Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I was just thinking about the GFS of course. The data is already in someplace, right? For at least the next few days or does it all become available all at once? As I understand things, the (American) models have specific time slots in the operational job stream. NAM is first, the GFS starts outputting data around (I believe?) 10-ish. So I'm sure they get the data hot off the presses quicker than we'd see it here, but they can't get it before it's run in the job stream. Then of course, there has to be some time to analyze and coordinate things, etc. And like I said, the Euro doesn't come out until later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 43.6/32 here. We torch before potential snow as well as we bust. Meh, it torched right before the two March events last year, and we had a worse sun angle to contend with! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I remember that amazing blizzard there, pretty much the one good event in the East that entire lame winter. Same year we got shafted with Noquester that March, I believe? SNE also got a foot of snow from that as I recall. Some of us in NoVA also got nearly a foot from Snoquester. Just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM keeps the primary in southern wva and sva. Colder solution. .25-.50 precip for most of us. Northern tier of MD does pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Well 12z GFS is underway... lets hope it gives us some good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Some of us in NoVA also got nearly a foot from Snoquester. Just sayin' That's true, but it was an area-wide failure especially with the closures (where in NoVA, by the way?). I heard there were several 3-4" reports from the night before in areas just to the west and north of DC metro, before things ground to a premature halt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Well 12z GFS is underway... lets hope it gives us some good luck "Hope...is a candle." Of course, it could get blown out just as easily but I'd like to be a bit optimistic even if the GFS looks meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 As I understand things, the (American) models have specific time slots in the operational job stream. NAM is first, the GFS starts outputting data around (I believe?) 10-ish. So I'm sure they get the data hot off the presses quicker than we'd see it here, but they can't get it before it's run in the job stream. Then of course, there has to be some time to analyze and coordinate things, etc. And like I said, the Euro doesn't come out until later. Here: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat_new/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Here: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat_new/ Ahhh, thanks very much! I think they may have jockeyed the times a bit with the new implementation but it's about the same as before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Already 47... nice spring day out there. you have to get to SE NC before you see that number http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=at&expanddiv=hide_bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Already 47... nice spring day out there. far from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Precip on DC's doorstep at 00z tonight on 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM has been pretty consistent the last few runs. I think there's a slight colder / drier trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Precip on DC's doorstep at 00z tonight on 12z GFS Nothing good south of MD/PA border and temps above freezing thru at least 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Nothing good south of MD/PA border and temps above freezing thru at least 9z. I hate this hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Might be good Monday morning. Nice batch coming into western parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Little .25 in 6 hours area out near winchester at 15z but doesn't seem to progress well.. freezing line never sinks south of northern md counties thru 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Might be good Monday morning. Nice batch coming into western parts of the area. Warmer than 6z. I'm not sure I ever get below freezing overnight into the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Warmer than 6z. I'm not sure I ever get below freezing overnight into the morning. yeah it's pretty crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Does the NWS have access to the 12z suite right now? No. It is only available on public/ open internet sites so NOAA strictly prohibits. They working on the policy however and may allow their forecasters to access these starting next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 the redemption band! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 yeah it's pretty crappy. All we can do is hope the primary doesn't track into northern wv at this point. Not much time left. RGEM was better all the way around. The sinking feeling I got yesterday has gotten sinkier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 At least the GFS is keeping the precip shield over us at the start. The NAM had it north of NOVA and DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Reminds me of Boxing Day... MDZ014-252345- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.150126T2300Z-150127T2300Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.150126T0700Z-150126T2300Z/ ANNE ARUNDEL- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ANNAPOLIS 1040 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR BETWEEN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY WITH VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO NEAR ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL MAKE TRAVELING DANGEROUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Leesburg, Go to NY. If the meetings are cancelled, you will be right in the middle of the snowstorm. You can post blizzard pictures Live from New York lol This is the chance of a lifetime! You are going to be in the middle of a BECS with over 30 inches of wind driven snow! Imagine taking a frigid jebwalk in driving, blinding snow, unable to even see where you are walking, blinded by 55 dbZ flakes swirling all around you in the New York City streetlights! Don't miss this! Get out in the storm, enjoy it! Get pics and video! Imagine getting to find out PERSONALLY what its like to get mired in a HUGE 12 foot snowdrift! You dont have to accept the plight of Northern Virginians. You dont have to make the best of a car top coating of snow! You have an opportunity to personally experience a massive crippling blizzard in real life, not just read about it in the KU book! Go for it! Look at it this way: YOU WILL NOT BE FRINGED. We will be fringed. You'll be right smack dab in the middle of The Day After Tomorrow. he would be stuck in a hampton inn in queens. sure, free breakfast, but cmon man. it's just a touch better than being stuck in a motel 6 by philadelphia international airport, which is my personal version of Hell on earth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 the redemption band! finally, some good news from Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 ermmm... hrs 42 - 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 AA/St. Mary's/Calvert WSWatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 All we can do is hope the primary doesn't track into northern wv at this point. Not much time left. RGEM was better all the way around. The sinking feeling I got yesterday has gotten sinkier. I'm starting to root for screwage for others. PHL is in our club on this run at least.. NYC close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Surface Low just west of Roanoake at 24. This should be better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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