterly fetch, we could see a more widespread band of snow then that event. Either way it would be a cool feature to have happen over us for a chance. Its possible, just hanging on to whatever hope we have left. The night of the Lancaster event there was a strong line of snowshowers that produced about 3 inches of snow in Manchester. You should remember that. That was an odd system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It did, which is why I'm riding it That's our only real chance to get to warning criteria like you said. I highly doubt the NAM can nail this kind of feature, like Matt said, but if we can keep the GFS highlighting it and make it a bit stronger on the euro we may have a chance to not fail. I feel like I'm grasping here without hugging the NAM. Tough to do. Inverted troughs are commonplace here. But to get something special like depicted is rare.....no coastal involved but on 3/9/99, but we got a very localized heavy band that parked over us for hours from an inverted trough to our west.....totally unforecast....anyway...this event has certainly kept us busy....hopefully we have something to show for it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The night of the Lancaster event there was a strong line of snowshowers that produced about 3 inches of snow in Manchester. You should remember that. That was an odd system. I do remember we got some snow, but I was bummed about missing that 10" thundersnow band northeast of us then the couple inches we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 you are right, where exactly the heavy bands set up can't be predicted but the general idea might be right, and some chance is better then none. The lancaster thing was the same event. There were several bands and most of eastern PA got some snow from it but it varied greatly with some places only getting a few inches while a town over got 12. I don't think the differences would be that drastic here as there would be some snow from the front end hopefully, then with more of a surface feature this time compared to that event, and good easterly fetch, we could see a more widespread band of snow then that event. Either way it would be a cool feature to have happen over us for a chance. Its possible, just hanging on to whatever hope we have left. 6z NAM has piqued my interest enough to stick around for the 6z GFS...so much for sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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