attml Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 WHAT IS AN INVERTED TROUGH? An upside down trough is a ridge, right? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 you look at this map and wonder why we're all not dancing in the street http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_009_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=009&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150125+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Because we know that Boston is going to get 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 12 NAM has the surface low 30 miles south of where the 06 placed it. Chill...patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 12 NAM has the surface low 30 miles south of where the 06 placed it. Chill...patience. trough is deeper and better it ain't over until the fat lady sings....or it's Wednesday on your calendar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 12 NAM has the surface low 30 miles south of where the 06 placed it. Chill...patience. hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 don't know what that means but it sure looks better at 24 hrs, that's as far as I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 don't know what that means but it sure looks better at 24 hrs, that's as far as I am it means it should be deleted for useless clutter. Looks like the trough is going to go negative in time for the inverted trough to deliver on this run. Pretty much a complete whiff on the initial precip from the primary. What does fall is either rain or melt on contact until you get a good bit north and west of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM is garbage on the initial batch unless you live well north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Mitch, its a crappy run for us. Nothing on the front and praying for scraps after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Mitch, its a crappy run for us. Nothing on the front and praying for scraps after that. yep 12/26/10 in a different form but the same result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Based on the nam, DCA and bwi could get shut out unless we get banded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Near-shutout has been in the cards for over 24 hours. NAM finally caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 With the upper air dynamics and overall pattern in the Atlantic I think we have a good shot a southeast retrograde. pushing the coastal snow down in Howard county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 yep 12/26/10 in a different form but the same result I've been expecting it since yesterday. I didn't stay up for the euro. Been down this road too many times with the same result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Based on the nam, DCA and bwi could get shut out unless we get banded. The NAM Friday morning gave me 6" of snow, I got a half inch of slop and over .5" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looks like it's our longitude FTL yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm going to go with a GFS/GGEM/EURO combo for now. If one of these models show a NAM-like solution at 12z, then I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 At least we won't be going into gametime with a warning for 6-12 this time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I really don't trust the nam, so even if it showed a big hit I'd be skeptical, but this winter we need everything in our corner so I would have liked to see it look closer to a hit that said, it looks like it gives me around 2", give or take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM is way better for the Wilmington-Dover areas and NE, and I mean way better. This is going to be hard to stomach. Models have been poor this winter, don't know what happened with the temps last night but they were like 5 degrees above forecast. Oh and let me reiterate that NAM is insane, 3' showing on LI on IWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 While the NAM sucked, this is still an evolving situation. The models continue to change every 6 hours. Probably will continue to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 12Z NAM seems to be the very definition of screw job for the exact geographic dimensions of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hr 42 on the 12z NAM is a huge improvement from 06z. It gets some decent precip back into the Delmarva from the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'd voice displeasure but i don't want to offend anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 12Z NAM seems to be the very definition of screw job for the exact geographic dimensions of this forum. It even removed our inverted trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 High res is more enthused for central MD between 8 and noon tomorrow. But i honestly don't buy it. I'm going to accept being outside and looking in and stay away from the northern subforum obs threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 12Z NAM seems to be the very definition of screw job for the exact geographic dimensions of this forum. Yepp.Typical front end light snow here and raging two foot Boston snow machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 High res is more enthused for central MD between 8 and noon tomorrow. But i honestly don't buy it. I'm going to accept being outside and looking in and stay away from the northern subforum obs threads. There is an obs thread for us northerners? Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 There is an obs thread for us northerners? Where? lol- philly north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The NAM run wasn't so bad compared to 06z. 1) More snow for most of the region compared to 06z 06z 12z 2) Deeper, more western coastal low than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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