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1/25-1/27 Mauler Thread #2


DDweatherman

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Euro is worst case for out here. Majority of the front end thump misses north. Then we miss the coastal. Kinda typical for a Miller B out here. And will probably end up being right. Just a damn shame really.

Never seen you this bipolar over a storm before. I thought it was a given that we would end up much drier than forecast

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Never seen you this bipolar over a storm before. I thought it was a given that we would end up much drier than forecast

 

Yeah. The GFS and GGEM had me hoping for a bit. I thought we might be able to grab 3-5 inches on the front end. And I guess thats still possible. But less likely after the Euro run IMO.

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It's digging but my understanding is that it's not going negative soon enough. It's sort of going below and around us. Maybe it doesn't do that though and we rip tomorrow.

My it goes negative.. Watch out cause we are gonna get smoked. I heard a met on a different board talking it.

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What a mess of a forecast. So many different details. I'd lean toward the other guidance having it right since the euro kind of caved. I think getting the initial precip in here is going to be critical for totals but also mindsets around here.

The gfs did well with the last clipper so maybe it will do a better job with the front end.

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HRRR has some good looks for tonight actually esp DC north.. DC is on the edge but if that verified we'd be off to a nice start in the best weird event ever.

How do temps look during that time? We seem to be in the 40s zone for now. I feel like there's gonna be quite a bit of melting to start things off.

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Yeah. The GFS and GGEM had me hoping for a bit. I thought we might be able to grab 3-5 inches on the front end. And I guess thats still possible. But less likely after the Euro run IMO.

 

Really unsure of this one, wouldn't be surprised if I got 1" or 10". Norluns are hard to forecast. It certainly looks like a better setup than 12/2000 or 1/2005, or 12/2010. On the other hand the euro hates it and models aren't showing any good rates. 

 

Mets in our region haven't added much additional insight.

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HRRR

 

17 wasn't on wxbell for some reason.. 18 running now. this was 16:

 

yZVVze1.png

YobExSJ.png

 

Moving around a bit.. still not great for you and me.. tho I think if there is any tendancy at range with the short term models it's that they bend south with precip as they close.

 

I like the look of it on radar at the moment too. Tricky.. unless assume suck I guess. ;)

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