mitchnick Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 After all of this tracking maybe we can end up getting nothing at all. it always has been a distinct possibility with the odds increasing with each model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM is awful for Baltimore area and not too good for Philly either. Throws a bone to Leesburg with the norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 No, He was right. Its snow up here from 9z on. But temps are definitely an issue ok, good luck with that. winchester is practically part of WV anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Bye all.Bye. Nice try. Of course, I know that you really meant to start this thread in the New England forum. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 snow into NE NOVA, and IAD and DC by h30, but getting far out for NAM land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Goofy NAM drops a band back into the area beginning at 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Too much time invested in tracking this POS storm to fully give up. Holding out hope to see white on grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That coastal is close enough to throw some snow back on us tomorrow night. Just wish that double-barreled HP to the north would drift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Glad I'm not in Philly on this NAM run. We know we're getting screwed - for them it's still up in the air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hokiehop Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC900 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015MDZ006-011-507-508-261000-/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.150126T0300Z-150126T2300Z//O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.150126T2300Z-150127T2300Z/NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PARKTON...REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE...DUNDALK...CATONSVILLE...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN900 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM ESTMONDAY......WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENINGTHROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGHMONDAY... WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE MONDAYNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGHTUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR BETWEEN EARLY MONDAYMORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOWPOSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH MONDAYNIGHT AND TUESDAY.* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY WITHVISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO NEAR ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.THE COMBINATION OF SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILLMAKE TRAVELING DANGEROUS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOWWILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 900 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 MDZ006-011-507-508-261000- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.150126T0300Z-150126T2300Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.150126T2300Z-150127T2300Z/ NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-NORTHWEST HARFORD- SOUTHEAST HARFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PARKTON...REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE... BALTIMORE...DUNDALK...CATONSVILLE...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN 900 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR BETWEEN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY WITH VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO NEAR ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL MAKE TRAVELING DANGEROUS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. 5-10"? whoa... I only wish I could believe that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Latest HRRR has a fairly quick changeover tomorrow morning. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fhrrr%2F01%2Fhrrr_east-us_01115_precip_type.gif&model=hrrr&area=east-us&storm=&cycle=01¶m=precip_type&fhr=01115&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=area&use_mins=yes&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150126+01+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nam looks fine to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Deep weenie thoughts here.....wonder if there's some thinking that actual precip will be more expansive across the area rather than the hole that's been showing up between the blue ridge and NE MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nam looks fine to me even if I told you that around .15" of the qpf falls as rain or white rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Doesnt look very historic in NYC. Nam looks fine to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Deep weenie thoughts here.....wonder if there's some thinking that actual precip will be more expansive across the area rather than the hole that's been showing up between the blue ridge and NE MD. If I understand what you are saying then the HRRR likes your train of thought. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 RGEM was pretty good last couple runs, with 18z respectible so let's see see what it says since it is better than the nam.....which ain't sayin' much I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Didn't realize how much the NAM screws NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nam looks fine to me even if I told you that around .15" of the qpf falls as rain or white rain? ahh, you meant for NY yeah it does, but no where near as nice as prior runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Didn't realize how much the NAM screws NYC poor them. They only get 10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Didn't realize how much the NAM screws NYC we've just got to work on NE now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 poor them. They only get 10 inches dude, they went from 20-25" to 10" you'd be insufferable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 dude, they went from 20-25" to 10" you'd be insufferable +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 dude, they went from 20-25" to 10" you'd be insufferable He'd be apoplectic. I like how he's trying to be all reasonable now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 900 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 MDZ006-011-507-508-261000- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.150126T0300Z-150126T2300Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.150126T2300Z-150127T2300Z/ NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-NORTHWEST HARFORD- SOUTHEAST HARFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PARKTON...REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE... BALTIMORE...DUNDALK...CATONSVILLE...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN 900 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. It's really hard to reconcile that statement with this map. Maybe they're putting more faith in the 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If we were set for two feet and at gametime any model dropped us to 10 inches, I would lose it I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 RGEM was pretty good last couple runs, with 18z respectible so let's see see what it says since it is better than the nam.....which ain't sayin' much I know. Lol. Nothing worse than the NAM. Yet we still look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Latest HRRR has a fairly quick changeover tomorrow morning. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fhrrr%2F01%2Fhrrr_east-us_01115_precip_type.gif&model=hrrr&area=east-us&storm=&cycle=01¶m=precip_type&fhr=01115&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=area&use_mins=yes&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150126+01+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Umm maybe I'm missing something, but that looks like we get hour after hour of really good snow? It looks like we get buried? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 its mostly very light. Umm maybe I'm missing something, but that looks like we get hour after hour of really good snow? It looks like we get buried? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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