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1/25-1/27 Mauler Thread #2


DDweatherman

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maybe we're in a good spot... we've all slashed expectations to hoping it surpasses Boxing Day. that band is weird but it does happen (not here)... more models showing it.

 

It's a very intense storm by that time and not running away. The h7 plot I just posted looks pretty good for "a chance" at some sort of weird periphery band. I'm not really sure what to think. I wish the stupid primary would just track south 75 miles and call it a day. 

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I think it's a sign that mountains get less precip as rain than valleys do...

 

There's a lot going on with this storm, but two of the important factors seem to be the rain-snow line around hour 30

 

8EifYIt.png

 

and the area of heavy snow that passes through southern MD around hour 42

 

3MUZbKz.png

 

A similar area was on the 06z run, but it looks like it has shifted north and intensified.

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It's a very intense storm by that time and not running away. The h7 plot I just posted looks pretty good for "a chance" at some sort of weird periphery band. I'm not really sure what to think. I wish the stupid primary would just track south 75 miles and call it a day.

Are we seeing a slowing down of the storms movement?

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Are we seeing a slowing down of the storms movement?

 

It becomes vertically stacked, stalls, and occludes over cape cod. Keeps it from running away like most storms. The size and intensity plus the stall gives us low latitude folks a chance. I'm not really buying it because it almost never happens when models show it. But at least we have something to watch other than everyone north of us on the coast getting buried in a biblical fashion. 

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It becomes vertically stacked, stalls, and occludes over cape cod. Keeps it from running away like most storms. The size and intensity plus the stall gives us low latitude folks a chance. I'm not really buying it because it almost never happens when models show it. But at least we have something to watch other than everyone north of us on the coast getting buried in a biblical fashion. 

nudge teh 500 low 100 miles south and we'd do well.  I'd still lean towards whatever the Euro does today.  Relying on a goofy band doesn't usually work out.  Could happen but usually fails. 

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If it was only so easy. It's fun to be a weather hobbyist, not so fun to have to do it for 10 million people in real life!

I understand, and I'm not a fan of excessive LWX bashing... but what guidance supports 3-5" Monday night for northern MD? I highly doubt that will verify...

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If it was only so easy. It's fun to be a weather hobbyist, not so fun to have to do it for 10 million people in real life!

I certainly don't envy what the  NWS forecasters during these type of situations... and I very much appreciate all they do!

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nudge teh 500 low 100 miles south and we'd do well.  I'd still lean towards whatever the Euro does today.  Relying on a goofy band doesn't usually work out.  Could happen but usually fails. 

 

My guess is it sticks to its guns from last night. Maybe a nudge better. I suppose it could get worse but not much room for that considering how lame last night was. 

 

Big bombing storms usually have all kinds of nuances that won't be known until it's taking place. Going off the vast majority of similar storms in my lifetime, I'm not very excited at all. 

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I understand, and I'm not a fan of excessive LWX bashing... but what guidance supports 3-5" Monday night for northern MD? I highly doubt that will verify...

 

The feature that had been  referred to as an inverse trough is really a Norlun trough wanna be.

As the main feature strengthens over the ocean, some energy lags behind at 500 mb

and acts as a lifting mechanism.   There is so much upper level vorticity in the larger pattern

that we could get some accumulating snow after the surface low deepens.   Not like they

will in Boston, though.

 

To know when the moisture cuts off, check out the 700 mb chart.

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Indeed. It is a hard job to begin with, but I can only imagine how exceptionally difficult it is when looking at a complex setup like this. Any thoughts on our battle with temps and whether we'll really see the fabled "savior" band late Monday?

Predicting where banding features setup is a difficult task. Models have hinted at nova area for several runs but really all depends on the whole setup. Real tough to pinpoint these smaller features and often times the models over do wraparound precipitation. If the coastal intensifies faster, further south and pulls away slower I can see Nova and points east getting into more banding but still would be on the west fringe of the system.

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