Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm surprised at the disappointment, this is unfolding as expected for a Miller b. huh?..this event has shown some potential for a while now, and some of the runs have been good for us over the last several days, including the GFS like 3 hours ago....Even Wes and others have been bullish on the general period, and this specific threat, which looked good because of the general 500mb vort passage...as recently as 24-36 hours ago, it looked like a cold storm with an organized low that would have the potential to drop 3-4"+ here.... And you march in here on your high horse having not tracked this thing at all, and act surprised we are disappointed it might not work out well (not a lock by the way)? This 40N blizzard didn't materialize until last night's euro...We don't need a lecture on how miller B's unfold...we know...and they are all different and have their own identities and we do ok in some of them. Nobody was/is expecting a huge event from this...nothing worse than 40N transplants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 1st guess map holding 0z euro says I have too much snow in dca 1STG0zgfs.jpg However,, this was almost spot on with the GFS... do you trust Euro or GFS more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 1st guess map holding 0z euro says I have too much snow in dca 1STG0zgfs.jpg I can almost guarantee you the cutoff will be MUCH sharper than what you're depicting. That 6-12 you're showing for Baltimore, change it to centimeters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Its not .3, its about .18 qpf at DCA on the euro total and its above freezing during all of it. Even up here its about .3 over 48 hours with marginal temps. Its a disaster run, no way to sugar coat it. Coastal takes over just fast enough to kill the primary for us, but not fast enough to help anyone west of Wilmington DE. No way to spin this...other then to say the Euro is all by itself and hopefully wrong. GFS/NAM/GGEM/SREF all give us pretty good qpf with the primary low. I think we have to separate the two systems and honestly the trend today has been east on the coastal precip. I had hoped for a west trend after this mornings runs but I think at this point hope that we get help from wrap around is slim or none. We need the primary to remain organized or we are in trouble. Not sure why the storm ends up so far east though with an H5 track that digs down to the gulf like that though....that is a little weird to me. which I corrected THREE times.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 MILLER b #1 rule someone will always get screwed with the lack of snow ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 smh why post this in here. Now. it's obvious why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 didnt say I was holding with that .. just that in GENERAL the 1st Guess is looking good Euro gave me 3" tops and you are holding with 6-12 for me? Ballsy DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 MILLER b #1 rule someone will always get screwed with the lack of snow ... Really? Please tell me more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 it's obvious why? Yes it is and it's uncalled for. Ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Whoever is able to travel and Chase and dosent is a moron cool...what time are we leaving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 didnt say I was holding with that .. just that in GENERAL the 1st Guess is looking good You said "holding". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 didnt say I was holding with that .. just that in GENERAL the 1st Guess is looking good How in general is your first guess looking good when you put me in the 6-12" area, and i will be lucky to get 3". If Wes had put out that map you would be cursing him out. You are turning into JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 i will use the NAM withing 24 hrs sometimes 36... and the GFS is OK at this range but history of east coast snowstorms is filled with clear cases of the ecmwf kicking butt and talking namesthe consistency here is amazing COULD dca get into the say 2-4" snow which isnt far away? sure COULD bwi get closer to 10" or 8"? sure But I am not leaning that way.... I guess living in central VA I am use to bitter disappointment so this sort of ... "so close to the big snow" ... doesnt bother me However,, this was almost spot on with the GFS... do you trust Euro or GFS more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Damn right. It's not like this was a screw job for the entire week and we were tracking nonsense. Just 24 hours ago this looked like a decent light to mod event here with some upside until it got complicated and convoluted today and turned into a **possible** screw job. Even the last GFS was solid. No one in here was asking for a HECS or should have been expecting enough of a shift for one, but a low end warning was certainly on the table if things broke right. You can't fault people for wanting something, especially with Philly north poised to get an all timer. All that said, maybe the GFS will score a coup again or one of the many factors impacting how we end up doing break in our favor. The chips are on the table, you don't toss them down unless you are prepared to lose. This is what 40N transplants do...they march in here without having any knowledge of our climo, no clue about the dynamic of the forum, and no context on how the threat has evolved, and then tell us how to feel.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah...everything jumped east despite the H5 setup. Did some of the NW side get robbed by where we're seeing 30"+ amounts? yea euro didnt really go east, it just tightened up the west side of the low (shock right) and so for places Philly east it actually increased qpf but totally cut off everyone to the west. I didn't get all the excitement over the 12z euro, I really didn't like what it was showing then because being on the sw EDGE of a developing miller b bomb usually seems like a losing lottery ticket to me. This change is hardly surprising to me. All the globals now agree on where the coastal precip will be actually, the difference is the GGEM and GFS hold more precip together from the primary for us. Have to hope they win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 huh?..this event has shown some potential for a while now, and some of the runs have been good for us over the last several days, including the GFS like 3 hours ago....Even Wes and others have been bullish on the general period, and this specific threat, which looked good because of the general 500mb vort passage...as recently as 24-36 hours ago, it looked like a cold storm with an organized low that would have the potential to drop 3-4"+ here.... And you march in here on your high horse having not tracked this thing at all, and act surprised we are disappointed it might not work out well (not a lock by the way)? This 40N blizzard didn't materialize until last night's euro...We don't need a lecture on how miller B's unfold...we know...and they are all different and have their own identities and we do ok in some of them. Nobody was/is expecting a huge event from this...nothing worse than 40N transplants I've tracked it from the start, once this trended from a clipper with a kicker behind it to a Miller B that phases with the kicker we all knew the typical climo script where sne jacks and the mid Atlantic gets the shaft when the moisture transfers to the coastal.I grew up in Maryland and moved to Boston for 12 years then back just this past summer so I have a fair idea about climo for both regions. Just because I tend to follow on the sidelines doesn't mean I wasn't following. Fwiw 0z American Models delivered a lot of the qpf from a renegade inverted trough which is obviously not a feature to rely on. I'm still hoping we get a decent event which to would be 2-4" but like I said this thing trended into a Miller B and like Bob has been saying that's a very bad omen for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 which I corrected THREE times.. I typed that and posted before I saw your correction, didnt feel like going back and editing, Besides I wasnt trying to criticize, I know the lower resolution maps are harder sometimes to pinpoint qpf. I know we are all a little testy right now, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Please shut up and die you weenie as$hole its was an off the cuff comment ... and where did I say there would NOT be any changes ? DT... this behavior is completely unprofessional and uncalled for. Please do us all a favor and cut it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Jb is now On tHe way to nailing this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 When I saw the models really starting to dig yesterday. I had a feeling we could be in trouble. I still think we all get a couple of inches out of this. I am just gonna try to enjoy that and stay out of the ne forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 yea euro didnt really go east, it just tightened up the west side of the low (shock right) and so for places Philly east it actually increased qpf but totally cut off everyone to the west. I didn't get all the excitement over the 12z euro, I really didn't like what it was showing then because being on the sw EDGE of a developing miller b bomb usually seems like a losing lottery ticket to me. This change is hardly surprising to me. All the globals now agree on where the coastal precip will be actually, the difference is the GGEM and GFS hold more precip together from the primary for us. Have to hope they win out. I made a post earlier that if we want to be safely in the deform band good precip has to reach west of Frederick. Western edges almost never work out. Last Sunday we barely got a drop of rain right on the western edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Jb is now On tHe way to nailing this winter Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I can survive sne getting a blizzard. But poor snow towns like phl and nyc is suicidal for me One of your best posts ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I've tracked it from the start, once this trended from a clipper with a kicker behind it to a Miller B that phases with the kicker we all knew the typical climo script where sne jacks and the mid Atlantic gets the shaft when the moisture transfers to the coastal. I grew up in Maryland and moved to Boston for 12 years then back just this past summer so I have a fair idea about climo for both regions. Just because I tend to follow on the sidelines doesn't mean I wasn't following. Fwiw 0z American Models delivered a lot of the qpf from a renegade inverted trough which is obviously not a feature to rely on. I'm still hoping we get a decent event which to would be 2-4" but like I said this thing trended into a Miller B and like Bob has been saying that's a very bad omen for us. this happened 24 hours ago.....nobody is ever surprised when we get screwed here....but we still get disappointed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Jb is now On tHe way to nailing this winter In his video today he said what happens the rest of this winter we will remember the rest of our lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 this happened 24 hours ago.....nobody is ever surprised when we get screwed here....but we still get disappointed... Because we try to hope beyong hope that the storm won't miss us and that the models are wrong and we will get crushed. Reality is the opposite of that fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 In his video today he said what happens the rest of this winter we will remember the rest of our lives.true I wont forget this disaster for as long as I live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I typed that and posted before I saw your correction, didnt feel like going back and editing, Besides I wasnt trying to criticize, I know the lower resolution maps are harder sometimes to pinpoint qpf. I know we are all a little testy right now, sorry. no worries...I have better subscription maps, which showed the 0.18.....but SV is easier to use and faster so I usually use that....Usually WB is wetter than SV...not sure what the issue is right now and if it will get resolved...it is lower resolution and usually drier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hopefully the 03z SREFs give us some crumbs in the next 20 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 this happened 24 hours ago.....nobody is ever surprised when we get screwed here....but we still get disappointed... Fair enough, didn't mean to rub salt in wounds. Apologies if that's how it came across... I still think 2-4" is doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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