HighStakes Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I do remember we got some snow, but I was bummed about missing that 10" thundersnow band northeast of us then the couple inches we got. This may be a stretch but I think there is a possibility that the first batch that comes in tomorrow evening may produce something decent. I think a band of moderate snow may develop in northern MD along the Mason/Dixon line for several hours. This signature can be seen on several models. Even the Euro had it somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Even after the euro run, LWX didn't cut back on totals. In fact, they moved the 3-4 line surther through all of DC proper and dropped the 4-6 line further south. Just shocked I am now in NWS's 2-3 inch region. I was hoping against hope for at least a nanoscopic coating. Hmmm, maybe I should set up my snow ruler in the back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 LWX has been very aggressive with last 2 events. Last night they stuck with it despite having no support from guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Wowzers, what a huge difference, STILL, with the QPF output in these models. NAM contuines to favor DC and points west, while the EC says you need to head east and northeast. Even for those that wanna chase locally, which way on route 50 should they go, east or west? I will say this, the GFS has been a bit more consistent with this system of late (if that means anything, because it too has shown trends, though not as wild). Before it's upgrade, we all remember the GFS as doing alright comparatively speaking with these Miller Bs, particularly with the transfer. We shall see...should be a fun day at work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I like this part but if it's true why no watch yet for the south and east counties. THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ARE COMING TO LIGHT W/ RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE AS THE POSSIBLE LOCATIONS FOR WARNING CRITERIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 How deep had the low digged versus progged ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 h5 nearly closed off in N KY at 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Lots of potential, but playing this real safe, I am hoping for an inch. I dont live in the highlands. I dont live in Boston. I live in extreme southeast Prince William County at 60 foot elevation. It's generally a good idea to take the forecast amts and chop em right in half. We dont have this particular handicap wrt rainfall, but where snow accums are involved here on the Tropical Fall Line care must be exercised. Another item, NWS is forecasting my high temp today to hit the UPPER 40s. I might start as some light rain (big surprise there lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looks okay at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Meh run IMO.. 3-4" for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Meh run IMO.. 3-4" for DC problem for us is it is warm...we start warm...and then we get warm on Monday....some of it is simply from lack of decent precip....the big wildcard is the period of enhancement starting Monday afternoon and going into Monday evening. We actually get cold. If we can get into some good bands that might be when we score....if precip is light/intermittent we could be upper 30s midday on Monday...as far as overnight Monday into Tuesday...hard to say what the coastal will do, other than maybe some intermittent bands and flurries....I definitely wouldn't call it a meh run...I think it is a decent run given our recalibrated expectations..0.5" for DC and more to the west...that isnt all accumulating snow, but it isn;t the 0.18" the euro gave us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 after all is said and done, it will be an interesting 48 hrs to see what unfolds. And according to the EC control run there is more snow coming,so that will have to do. Peace to all, and try to enjoy what you get, life is so much easier and enjoyable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yes, its the RAP at the end of its range and I took a gander to see what it showed... it still looks good for us I believe at hr 18... and I believe that meshes n with the NAM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So the enhanced qpf along the inverted trough is there on rgem/nam/gfs and has a strong enough signature to show up on the ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 FWIW, 00z GEFS mean ~0.6" QPF at DCA it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Gfs ens likes the idea. Nice improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 PSU and Yoda need to get some sleep. Woody's NWS discussion of the battle ground scenario where once the transfer starts, steady moderate snow is elusive, but bands develop and rotate through as the storm bombs off the coast, is a good one. Maybe we can all score something before the coastal robs the dying clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Gfs ens likes the idea. Nice improvement.image.jpg NAM/HI RES NAM/GFS/GFSE all like the idea. This would be pretty cool and better than being totally shut out during the HECS from philly to boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 No storm obs thread yet so I'll just drop this here. Most recent IR . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Cobb output from the 6z suite NAM: 5.8" with .33" PL @ BWI. 9.7" with .13" PL @ DCA 6.1" @ Westminster 13.7" @ IAD GFS: 3.9" @BWI .8" @ DCA with the rest coming in the form of rain. Total QPF was over .5" 8.2" @ Westminster 1.7" @ IAD lots of bust potential the further south you are with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Man what a dilemma...I'm certain my meetings in New York next week are going to be cancelled. But I already have a hotel room in Queens by LaGuardia ....do I still drive up tomorrow morning? How bad will 95 be in the morning on Monday? Do I take groceries with me....****..Right now I'm hedging on going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 WPC total 3 day probs for >= 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Man what a dilemma...I'm certain my meetings in New York next week are going to be cancelled. But I already have a hotel room in Queens by LaGuardia ....do I still drive up tomorrow morning? How bad will 95 be in the morning on Monday? Do I take groceries with me....****..Right now I'm hedging on going Clear the snow from around the tailpipe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Man what a dilemma...I'm certain my meetings in New York next week are going to be cancelled. But I already have a hotel room in Queens by LaGuardia ....do I still drive up tomorrow morning? How bad will 95 be in the morning on Monday? Do I take groceries with me....****..Right now I'm hedging on going You HAVE to go. And post pics on here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Leesburg, Go to NY. If the meetings are cancelled, you will be right in the middle of the snowstorm. You can post blizzard pictures Live from New York lol This is the chance of a lifetime! You are going to be in the middle of a BECS with over 30 inches of wind driven snow! Imagine taking a frigid jebwalk in driving, blinding snow, unable to even see where you are walking, blinded by 55 dbZ flakes swirling all around you in the New York City streetlights! Don't miss this! Get out in the storm, enjoy it! Get pics and video! Imagine getting to find out PERSONALLY what its like to get mired in a HUGE 12 foot snowdrift! You dont have to accept the plight of Northern Virginians. You dont have to make the best of a car top coating of snow! You have an opportunity to personally experience a massive crippling blizzard in real life, not just read about it in the KU book! Go for it! Look at it this way: YOU WILL NOT BE FRINGED. We will be fringed. You'll be right smack dab in the middle of The Day After Tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Man what a dilemma...I'm certain my meetings in New York next week are going to be cancelled. But I already have a hotel room in Queens by LaGuardia ....do I still drive up tomorrow morning? How bad will 95 be in the morning on Monday? Do I take groceries with me....****..Right now I'm hedging on going free trip. Got to go. I'll shovel your inch at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 free trip. Got to go. I'll shovel your inch at home What I need is timing of the snow up 95 if I leave around 5 am will I be white knuckling it or will I get ahead of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What I need is timing of the snow up 95 if I leave around 5 am will I be white knuckling it or will I get ahead of it? Leave tonight and find some slum motel to crash in that has yelp reviews that don't include bed bugs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What I need is timing of the snow up 95 if I leave around 5 am will I be white knuckling it or will I get ahead of it? leave NOW.. actually nws has the wx moving into the western burbs of dca between 9:00 pm and midnight depending on your location.. but if you are really intent to go, leave no later than 6 or 7sh tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 leave NOW I can't...it's gonna have to be tomorrow .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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