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February Forecast Discussion


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So, just for fun, I decided to flip through the 12z EPS members. As of this last run, they are quite bullish on this timeframe below. As for Friday, it might bear watching, it looks very dependent on what happens with this current storm. Which isn't really surprising

 

attachicon.gifecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_11.png

A massive high building down like that east of the Rockies is notorious for sending blue northers down here into Texas. Brrrr down here if that depiction happens (Brrrr meaning we probably make it into the 20s for lows in Austin with highs around 48). 

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I know it's la la land but simply amazing to see. Great pattern depicted esp if we can get that southern stream involvement. How does the NAO/AO look going forward? PNA ridge looks to stay in place all run more or less.

Gefs keep the trough in the east most of the run too before flattening things a bit toward the end of the run.

Sent from my iPhone

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If the CPC 6 to 10 & 8 to 14 day outlooks...which keeps temperatures far below normal right through the end of the month...then this will almost certainly be the coldest February in 70 years...eclipsing the amazing cold of February 1978 or February 1979.  If it is wet enough; this will be perhaps the most severe winter month (combined snow & cold) this area has seen in a while...maybe even worse than January 2011. 

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The cold sure has been impressive, and looks to continue. You don't see discussions like this from Upton every winter.

 

 

BEFORE THEN...A BRUTALLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
NW WINDS AND WIND CHILL VALUES -20 TO -30F MON MORNING. A WIND CHILL
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS. TEMPS AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RECORD COLD MON MORNING.

TEMPS WILL WARM UP TUE INTO WED AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS 25 TO 30. SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW PRESSURE WILL PHASE WITH
A DEEPENING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EAST. THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
PHASING WILL BE KEY TO HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS DRAWN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

BEHIND THE MIDWEEK COASTAL LOW...WILL BE ANOTHER SHOT OF OF VERY
COLD AIR WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE 20S...POSSIBLY EVEN
COLDER. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO.
 

 

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