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1/25-1/27 Mauler Thread #2


DDweatherman

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Sorry for my previous comment, it's the MA, we always have to worry about temps and precip. Good news is at least we learn how to forecast. There's a reason Blizz can't forecast his way out of paper bag, because every low that track over the Benchmark is a perfect setup for him.

There's some accumulating snow for everyone at least on the GFS accept Richmond but I don't count them.

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These models suck...DTK can defend them all he wants, but they cant even remotely get something right 24 hours out. I understand its a difficult pattern with northern stream dominate systems, and pieces of energy off the PAC NW with lack of data issues, but all the players are on the field now and the models still suck..Wheres Albert Einstein when you need him, we need a serious math person for the models...rant over.

Nothing wrong with the models. They're all simulations. Your expectations of a precise unchanging run of simulations is the problem. The variables, inputs, data change and evolve, therefore the model output changes.

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Euro predictions? I'm going to go with complete DC fail....0.04" falling at 34-36 degrees and then no help from the coastal

 

no way i'm staying up for it after last night. 

 

i predict you will make one post like this:

 

:o

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This is one of those times we need WinterWxLuvr to remind us we just want to see as much precip shown as possible.

At this point the temperatures aren't as important... Lock in s good track then worry about the temps later

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What am I missing? It was always going to be mild tomorrow, and any precip tomorrow night, at least early on, was going to be mixy. This has been looking more and more like a Monday into Monday night deal. It will be snow by then. Biggest question still is how much precip will fall and where with the developing coastal.

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I've only used the :o emoticon twice this season, and you called me out the 1st time...so I am being overly prudent ;)

I almost called you out on the second too but it had been a few hours since you posted it so I held off.

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Luckily I'm very well prepared mentally. So us won't include me this time assuming soul genocide takes place. 

 

If we get hit solid then I'll claim first to call it though. I posted all about how it was going to happen when the board was down. 

I'm already mentally checked out of this one.  I don't feel the sense of giddiness that is normally felt before a good one.  Too much angst...i mean, angst is normal with us, but this one is all over the place.   All I want is 1 to 3....that's the bar now.

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