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1/25-1/27 Mauler Thread #2


DDweatherman

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These maps need to go. That was plainly illustrated with the max potential being 8 in NJ last night and actual forecasts 6 hours later bumped to 8-14"... Who cares if they have a logical reasoning to them if they are misleading and terrible for real communications.

They are effective for our partners that need them.

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If I recall correctly, this is the 72-hour outlook.

This would be the guesstimate of the Combined result of the clipper and the coastal.

However, LWX only wants to forecast the clipper results right now in the WWA (and given the 12Z runs, I don't blame them).

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They are effective for our partners that need them.

So make them internal or more human based. It's stupid for top mets at my holly to be pretending the max potential is 8" last night publicly then attacking the public for 'not getting it'.
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SPECIAL STATEMENT

Statement as of 11:56 AM EST on January 25, 2015

... Complex winter weather coming to Baltimore/Washington region

tonight through Tuesday...

A complex winter storm scenario will develop tonight and continue

through Tuesday for the greater Baltimore/Washington region.

Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley tonight... then redevelop

offshore of Cape Hatteras as a strong coastal storm during the

day Monday. This will give the greater Baltimore and Washington

region two separate bouts of winter weather.

The first round of precipitation will start early this evening in

western Maryland... extreme northern Virginia... and the eastern

Panhandle of West Virginia and continue through Monday. In these

areas... the precipitation may start as a period of mixed rain and

snow before changing over to all snow by daybreak Monday. The

snow will continue through the day on Monday... making travel

difficult particularly north of Interstate 66 and west of the Blue

Ridge. Winter storm warnings have been posted for this region.

Tonight... as the precipitation progresses eastward towards the

Interstate 95 corridor... rain will mix with snow in the immediate

Baltimore and Washington DC metropolitan areas as it spreads

eastward. However... by daybreak Monday... precipitation should

change over to all snow across the entire region with the

exception of southern Maryland. Some models suggest that

precipitation on Monday will stay all rain in areas south and

east of Washington DC... so there remains considerable uncertainty

for areas of Maryland south of Route 50. Winter weather

advisories have been issued for the greater Baltimore and

Washington metropolitan areas.

Finally... as the coastal storm starts to rapidly develop late Monday

afternoon off the North Carolina coast... a second round of winter

weather may further impact the region... this time primarily east

of Interstate 95. Snow bands along with gusty northeast winds up

to 40 mph are expected to develop around the powerful storm system

Monday night and Tuesday as it moves northeast towards Cape

Cod. An additional 5 inches or more of snow is possible in the

counties along Maryland's portion of the Chesapeake Bay. Blowing

snow is also possible... reducing visibilities to below one-quarter

of a mile at times. Winter storm watches have been issued for the

Maryland counties directly adjacent to the Chesapeake Bay.

Stay tuned to your favorite media outlet and NOAA Weather Radio

for further updates on this developing winter storm system.

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These maps need to go. That was plainly illustrated with the max potential being 8 in NJ last night and actual forecasts 6 hours later bumped to 8-14"... Who cares if they have a logical reasoning to them if they are misleading and terrible for real communications.

Nobody agrees with that. They are useful. Should wpc remove their probability thresholds?

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Nobody agrees with that. They are useful. Should wpc remove their probability thresholds?

Lol.. Sure. I'm not going to muck up this thread but don't be silly. NWS is still years behind most places with public comms. They can internally figure that out and remain behind or take some constructive criticism and work with it.
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Lol.. Sure. I'm not going to muck up this thread but don't be silly. NWS is still years behind most places with public comms. They can internally figure that out and remain behind or take some constructive criticism and work with it.

You do the same thing at CWG with threshold maps...

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So make them internal or more human based. It's stupid for top mets at my holly to be pretending the max potential is 8" last night publicly then attacking the public for 'not getting it'.

About 80% of your comments on this page are sarcastic. You always put a negative spin on everything without having full facts. I explained the use and the methods behind these products last year and we even setup a whole new topic on the forum and discussed at length. The product is for planning purposes only and are used by hundreds of transportation and EM's across the Mid Atlantic and NE. We take their feedback very seriously! We have even changed things based on user feedback and I even took feedback given by folks on here to help make the products better. It's not made to give a max case scenario for your back yard forecast.

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You do the same thing at CWG with threshold maps...

I guarantee you if the euro showed 30" for parts of our area we would not act like 8" was a reasonable worst case scenario and push people to documentation links explainiing why.
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Lol.. Sure. I'm not going to muck up this thread but don't be silly. NWS is still years behind most places with public comms. They can internally figure that out and remain behind or take some constructive criticism and work with it.

Not much of what you say is constructive... That's the problem. I don't come on here ragging on the cwg approach.

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I guarantee you if the euro showed 30" for parts of our area we would not act like 8" was a reasonable worst case scenario and push people to documentation links explainiing why.

 

Well I fully support both methods

 

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About 80% of your comments on this page are sarcastic. You always put a negative spin on everything without having full facts. I explained the use and the methods behind these products last year and we even setup a whole new topic on the forum and discussed at length. The product is for planning purposes only and are used by hundreds of transportation and EM's across the Mid Atlantic and NE. We take their feedback very seriously! We have even changed things based on user feedback and I even took feedback given by folks on here to help make the products better. It's not made to give a max case scenario for your back yard forecast.

 

I love NWS.. I think it's probably among the best functioning and most valuable government offerings. There is a very apparent culture there as well.. fortunately it seems a lot of the younger crowd coming in realizes that and things will eventually change. Full stop. Thanks for the convo. ;)

 

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Not much of what you say is constructive... That's the problem. I don't come on here ragging on the cwg approach.

 

I am done but just to be clear I am not speaking on behalf of CWG. I have not consulted anyone there in my thoughts and have had similar discussions on Twitter.. and I'll say some constructive ones with people from NWS there. This board in particular often leans toward anything you say about NWS that's not NWS favorable is a serious offense. I'm just sharing thoughts. You'd also be able to find where I at least mildly wonder-complained about CWG's last forecast with the range somewhere in a thread here. Like it or not I'm an advanced public.. if I don't get a forecast, I can assure you a whole hell of a lot of people don't and I have observed that fact repeatedly.

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GFS ensemble again supports that wrap around trough band. All models have a nice area of precip actually but some (NAM/UKMET) take it across PA. The GFS is more south and has the best axis across MD but gets northern VA into it also. The coastal is sort of irrelavent now to me. Only the euro does that weird transfer thing and its probably due to its amplification bias. It over amps the secondary and kills off the primary too soon. The issue then is for the primary band of precip to end up more south like the GFS. That is going to depend how badly the trough going negative pushes the thermal profiles north ahead of the low.post-2304-0-30892700-1422206666_thumb.gi

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FWIW, nearly every GFS ensemble member on Raleigh's show the banding/CCB/whatever it is around DCA at hr 36 and 42

 

yea its about as impressive a signal for such a feature as I have seen on an ensemble...I posted the total qpf above.  GFS is either showing its new skills or falling on its face again with this one. 

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