Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 We've been off the rails for a while now. Some just liked to note that the train was still upright. I just can't give up now for some reason even though everything tells me I should. HRRR still likes a good batch pre dawn.. tho temps are torchy till precip takes over. I even clicked to look at the RGEM graphics not revamped since 1934. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM snowfall 18z http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015012518&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=228 p.s. why an upgrade yesterday and today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sref were a punch in the gut. Last run was great. Mean qpf went from .65 to .2 at Westminster. They are a useless tool really. Seem to have major shifts even inside 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Seeing the 40N NWS discussions, with the tears running down my cheeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 idk, I think the fact that this thing has slowed will give that northern energy a better chance to catch up.....in time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 me likey gfs so far vs. 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GFS has snow down into Richmond. New? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Eh.....every run has a different variation of a screw job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looks like 20z RAP h5 at 18 hrs is neg tilt? As in slightly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Where is DT... He just got blued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looks like DCA is 0.5 to 0.6 QPF on 18z GFS... hope we dont lose more than .1 QPF to rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Someone is getting some backdoor love.. I don't know who.. That reach around stuff has been on almost every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think that area between VA and PHL on the gfs would get filled up and more uniform over future runs this ain't over until I say it's over, d@mnit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM is consistent run to run -- a slight trend colder and drier. DC ends up on the cold side of the rain / snow line for more of the event in the latest run. HRRR has shifted closer to NAM / Euro, showing the initial precip tonight holding north of DC. I'm expecting 3-5" and some good snow TV around here. Although we won't get the historic event Boston and/or NYC will get, it's still fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hmmmm... so hrs 30-36... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Seeing the 40N NWS discussions, with the tears running down my cheeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 HRRRRRRRRR sim radar at 11z tomorrow shows pretty decent batch coming in from W/SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The GFS and NAM lowered my hopes but I have to think the GFS would be dumping better precip over the area considering the surface look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hmmmm... so hrs 30-36... Hell yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Marty bass just went big 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 My goal now is just to get out of work tomorrow. I mean, that's what I'm down to: DC Gov't closed. A delay would be acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 How can you not lol and cry all at once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 My goal is to find some sort of enjoyment out of the event. I knew it would be bad yesterday but if it ends up rain to not a single sticking flake I'll be pissed. Staring at completely brown and wet grass while a historic blizzard is taking place within a half day drive just won't sit right. I can squint and pretend 1" is 1' at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I just want OPM to freak out like the school districts always do and close. That's almost certainly asking too much right now. It feels like we need a miracle lol. I don't think OPM will close or anything special. The OPM regime under the current director has been very conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hmmmm... so hrs 30-36... GFS has really been honking someone near DC getting under some bands on the backside. My interest shifted from overnight tonight to tomorrow night/overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krasnyoktyabr Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 HRRRRRRRRR sim radar at 11z tomorrow shows pretty decent batch coming in from W/SW I was just excited about the same thing, but HRRR hasn't been great with the clippers or timing so far this winter. On the positive side, the 850 temps never drop below freezing from NOVA north and the surface temps are crashing towards freezing from 12-16 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 For now I expect to be going to work in moderate non sticking wet snow.. and that will probably be the peak of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Temp not dropping again. Don't know why it takes a cold-front 18hrs to get from Elmira NY to WIlliamsport, PA, but it always seems to no matter what models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 My goal is to find some sort of enjoyment out of the event. I knew it would be bad yesterday but if it ends up rain to not a single sticking flake I'll be pissed. Staring at completely brown and wet grass while a historic blizzard is taking place within a half day drive just won't sit right. I can squint and pretend 1" is 1' at least. Half day drive....speed up grandma....king bed six pillows and free breakfast...come on up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 My point and click just went up to 6-9. I really dont know what they are looking at with those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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