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February Forecast Discussion


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So far this winter is like a 2nd rate version of last season. New England is going to get smoked yet again while we either get ice or rain.

I think we're going to get one more big storm before the pattern relaxes and I have a good feeling about the 2/12-2/20 time frame.

 

"Coming in second wouldn't be the worst; as long as no one else was first!"

___Pamela

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This winter will just about be the end of using the October snowcover index to predict the AO for the winter. What a fail this year. 

 

I moved this into here since I think it's a convo better suited for a pattern thread. I followed the snow cover stuff, for the first time, fairly closely this year. I agree that the correlation for AO looks like it needs some work. There was also some discussion about the correlation to cold air outbreaks related to snowcover. I'm wondering what other people think of this, because that part seems to have worked out.

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I moved this into here since I think it's a convo better suited for a pattern thread. I followed the snow cover stuff, for the first time, fairly closely this year. I agree that the correlation for AO looks like it needs some work. There was also some discussion about the correlation to cold air outbreaks related to snowcover. I'm wondering what other people think of this, because that part seems to have worked out.

They're doing a plethora of research on this recently and I'll be very interested to see what the data shows for this year. One of the things they're also indirectly researching is how the AO and NAO interlink with each other.
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They're doing a plethora of research on this recently and I'll be very interested to see what the data shows for this year. One of the things they're also indirectly researching is how the AO and NAO interlink with each other.

Also what I will say about Cohen's research is that while the mechanism may be incorrect (saying the AO is almost forced negative by the Siberian high and snow cover), we still had remarkably increased cold late in the winter as the correlation would indicate. Correlation is not causation however, and the mechanism through which they believe this to happen may be completely different.
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