SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 12z suite is our last chance to pull something off, with the amount of changes we've seen over the last 24h I have to believe it's still possible. For some reason I have a good feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What I need is timing of the snow up 95 if I leave around 5 am will I be white knuckling it or will I get ahead of it? I would leave earlier. Can you go up tonight? I would want to be there by midnight to avoid any travel issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Cobb output from the 6z suite NAM: 5.8" with .33" PL @ BWI. 9.7" with .13" PL @ DCA 6.1" @ Westminster 13.7" @ IAD GFS: 3.9" @BWI .8" @ DCA with the rest coming in the form of rain. Total QPF was over .5" 8.2" @ Westminster 1.7" @ IAD lots of bust potential the further south you are with this. Thanks for posting this, now I don't have to go look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I can't...it's gonna have to be tomorrow .... If you left at 4-5am, looks like you will be driving in some snow, mostly light, until you get a bit north of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 lol...RPM is worse than CRAS. LOL...no it isn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 If you left at 4-5am, looks like you will be driving in some snow, mostly light, until you get a bit north of Philly. Thanks...yeah...I'm assuming I can get in front of it as the coastal doesn't hit up there until later right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 3z SREFs look a bit crap. 21z looked pretty nice wrt precip with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Thanks...yeah...I'm assuming I can get in front of it as the coastal doesn't hit up there until later right? Late tonight into tomorrow its just lighter stuff with the clipper, but most of that is during the day tomorrow up that way. The coastal storm impact begins tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 WPC total 3 day probs for >= 4" image.jpg hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I was just reading Justin Berk's newest post on his site. Since, he likes to note the Canadian model when forecasting storms, there are pictures of a very rainy model run of the RGEM included in this post. I don't know if that's a newer model run or not. Did the newest run of the RGEM follow suit with the rain it forecasted yesterday or up snow totals from the last run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 new srefs look a bit more impressive with the coastal throwing back moisture in our (DCA/BWI) direction still not huge, but another improvement in my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm hugging the gfs. .83" qpf for Westminster, all snow starting 00z tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I was just reading Justin Berk's newest post on his site. Since, he likes to note the Canadian model when forecasting storms, there are pictures of a very rainy model run of the RGEM included in this post. I don't know if that's a newer model run or not. Did the newest run of the RGEM follow suit with the rain it forecasted yesterday or up snow totals from the last run? Oh that is definitely from the newest run. There are significant temperature issues with the storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I was just reading Justin Berk's newest post on his site. Since, he likes to note the Canadian model when forecasting storms, there are pictures of a very rainy model run of the RGEM included in this post. I don't know if that's a newer model run or not. Did the newest run of the RGEM follow suit with the rain it forecasted yesterday or up snow totals from the last run? I'm afraid so...http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015012506&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=317 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Oh that is definitely from the newest run. There are significant temperature issues with the storm.. Is it 'cause we torch today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 its 34 out there right now... my forecast high was for 46. Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 new srefs look a bit more impressive with the coastal throwing back moisture in our (DCA/BWI) direction still not huge, but another improvement in my eyes Major improvement. 3z took a step back. 9z looks even better than 21z did, which was pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It is 38 outside right now, my low was 36 lmao....... High this afternoon will be 49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Is it 'cause we torch today? No not necessarily.. right now the current obs are much colder than what the models had depicted last night. I think we definitely have temps on our side. Besides a storm like this will manufacture its own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The temp issue is ironic because of why it's happening. When we started getting greedy and rooting for a neg tilt to the trough we (or at least I) didn't think about what types of issues it could cause. When things looked good for a light to moderate event, the slp track was through n ky-s va-off the coast. Nice and simple. Intact slp tracking south of us = easy cold air. Because the vort has dug so deep and the trough goes neutral/neg, the primary low loses progression over wva and stalls it until the coastal gets going. This puts a wrench in our cold air advection because with the primary doing that we don't get rid of return (sw) flow until the coastal takes over and the primary fizzles. The good runs all had slp progressing south of us with closed circulation. That all changed yesterday. Now we deal with temps and precip at the same time. Typical mid atlantic "no mans land" in between good stuff to the west and good stuff to the east. It's a very complicated process that happens at our latitude. There is room for both a surprise or a big wtf. As stated earlier in this thread, there are 2 events to watch. How intact and far south and east the primary gets before stalling and getting absorbed will play a large role in how much precip falls after the surface gets cold enough. N MD and the winchester crew are obviously in the best place. PSU made a great post about the potential for localized banding with the inverted trough. NAM, RGEM, GFS and Euro all have the signal for it to be possible to get enhanced banded n/s oriented precip falling in the region. Whether it happens or not or where it happens will become close to a nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The temp issue is ironic because of why it's happening. When we started getting greedy and rooting for a neg tilt to the trough we (or at least I) didn't think about what types of issues it could cause. When things looked good for a light to moderate event, the slp track was through n ky-s va-off the coast. Nice and simple. Intact slp tracking south of us = easy cold air. Because the vort has dug so deep and the trough goes neutral/neg, the primary low loses progression over wva and stalls it until the coastal gets going. This puts a wrench in our cold air advection because with the primary doing that we don't get rid of return (sw) flow until the coastal takes over and the primary fizzles. The good runs all had slp progressing south of us with closed circulation. That all changed yesterday. Now we deal with temps and precip at the same time. Typical mid atlantic "no mans land" in between good stuff to the west and good stuff to the east. It's a very complicated process that happens at our latitude. There is room for both a surprise or a big wtf. As stated earlier in this thread, there are 2 events to watch. How intact and far south and east the primary gets before stalling and getting absorbed will play a large role in how much precip falls after the surface gets cold enough. N MD and the winchester crew are obviously in the best place. PSU made a great post about the potential for localized banding with the inverted trough. NAM, RGEM, GFS and Euro all have the signal for it to be possible to get enhanced banded n/s oriented precip falling in the region. Whether it happens or not or where it happens will become close to a nowcast. WHAT IS AN INVERTED TROUGH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The temp issue is ironic because of why it's happening. When we started getting greedy and rooting for a neg tilt to the trough we (or at least I) didn't think about what types of issues it could cause. When things looked good for a light to moderate event, the slp track was through n ky-s va-off the coast. Nice and simple. Intact slp tracking south of us = easy cold air. Because the vort has dug so deep and the trough goes neutral/neg, the primary low loses progression over wva and stalls it until the coastal gets going. This puts a wrench in our cold air advection because with the primary doing that we don't get rid of return (sw) flow until the coastal takes over and the primary fizzles. The good runs all had slp progressing south of us with closed circulation. That all changed yesterday. Now we deal with temps and precip at the same time. Typical mid atlantic "no mans land" in between good stuff to the west and good stuff to the east. It's a very complicated process that happens at our latitude. There is room for both a surprise or a big wtf. As stated earlier in this thread, there are 2 events to watch. How intact and far south and east the primary gets before stalling and getting absorbed will play a large role in how much precip falls after the surface gets cold enough. N MD and the winchester crew are obviously in the best place. PSU made a great post about the potential for localized banding with the inverted trough. NAM, RGEM, GFS and Euro all have the signal for it to be possible to get enhanced banded n/s oriented precip falling in the region. Whether it happens or not or where it happens will become close to a nowcast. something inside keeps nagging me not to give up and that the models still don't have it right yet of course, today being the 15 year anniversary of a not too dissimilar situation makes me pause some more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 what I am hoping for is that 1034 high north ofMaine grows a pair and slows down the coastals northward progression long enough to let the storm amplify close to the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 new srefs look a bit more impressive with the coastal throwing back moisture in our (DCA/BWI) directionstill not huge, but another improvement in my eyes Nice step up from 3z. Mean at bwi is now over 5". APG at about 8" and DCA around 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 My forecast said it would be sunny in DC this morning but instead it is cloudy. Not sure if that will play a role in temps later today but I will take anything. The upper atmosphere is still cold so the surface should cool and support snow pretty quickly once precip starts. Think some of the models are overdoing the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The temp issue is ironic because of why it's happening. When we started getting greedy and rooting for a neg tilt to the trough we (or at least I) didn't think about what types of issues it could cause. When things looked good for a light to moderate event, the slp track was through n ky-s va-off the coast. Nice and simple. Intact slp tracking south of us = easy cold air. Because the vort has dug so deep and the trough goes neutral/neg, the primary low loses progression over wva and stalls it until the coastal gets going. This puts a wrench in our cold air advection because with the primary doing that we don't get rid of return (sw) flow until the coastal takes over and the primary fizzles. The good runs all had slp progressing south of us with closed circulation. That all changed yesterday. Now we deal with temps and precip at the same time. Typical mid atlantic "no mans land" in between good stuff to the west and good stuff to the east. It's a very complicated process that happens at our latitude. There is room for both a surprise or a big wtf. As stated earlier in this thread, there are 2 events to watch. How intact and far south and east the primary gets before stalling and getting absorbed will play a large role in how much precip falls after the surface gets cold enough. N MD and the winchester crew are obviously in the best place. PSU made a great post about the potential for localized banding with the inverted trough. NAM, RGEM, GFS and Euro all have the signal for it to be possible to get enhanced banded n/s oriented precip falling in the region. Whether it happens or not or where it happens will become close to a nowcast. Excellent explanation, that about wraps it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 My forecast said it would be sunny in DC this morning but instead it is cloudy. Not sure if that will play a role in temps later today but I will take anything. The upper atmosphere is still cold so the surface should cool and support snow pretty quickly once precip starts. Think some of the models are overdoing the warmth. hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 you look at this map and wonder why we're all not dancing in the street http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_009_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=009&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150125+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 WHAT IS AN INVERTED TROUGH? This is hr 42 of the 6z gefs. The trough is going negative (another way to think of negative is nw/se orientation of the isobars. The curved yellow streak over our area indicates energy and lift that could produce banded precip. If you don't know how to read a 500mb vorticity chart then you should spend a lot of time reading and learning about. Most important model chart to know and understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 what I am hoping for is that 1034 high north ofMaine grows a pair and slows down the coastals northward progression long enough to let the storm amplify close to the Delmarva. Yeah I think there is definitely something to be said for that. It would only take a little tiny shift to the west to get the MA in to HECs zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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