AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I guess I am confused. Why is this Euro run deemed "bad"? We went from 0.6" QPF to 0.3" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 that model is carp it goes from .1-.15 2 and 3 runs ago, to .5+ last run and now maybe .3 please, no one ever tell me how great the euro is.... looking at better maps, I think it is actually more like 0.20" for me...maybe even less....meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I guess I am confused. Why is this Euro run deemed "bad"? Probably because many were hoping it would continue to trend better or further SW... I doubted it all along and it was a faint hope. Not surprised it shifted a bit east. Time to come to terms with Philly north getting crushed while we get mangled flakes or a few inches at best. But we may have more chances in the near future so no need to lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Terrible run. Not much qpf on front end where nam and gfs much wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 looking at better maps, I think it is actually more like 0.20" for me...maybe even less....meh Damn and Philly is 1.8", i am going to kill someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 looking at better maps, I think it is actually more like 0.20" for me...maybe even less....meh seems to have suddenly become another 40N winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Track seemed fine. Perhaps underdoing the QPF. If the aim is 3-4", I think we'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 sounds like the models are locking into the idea of a light event for us. the impression i'm getting is this setup is just a bit too far north/east for the dc crew (for a sizable event), but maybe tomorrow it trends a little better towards gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Damn and Philly is 1.8", i am going to kill someone. ughh, please tell me you're kidding that is the cut off from hell if that's the way it plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Might be time to sleep on it and gather a chase party in the morning. I might be going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Disgusting run. .27 over a 30 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm surprised at the disappointment, this is unfolding as expected for a Miller b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 ughh, please tell me you're kidding that is the cut off from hell if that's the way it plays out These are the type of storms I can't take. If it plays out that way this winter is ruined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm surprised at the disappointment, this is unfolding as expected for a Miller b. I think seeing amazing totals for Philly and NYC gives this an extra sting... a Miller B that primarily hits SNE wouldn't be as upsetting since it's so distant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NYC thread Posted a snowfall map. I'll spare you from jumping off a cliff. DT may have been right about the stupid dry pocket in SRN VA ruining our snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think seeing amazing totals for Philly and NYC gives this an extra sting... a Miller B that primarily hits SNE wouldn't be as upsetting since it's so distant. Exactly. Being the western most cities have no benefit for late developing coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 18" for Philly and 30" for NYC on the EuroWX maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 30 iNches in nyc NORTH nj 15" IN ,ower md eastern shore 1" in DCA 6" in BAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That was awful. So close but so far away. It looked like a better run with a dig further south and the low seemed a tiny bit closer to the coast, but the heaviest precip seemed to shift about 20 miles northeast from the last run. We need a big shift southwest at 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 These are the type of storms I can't take. If it plays out that way this winter is ruined. Not necessarily... winter doesn't end with this storm. Boxing day 2010 was just as bad of a screwjob but the MECS that happened a month later definitely saved that winter for the N/W burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 1st guess map holding 0z euro says I have too much snow in dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Its not .3, its about .18 qpf at DCA on the euro total and its above freezing during all of it. Even up here its about .3 over 48 hours with marginal temps. Its a disaster run, no way to sugar coat it. Coastal takes over just fast enough to kill the primary for us, but not fast enough to help anyone west of Wilmington DE. No way to spin this...other then to say the Euro is all by itself and hopefully wrong. GFS/NAM/GGEM/SREF all give us pretty good qpf with the primary low. I think we have to separate the two systems and honestly the trend today has been east on the coastal precip. I had hoped for a west trend after this mornings runs but I think at this point hope that we get help from wrap around is slim or none. We need the primary to remain organized or we are in trouble. Not sure why the storm ends up so far east though with an H5 track that digs down to the gulf like that though....that is a little weird to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 30 iNches in nyc NORTH nj 15" IN ,ower md eastern shore 1" in DCA 6" in BAL BIG0zeurJAN25.jpg That 6" line is NE of Balt I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 1st guess map holding 0z euro says I have too much snow in dca 1STG0zgfs.jpg Euro gave me 3" tops and you are holding with 6-12 for me? Ballsy DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 30 iNches in nyc NORTH nj 15" IN ,ower md eastern shore 1" in DCA 6" in BAL BIG0zeurJAN25.jpg smh why post this in here. Now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 lol 12" for here per that map. Quite a gradient. I fully expect that to shift east in future runs. I never do that well in these set ups. I will be happy with 3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 30 iNches in nyc NORTH nj 15" IN ,ower md eastern shore 1" in DCA 6" in BAL BIG0zeurJAN25.jpg the closer to the event the more disappointing it gets for this area, welcome to cmd winter, hasn't changed in 66 years, wont change in 100 more,. Boxer day storm just keeps repeating. Until this is absorbed, learned your going to be miserable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Was kinda expecting this run after the earlier runs today. Typical miller b screwjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 smh why post this in here. Now. And he is not even right. It is 3" in Baltimore not 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Its not .3, its about .18 qpf at DCA on the euro total and its above freezing during all of it. Even up here its about .3 over 48 hours with marginal temps. Its a disaster run, no way to sugar coat it. Coastal takes over just fast enough to kill the primary for us, but not fast enough to help anyone west of Wilmington DE. No way to spin this...other then to say the Euro is all by itself and hopefully wrong. GFS/NAM/GGEM/SREF all give us pretty good qpf with the primary low. I think we have to separate the two systems and honestly the trend today has been east on the coastal precip. I had hoped for a west trend after this mornings runs but I think at this point hope that we get help from wrap around is slim or none. We need the primary to remain organized or we are in trouble. Not sure why the storm ends up so far east though with an H5 track that digs down to the gulf like that though....that is a little weird to me. Yeah...everything jumped east despite the H5 setup. Did some of the NW side get robbed by where we're seeing 30"+ amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.