mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 cold front is moving south and is now around Harrisburg, Pa http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=st&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I refuse to look because I will cry, but what the hell do you do when every model known to man gives you 1.5-2+ feet 2+ days before the event? 2/6/10 might have been close to that, but I don't believe every model was doing that consistently like they have been for ENE This is why I always stick with 2+ day old models and ignore the more recent ones. They are always better for my snowfall totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I refuse to look because I will cry, but what the hell do you do when every model known to man gives you 1.5-2+ feet 2+ days before the event? 2/6/10 might have been close to that, but I don't believe every model was doing that consistently like they have been for ENE I'm pretty sure the models for Feb. 5-6, 2010 were consistently hammering us 2+ days out (but that was a different pattern, much "easier" to handle). Similarly, PD-II was advertised several days in advance too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Any chance of rogue bands setting up overhead a la Feb 2006? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC1121 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BRIEFLY TODAY.LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIATONIGHT...STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A COUPLE OF CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES IN EFFECT FOR THE WINTERSTORM TONIGHT-MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECTFOR NORTH CENTRAL MD...AND PORTIONS OF SHENANDOAH VALLEY. HAVECHANGED THE AREAS UNDER A WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER WEATHERADVISORY...WHILE ALSO EXTENDING THE ADVISORY SOUTH TO INCLUDE DCMETRO AND SOUTHWEST DOWN TO ORANGE COUNTY. ALL PRODUCTS IN EFFECTUNTIL 23Z MON. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THECOUNTIES BORDERING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THRUTUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOWAS IT DEEPENS AND PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST.BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A QUIET FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TO THEAREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 40S AND INTO THELOWER 50S AROUND DC METRO.UPR LOW WL BE TRACKING SWD IN THE SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT WRN RDG/ERNTROF THAT N AMERICA HAS BEEN SEEING THIS WINTER. THIS IS PROGGEDTO TRACK NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER OVRNGT AND THEN DEEPEN QUICKLYOFFSHORE MON. THIS KEEPS THE MID ATLC IN THE COLD AIR. WHILE THESFC TEMPS WL NOT BE MUCH COLDER THAN NRML THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNWL BE SUBFRZG SO PCPN WL REACH THE GRND AS SNOW. EVERY MDL WE`VELOOKED AT HAS A BULLSEYE OF HVIEST SNOWFALL OVR THE NWNRN PART OFTHE FCST AREA. BLV AFTR MDNGT THE SNOW COULD COME DOWN AT A RATEOF OVR AN INCH/HR ACROSS WRN MD/ERN WV. THIS IS XPCTD TO CONT INTOMON MRNG B4 THE MOISTURE/ENERGY TRANSLATE TOWARD NJ/NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I certainly don't envy what the NWS forecasters during these type of situations... and I very much appreciate all they do! Thanks. I know it can be frustrating at times being a snow lover. I'm a winter weather junkie myself and it took me 10 years to not forecast on excitement or snow wish casting and to stick with the meteorology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 You guys should go back and look at the last 2 hours in this thread - they really should call this site Manic Weather Forums (not judging - I am just as guilty as everyone but it is pretty darn funny!) Mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I understand, and I'm not a fan of excessive LWX bashing... but what guidance supports 3-5" Monday night for northern MD? I highly doubt that will verify... Where does it say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 If it was only so easy. It's fun to be a weather hobbyist, not so fun to have to do it for 10 million people in real life! knowing that teh Weather Experts such as You are challenged 12-24 hours out makes me belive that people at nasa don't know about all the Asteroids in our general vincinity. close fly by today of a large one. challenging weather Forecast in one thing, but a whole nother bag of tricks if we get the Asteroid forecast wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Where does it say that?URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1040 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 MDZ006-011-507-508-252345- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.150126T2300Z-150127T2300Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.150126T0300Z-150126T2300Z/ NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-NORTHWEST HARFORD- SOUTHEAST HARFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PARKTON...REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE... BALTIMORE...DUNDALK...CATONSVILLE...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN 1040 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 knowing that teh Weather Experts such as You are challenged 12-24 hours out makes me belive that people at nasa don't know about all the Asteroids in our general vincinity. close fly by today of a large one. challenging weather Forecast in one thing, but a whole nother bag of tricks if we get the Asteroid forecast wrong. lol. Why not just say what's on your mind instead of writing an analogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1040 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 MDZ006-011-507-508-252345- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.150126T2300Z-150127T2300Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.150126T0300Z-150126T2300Z/ NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-NORTHWEST HARFORD- SOUTHEAST HARFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PARKTON...REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE... BALTIMORE...DUNDALK...CATONSVILLE...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN 1040 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. Watch is 50% confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yes...I have TWC on the tv....gfs spooked them....earlier they were gung-ho on Philly to NY getting a ton...now they have started saying amounts up in the air.....nevertheless SNE gets smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 energetic storm... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 CMC is good for the northern tier. General 3-5". DC get .30 precip but the surface is warm throughout. Some indications of banding on the tail but the little precip maxes are over baltimore and s md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 lol. Why not just say what's on your mind instead of writing an analogy. i did say what was in my Mind. i don't have the Envy for you, as you must deal with lots of chaotic variables and ever evolving data inputs to come up with a Forecast in a very Big population corridor. seems like lots still up in the Air per teh computer Models. thanks to You for your service to us, the General Public. i also do not want to be surprised by a sneaky Asteroid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 energetic storm... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Jeeez noaa needs to update their website. Flash was obselete a decade ago. Its barely even supported anymore, certainly not by any mobile OS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On cue DT discounts the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Don't look now, but lwx max potential maps may have just skied our limits. http://www.weather.gov/images/lwx/winter/SnowAmt90Prcntl.pngThese maps need to go. That was plainly illustrated with the max potential being 8 in NJ last night and actual forecasts 6 hours later bumped to 8-14"... Who cares if they have a logical reasoning to them if they are misleading and terrible for real communications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Jeeez noaa needs to update their website. Flash was obselete a decade ago. Its barely even supported anymore, certainly not by any mobile OS. lol true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Jeeez noaa needs to update their website. Flash was obselete a decade ago. Its barely even supported anymore, certainly not by any mobile OS. Here you go - animated GIF: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-animated.gif http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif Oh wait, animated gifs were obsolete a decade ago too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yes...I have TWC on the tv....gfs spooked them....earlier they were gung-ho on Philly to NY getting a ton...now they have started saying amounts up in the air.....nevertheless SNE gets smoked. Cantore most probably will camp out in Boston? Just to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GGEM looks similar to the GFS. 700 is tucked right against the Jersey coast at 36. Plenty of precip over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Partly cloudy, 48/34. Waiting for my snowstorm later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Partly cloudy, 48/34. Waiting for my snowstorm later. You getting a snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GGEM looks similar to the GFS. 700 is tucked right against the Jersey coast at 36. Plenty of precip over the area. you mean "our" area right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 CMC looks west and wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Philly to NY is not uncertain, They are getting 10-36. We are uncertain, we are getting 2-4" 2 days in a row. Someone in the are will end up with 2 BS snowdays over 4" of snow. In Philly they will at least get 10" to justify cancellation and only on 1 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Not sure what LWX is doing if the forecast is 4-6 and the WSWs were just downgraded. I want to be optimistic, but we have a lot going against us for this type of event. I'd lock this up in a second if I could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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