Ji Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 SREF is pretty wet... Any reason to think gfs is wrong 18 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 ok... what we need is to find a good analog to this... because the ones being thrown around in all the threads, 1969, 78, 2005 just don't fit this at all...not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 SREF is pretty wet... hopefully that is a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 SREF is pretty wet... meh. Gave me 6" even up till the day of Boxing Day 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I dunno... unless I chase this, it could be even more painful than December 2010 The 2/6/10 storm dumped over a foot about 30 miles SW of me in Monmouth County, NJ and maybe an inch and a half at my house, and a big old T at Central Park. Philly recorded 23". Anywhere NE of there, obviously nothing. The idea is, DC has its type of storms that it cashes in on, and NYC to BOS has its type of storms. Unfortunately, you guys down by DC and Baltimore will likely get shafted by this upcoming storm. I moved to TX a week ago for a new job from Long Island and I'll have to watch this on the webcams too. Make sure to cackle a little more the next time a massive STJ-infused snowstorm hits DC to Philly and confluence renders nothing more than cirrus from NYC on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 and 12 hours later... the pattern fits those only everything is displaced about 200 miles south of where the H5 cut off and the slp developed in all of those storms. You would think that difference would have some impact. There are a few members of the GEFS and SREF that go absolutely nuts with the storm... everyone on here knows I am usually pessimistic, and I think its a long shot, but I still hold out hope the models are mishandling something in a very tricky setup here. At least that the euro is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 and 12 hours later... the pattern fits those only everything is displaced about 200 miles south of where the H5 cut off and the slp developed in all of those storms. You would think that difference would have some impact. There are a few members of the GEFS and SREF that go absolutely nuts with the storm... everyone on here knows I am usually pessimistic, and I think its a long shot, but I still hold out hope the models are mishandling something in a very tricky setup here. At least that the euro is.analog2.gif I guess there's no precise analog for any event, but it seems like a leap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Any reason to think gfs is wrong 18 hours out? GFS has done pretty well recently. Been impressed with the new parallel since its inception a couple weeks ago. It has been pretty consistent and I favor it over other solutions right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Come on, Yoda, 006, low in the NE corner of Missouri... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I guess the problem is the h5 low ends up in the same spot, over NYC it just gets there differently. This time it is digging further south but it hooks too far east before closing off again and bombing the low. In those past cases it cut across further north. Both scenarios seem to screw us over a bit, just in a different way. Same end result though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 and 12 hours later... the pattern fits those only everything is displaced about 200 miles south of where the H5 cut off and the slp developed in all of those storms. You would think that difference would have some impact. There are a few members of the GEFS and SREF that go absolutely nuts with the storm... everyone on here knows I am usually pessimistic, and I think its a long shot, but I still hold out hope the models are mishandling something in a very tricky setup here. At least that the euro is.analog2.gif The western ridge axis is great. The problem is that the transfer to the coastal is just alittle too far offshore and the northwestern expansion of the precip doesn't really get going until just north of our lattitude. Euro should have the best handle on this situation, so I am not too optomistic. We need a little Jan 2000 magic. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 15hr on the NAM looks juicy, low closed over Indiana/Kentucky border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 SREF definitely did not move towards the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 15hr is warm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I admit I am just effin jealous, but I absolutely HATE NYC and Boston. They get the BECS. Those snow lovers up there will fly around in sheer bliss for the next 24 hours in pure Heaven. They will get to shovel FEET of fresh snow that the winds will pile up so damn high they wont even be able to see out their SECOND FLOOR WINDOWS for krise sake! Let alone be able to get out their front door or even crawl out their 1st floor windows! All I ever get, is some damn pixie dust not even enough to shovel, hell it wasnt even enough to BROOM. My poor Jebman shovel never had a chance this "winter". damn I HATE where I live. i will die here. I will never get out The 2/6/10 storm dumped over a foot about 30 miles SW of me in Monmouth County, NJ and maybe an inch and a half at my house, and a big old T at Central Park. Philly recorded 23". Anywhere NE of there, obviously nothing. The idea is, DC has its type of storms that it cashes in on, and NYC to BOS has its type of storms. Unfortunately, you guys down by DC and Baltimore will likely get shafted by this upcoming storm. I moved to TX a week ago for a new job from Long Island and I'll have to watch this on the webcams too. Make sure to cackle a little more the next time a massive STJ-infused snowstorm hits DC to Philly and confluence renders nothing more than cirrus from NYC on north. Jeb, what did you get in that storm? I remember watching the radar for hours try to get snow into NYC but every attempt died in the confluence. There are times where we have pain up here too. But NYC and BOS are further north and by climo are supposed to get more snow. Heck, Boston has about 160% of NYC's average and cashes in on tons of its own events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Precipitation reaches DC metro area at hour 23, but temps are marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looks like snow in DC area around hr 26? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looks like SLP development at 1008 mb SE of OBX at 30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 eps_slp_lows_ma_10.png just trying to keep hope alive... A lot of those are way west of the op... and this find, CIPS analogs suggest we should do ok on snow...this is the 36 hour analogs, obviously the northeast part of the storm comes after this but who cares... and just as a curiosity, my storm shows up as an analog at 48 hours...hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM doesn't look much different from 0z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 just trying to keep hope alive... A lot of those are way west of the op... and this find, CIPS analogs suggest we should do ok on snow...this is the 36 hour analogs, obviously the northeast part of the storm comes after this but who cares... and just as a curiosity, my storm shows up as an analog at 48 hours...hmmm analogsnow2.png I wouldn't rule you out in this case... I'd just give you extreme odds. But I think it says something about the complexity of nature when what threatens to be a decadal storm for SNE was modeled as a clipper for the midatlantic 24 hours ago... So who knows! But if I had to bet my life savings, it would be on the Euro, not the CIPS analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That band on the 6z NAM from DC westward keeps sitting there. Not good for us east of DC it would seem I'd focus on track and not worry to much about bands... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Really sharp cutoff through DCA, or near it....vicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 2/6/10 storm dumped over a foot about 30 miles SW of me in Monmouth County, NJ and maybe an inch and a half at my house, and a big old T at Central Park. Philly recorded 23". Anywhere NE of there, obviously nothing. The idea is, DC has its type of storms that it cashes in on, and NYC to BOS has its type of storms. Unfortunately, you guys down by DC and Baltimore will likely get shafted by this upcoming storm. I moved to TX a week ago for a new job from Long Island and I'll have to watch this on the webcams too. Make sure to cackle a little more the next time a massive STJ-infused snowstorm hits DC to Philly and confluence renders nothing more than cirrus from NYC on north. Jeb, what did you get in that storm? I remember watching the radar for hours try to get snow into NYC but every attempt died in the confluence. There are times where we have pain up here too. But NYC and BOS are further north and by climo are supposed to get more snow. Heck, Boston has about 160% of NYC's average and cashes in on tons of its own events. I received 10 inches in that 2/6/10 storm. It was all wind whipped. I remember watching those radar returns form up right on top of us and thinking what on earth was going on then we got a BLIZZARD WARNING and I whooped one of the loudest whoops I have ever whooped in sheer ecstasy! LOL! North VA tend to get 4 inches in a typical January snowstorm. What is Philly's climo? What is NYC's climo? What is Boston's climo? How many inches do they get in a typical snowstorm that is climo for their locations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sneaky heavy band of snow across DC at hrs 42 through 51... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Interesting...it seems like the 6-8" inches of snow reach NW DC by hour 48...using IWM's maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Forget about what I said NAM 06z looking similar to NAM 0z...DC has like 8" by hour 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I received 10 inches in that 2/6/10 storm. It was all wind whipped. I remember watching those radar returns form up right on top of us and thinking what on earth was going on then we got a BLIZZARD WARNING and I whooped one of the loudest whoops I have ever whooped in sheer ecstasy! LOL! North VA tend to get 4 inches in a typical January snowstorm. What is Philly's climo? What is NYC's climo? What is Boston's climo? How many inches do they get in a typical snowstorm that is climo for their locations? Depends on the January snowstorm...lol NYC's climo is 28" per winter. BOS is 42-43" and Philly is 22-23". DC is maybe about 18-20"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 More snow in DC than NYC per the NAM. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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