clueless Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Models never do well with fast progressive flow and tightly spaced shortwaves and they won't for years to come. True. And you can't say that it is a lock that PHL and NYC will get clocked. Yeah. Good snow but maybe not so epic. Who knows. This has been a frustrating few days. But you nailed it Bob, a few days ago. We lose moisture on the front end and then, on the back, maybe get thrown a few scraps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 looks like Euro has done the best with precip per maps and ground truth thru 7PM gfs and nam, naso much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Models never do well with fast progressive flow and tightly spaced shortwaves and they won't for years to come. And that's pretty sad. This whole season has been a loss as far as the models have been concerned. Overall they have performed poorly. A few bright spots do not erase the lousy forecasting, the always "10 days away", the 24 hour forecast that changes 180 degrees in 12 hours. But to stay on topic, do we get wrap around love in 24 hours? We know historically we do poorly in these situations and yet we hug the models that show it. While not out of the question (the models do show realistic scenarios) it is not likely. I hope for the 1 to 2 inches tomorrow evening when the temps are forecast to drop low enough for stickage, but know in my heart this is a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I got bad news. It's raining at 1000 ft 5 miles south of the pa line right now. We have a looooong way to go I gave up earlier today. Yesterday when things started to shift I thought we were still good, but I've basically checked out now. Acceptance stage and all that. Little bit of anger, too. I'm not going to say that I hope you guys do well, but I'm not going to root against you (I don't think). Whatever. Onto the next scroogie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I wish we could just get the old solution back: A nice straightforward alberta clipper that gives us a couple inches of snow. Thats all I ever wanted. But what we do get is another soaker overnight and then we beg for scraps on Monday and Monday night. My back yard is a quagmire. It collects water so easily. Tonight's rainfall will only add insult to injury. I'm a pretty good beggar, I live on the tropical fall line, I've been beggin' for snow here for 40 years. Maybe if I beg and grovel and scrape long enough and hard enough, I can manage a cartop coating of slop by Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Models never do well with fast progressive flow and tightly spaced shortwaves and they won't for years to come. For winter 2015 you can stop after word 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 HRRR wants to keep many of us as dry as it can get us. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_ncep_jet:&runTime=2015012523&plotName=1ref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 HRRR wants to keep many of us as dry as it can get us. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_ncep_jet:&runTime=2015012523&plotName=1ref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3 You can see the precip shut off over us as the coastal gets going in the last few frames (the precip really blossoms offshore). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You can see the precip shut off over us as the coastal gets going in the last few frames (the precip really blossoms offshore). I wonder if this would allow the coastal to develop closer to the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You can see the precip shut off over us as the coastal gets going in the last few frames (the precip really blossoms offshore). 0z wants to suck us back in, crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Check the banter threads for banter. Or, even better, post banter there first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 yep, but we're only missing epic blocking this time DC is only a snow town with a -NAO/AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You guys North of Baltimore should like the current SREF run. It gets you into a decent band on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 DC is only a snow town with a -NAO/AO. Yes. We haven't gotten a good snowy winter with a +AO/NAO since 2013-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM looks juiced with round 1, though a lot of it probably is liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM looks juiced with round 1, though a lot of it probably is liquid Def is through 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yes. We haven't gotten a good snowy winter with a +AO/NAO since 2013-14 2013-14 = maximizing on a so-so pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM looks juiced with round 1, though a lot of it probably is liquid nam qpf for hrs ending 1am and 7am at BWI are identical to 12z euro: .01 and .02 respectively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM looks juiced with round 1, though a lot of it probably is liquid The big area of 0.25"+ in VA through 14z is probably all rain except for maybe up near Winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM looks juiced with round 1, though a lot of it probably is liquid Def is through 15 At 15h much more robust band through virginia and a little less precip offshore. Maybe a little more favorable handling of the transfer for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The big area of 0.25"+ in VA through 14z is probably all rain except for maybe up near Winchester. no snow at all in VA thru h16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 We can't wish cast this one back. She's DOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 DC looks to be totally skunked on the 00Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 nam is just hope crushing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Bye all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 DC looks to be totally skunked on the 00Z NAM. apg is .09" and dca is .14" thru 18 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Monday afternoon we have a 1001 mb Low more off the coast from 18Z NAM or a 1002 mb Low closer to coast and slightly warmer from 0Z NAM, take your pick 18Z: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_024_10m_wnd_precip.gif 0Z: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_018_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 no snow at all in VA thru h16 No, He was right. Its snow up here from 9z on. But temps are definitely an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 apg is .09" and dca is .14" thru 18 hrs After all of this tracking maybe we can end up getting nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 And, Nelson county added to Advisory?? Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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