WEATHER53 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Does anyone have any thoughts on how much slower the "clipper" moved today compared to this morning's guidance? It looks like it's still back in western KY. Appears to be the only sign of what might save us is it's showing a tendency to want to flop over negative already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Wow, Boxing Day Storm redux. So, what threat is next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hopefully the website is starting to speed up now. It really is hard to believe that at short range we went from a MA cold powder special to a SNE HECS where we probably get shafted. I don't think I can look at Miller Bs the same anymore. I didn't know this is what they did to y'all when I was in NE. I used to think the "B" in Miller B stood for "bust" as far as VA is concerned. They almost never deliver here, even for the northern reaches of the DMV. The evolution of this storm reminds me plenty of 12.30.2000, although I was never invested in this one as much. But the memory of that storm, in the era before these forums really existed, is probably why it was hard to buy the modeled depictions from the past 48 hours as they never ever seem to work out in practice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 With the primary situation and that dying, I am going down with the ship on this one for my CMD/Bay area forecast totals. If you were my readership, would you prefer me take a stand and go for it the way I have been in my first call/second call...OR would you prefer me saying, you know what, I think I took the wrong angle, we're not getting much. I do like mitch's insight regarding the primary, and the trough may really actually go negative quicker. The low back there is progressing awfully slow, so those are good signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I used to think the "B" in Miller B stood for "bust" as far as VA is concerned. They almost never deliver here, even for the northern reaches of the DMV. The evolution of this storm reminds me plenty of 12.30.2000, although I was never invested in this one as much. But the memory of that storm, in the era before these forums really existed, is probably why it was hard to buy the modeled depictions from the past 48 hours as they never ever seem to work out in practice. I agree. People are mentioning northeastern Maryland a lot but trust me these setups never workout here either. Granted i have a slightly better chance of seeing accumulating snow than folks to the south but that being said ive seen complete whiffs many times. I have no faith in getting much more than a dusting to an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 We are not getting screwed because it's a miller B. January 1996 and February 2010 we're Miller Bs. They work fine for us as long as the primary is a juicy low coming out of the gulf coast states and not a moisture starved clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I agree. People are mentioning northeastern Maryland a lot but trust me these setups never workout here either. Granted i have a slightly better chance of seeing accumulating snow than folks to the south but that being said ive seen complete whiffs many times. I have no faith in getting much more than a dusting to an inch or two. I wouldn't say never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 We are not getting screwed because it's a miller B. January 1996 and February 2010 we're Miller Bs. They work fine for us as long as the primary is a juicy low coming out of the gulf coast states and not a moisture starved clipper. Feb 10th, 2010 was a Miller B that started as a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 We are not getting screwed because it's a miller B. January 1996 and February 2010 we're Miller Bs. They work fine for us as long as the primary is a juicy low coming out of the gulf coast states and not a moisture starved clipper. This is the kind of miller B that comes from a clipper which I agree with. The other screwjob miller b's are lows that develop too late off an OV primary or apps runner, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I wouldn't say never Your correct, rarely wouldve been a better word to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 We are not getting screwed because it's a miller B. January 1996 and February 2010 we're Miller Bs. They work fine for us as long as the primary is a juicy low coming out of the gulf coast states and not a moisture starved clipper. 2 in the last 19 years doesn't really make me feel all warm and fuzzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Feb 10th, 2010 was a Miller B that started as a clipper. yep, but we're only missing epic blocking this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's becoming pretty clear that "round 1" will suck IMBY. Maybe some intermittent light rain/snow that coats the grass and cartops. All hope resides with "part 2" Monday afternoon and beyond and I am hardly confident about that. Though we will certainly have better temps to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 22z RAP h5 at hr 18 is negatively tilted, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 2 in the last 19 years doesn't really make me feel all warm and fuzzy. Agreed. And the blocking with 2010 was something we may never see again. Miller B's routinely suck period. Haha. i guess I should have read your next post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 22z RAP h5 at hr 18 is negatively tilted, right? Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Too bad... this subforum isn't just the immediate DC metro. Deal with it. agreed. Parts of Maryland will do well. DC and west not so much..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Wow, Boxing Day Storm redux. So, what threat is next?This might be the death knell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This might be the death knell Nope not a chance. Not going down like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This might be the death knell You had to be feeling similarly on 1.30.2010 if you are being honest. And, unbeknownst at the time..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Link? 23z RAP came out, so I am using that RAP run at 17 hrs: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=017ℑ=data%2Frap%2F23%2Frap_namer_017_500_vort_ht.gif&model=rap&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150125+23+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 RAP looks to turn trough negative at about 16 hours. Pretty juicy precipitation on the radar and a little farther south than depicted on models, maybe tapping some gulf moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Just fwiw, GEFS mean is nice for us. I know we shouldn't be using them at this close range, but 18z GEFS mean is supported by the 12z GEFS mean ETA: 18z ensemble members continue to insist on our area having snow Mon night with the CCB/inverted trough/banding from coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 23z RAP came out, so I am using that RAP run at 17 hrs: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=017ℑ=data%2Frap%2F23%2Frap_namer_017_500_vort_ht.gif&model=rap&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150125+23+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area A tiny beginning to negative tilt in that image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks like the HRRR has DC switching to snow at 7am. Yeah, I buy that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This is the kind of miller B that comes from a clipper which I agree with. The other screwjob miller b's are lows that develop too late off an OV primary or apps runner, etc. 2 in the last 19 years doesn't really make me feel all warm and fuzzy. Okay. It's obvious we don't do good with Miller B's, no matter where they originate. The original low shuts off before we get a front end thump and the bombing low gets going too far north to give us any lovin'. Understood. And I understand we are in a pattern with no blocking. What I don't understand is why the models of the 21st century have been so bad at modeling all of this crazy, fast flowing data. We should be able to come close to what is going to happen within 24 hours and this time the models (plural) have been weak with good information. Even when changes in the forecast are forthcoming, they only hint at what is going to happen or they take wild swings, all within 24 to 36 hours. This winter has been crazy and I realize some of it is because there are so many moving parts in a fast, progressive flow. But this storm highlights a lot of issues with our state of the art models. Long range inaccuracies are understood, but the swings at close range are harder to fathom. Any one with a few good reasons besides chaos? Okay. No more ranting. Sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I got bad news. It's raining at 1000 ft 5 miles south of the pa line right now. We have a looooong way to go Maybe the HRRR's all snow at 7AM for DCA is too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Any one with a few good reasons besides chaos? Okay. No more ranting. Sigh... Models never do well with fast progressive flow and tightly spaced shortwaves and they won't for years to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Maybe the HRRR's all snow at 7AM for DCA is too early. It's awesome that the precip just collapses around the Beltway right after it appears to switch over. Thanks, coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You had to be feeling similarly on 1.30.2010 if you are being honest. And, unbeknownst at the time..... That storm was locked up as something by the night prior and we already had seen the hand of winter. I love clippers but our seasonal trend is not a good one at this pt. Yeah not the worst ever but this hurts the optimism meter a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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