mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 tombo at other website http://www.phillywx.com/index.php?/topic/269-snow-threat-sunday-125-monday-12615/?p=11067 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 My old home in NW CT is in the 30" zone on this Euro.. Just about perfect run for there. Meh. This is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 tombo at other website http://www.phillywx.com/index.php?/topic/269-snow-threat-sunday-125-monday-12615/?p=11067 17z RAP h5 at 18 hrs is neutral, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 09z SREFs Plume mean was 4.2" at DCA My concern is there is no one 6hr period with good rates, and H5 is looking a little dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 there is no way that primary is going over us or to the north... It's exactly where it should be right now. Yup.. Its digging in good. Fattening up for the kill. We got this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 17z RAP h5 at 18 hrs is neutral, right? yes, but if you look at the prior hours on a loop you can see it's almost negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro is worst case for out here. Majority of the front end thump misses north. Then we miss the coastal. Kinda typical for a Miller B out here. And will probably end up being right. Just a damn shame really. Never seen you this bipolar over a storm before. I thought it was a given that we would end up much drier than forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 just a note folks in case you didn't see note above, site goes down at 2pm for maintenance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Good site for tracking current MSLP. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17 sorry if someone already posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 just a note folks in case you didn't see note above, site goes down at 2pm for maintenance In case it never comes back it was nice arguing about frozen water with you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yup.. Its digging in good. Fattening up for the kill. We got this. It's digging but my understanding is that it's not going negative soon enough. It's sort of going below and around us. Maybe it doesn't do that though and we rip tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Never seen you this bipolar over a storm before. I thought it was a given that we would end up much drier than forecast Yeah. The GFS and GGEM had me hoping for a bit. I thought we might be able to grab 3-5 inches on the front end. And I guess thats still possible. But less likely after the Euro run IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 2:01 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Good site for tracking current MSLP. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17 sorry if someone already posted. another http://coolwx.com/usstats/pchstats.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 CNN calling it the Blizzard of 2015 while The Weather Channel runs "Why Planes Crash" show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 CNN calling it the Blizzard of 2015 while The Weather Channel runs "Why Planes Crash" show. TWC : Weather :: MTV : Music Videos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's digging but my understanding is that it's not going negative soon enough. It's sort of going below and around us. Maybe it doesn't do that though and we rip tomorrow. My it goes negative.. Watch out cause we are gonna get smoked. I heard a met on a different board talking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah. The GFS and GGEM had me hoping for a bit. I thought we might be able to grab 3-5 inches on the front end. And I guess thats still possible. But less likely after the Euro run IMO. 2 inches. Run with it. We are out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 We were worried about the weird jump transfer but euro actually lost that idea. The good qpf just slides across to our north. Weird given the h5 track so maybe the other globals have this right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 HRRR has some good looks for tonight actually esp DC north.. DC is on the edge but if that verified we'd be off to a nice start in the best weird event ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 My it goes negative.. Watch out cause we are gonna get smoked. I heard a met on a different board talking it. wHAT DO YOU MEAN BY SMOKED? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What a mess of a forecast. So many different details. I'd lean toward the other guidance having it right since the euro kind of caved. I think getting the initial precip in here is going to be critical for totals but also mindsets around here. The gfs did well with the last clipper so maybe it will do a better job with the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 yes, but if you look at the prior hours on a loop you can see it's almost negative 18z h5 at 18 hrs is slightly neg it appears... or almost neg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 wHAT DO YOU MEAN BY SMOKED? As in get crushed with lots of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 As in get crushed with lots of snow As in this storm is gong to make me go back to smoking again after quitting 2 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 As in this storm is gong to make me go back to smoking again after quitting 2 years ago. I'm not going to face the music yet, still holding out all sorts of weenie hope for a miracle norlun 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 HRRR has some good looks for tonight actually esp DC north.. DC is on the edge but if that verified we'd be off to a nice start in the best weird event ever. How do temps look during that time? We seem to be in the 40s zone for now. I feel like there's gonna be quite a bit of melting to start things off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 HRRR has some good looks for tonight actually esp DC north.. DC is on the edge but if that verified we'd be off to a nice start in the best weird event ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah. The GFS and GGEM had me hoping for a bit. I thought we might be able to grab 3-5 inches on the front end. And I guess thats still possible. But less likely after the Euro run IMO. Really unsure of this one, wouldn't be surprised if I got 1" or 10". Norluns are hard to forecast. It certainly looks like a better setup than 12/2000 or 1/2005, or 12/2010. On the other hand the euro hates it and models aren't showing any good rates. Mets in our region haven't added much additional insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 HRRR 17 wasn't on wxbell for some reason.. 18 running now. this was 16: Moving around a bit.. still not great for you and me.. tho I think if there is any tendancy at range with the short term models it's that they bend south with precip as they close. I like the look of it on radar at the moment too. Tricky.. unless assume suck I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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