February Forecast Discussion

[PB GFI]

With that cold along with an active pattern we are bound to receive more snow. It may not be a major storm but something along the 6-10" variety is certainly likely.

Mod events will add to the pack and will just stick around .

[Doorman]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=6&fcolor=wbg

 

again we stress

slow movement

 

 

  match it up with the 0z GFS run, now....

[MJO812]

GFS is brutally cold in the long range with a possible threat near mid month which the GFS has been hinting at.

[Doorman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015020406/gfs_apcpn_neus_24.png

 

06z GFS thru 1:00am Tues 

 

stormy

----------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f144_us.html

 

7:00pm Monday ESRL outlook

 

Mt Holly nugget 

 

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IT MAY START UNSETTLED HOWEVER LOW

CONFIDENCE IS CARRIED HERE GIVEN QUESTIONS ON THE TRACK OF LOW

PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY. THE PROJECTIONS ATTM POINT TO A

STORM TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH. WILL THIS HOLD OR WILL IT CREEP

NORTHWARD LIKE OTHERS HAVE DONE AS WE GET CLOSER, THIS IS STILL A

QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED. IT DOES LOOK FAVORABLE THOUGH AS HIGH

PRESSURE IS TO OUR NORTH WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF COLD AIR DAMMING,

HOWEVER GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK ATTM WE COULD HAVE SOME BOUNDARY

LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES FOR A TIME MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN

ZONES. WE COULD HAVE A DECENT OVERRUNNING EVENT WITH THIS SETUP AND

THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A SHARPER SYSTEM, HOWEVER LOTS CAN CHANGE THIS

FAR OUT. AS A RESULT, WE DID NOT GET ALL THAT DETAILED AND

PRECIPITATION TYPES COULD END UP VARYING. AT THIS POINT, WE WILL

CARRY GENERIC SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN AND STAYED CLOSE TO CONTINUITY/WPC.

IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURING TUESDAY WITH IMPROVING

CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THE MORE

AMPLIFIED SCENARIO PANS OUT.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

WPC day 7 QPF update

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1423047398

[doncat]

Arctic front tomorrow morning with falling temps thru the day...starts out near 32 in the morning, dropping into the teens by late afternoon it looks like, and to 10 or lower by Friday am.

[MJO812]

WPC

THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRESENT AS A
DEEP OUTLIER WITH THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL, THE NORTHERN STREAM GETS CUT OFF AT THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH A PROGRESSION OF MODERATE-AMPLITUDE WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. THE WEST COAST--SAVE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA--LOOKS QUITE WET FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, BEFORE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE EAST LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT WET, WITH THE RAIN-SNOW LINE LIKELY TO SET UP ALONG 40N AS PER MUCH OF THIS WINTER.

[Zelocita Weather]

WPC

Thus my avatar...

[Doorman]

More from the WPC.....

 

...SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...

THE MODELS STILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHERN CA
DAY 3 SAT 07 FEB. 48 HOUR TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 4-6 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS
ENDING 12Z SUN. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS ON
SUN 08 FEB AND MON 09 FEB ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS DOWNSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WHERE HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES OUT WEST REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH DAYS
3-7.

IN THE EAST...THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND FRONTAL WAVE BRINGS MORE
SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...UPPER OH
VALLEY...AND THEN PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEW YORK/NEW
ENGLAND. THE CLOSER IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE 06Z GFS RESULTED IN
HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS MON-TUE 09-10 FEB WHILE THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
00-06Z GEFS MEAN HAD MUCH LOWER LIQUID EQUIVALENT AND POTENTIAL
SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO LONG ISLAND NY AND NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAKER EAST CIRCULATION IN THE GEFS ALSO ADVECTED LESS COLD
AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST VS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES...SO LESS WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE GEFS TEMPERATURE
PROFILES AS A RESULT OF A PREFERENCE FOR A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND
SLOWER MOVING CIRCULATION.

PETERSEN

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

Day 6 surface prog

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mhwbg_conus.gif

[Doorman]

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&nontasked=2015

 

Non Tasked Gulf Recco the past three days

for model ingest 

 

The key here is to look for a stable  GFS op and GEFS ENS match

this should tighten up the guidance spread  -imo

 

24hr window for our

day 5 forecast confidence level

 

dm

[bluewave]

Unprecedented 3 January in a row strong blocking pattern centered just off the Pacific Northwest Coast.

The previous record was two years in a row from 1962-1963 and 1984-1985.

 

[SnoSki14]

This pattern with the +PNA now locking into place and the EPO poised to be negative after a brief positive stint makes me wonder later this month. You also have the much more variable AO, which has recently entered a negative stretch and a strengthening temperature gradient as climo starts to warm but the cold in the east is locked into place. Also add in a stronger subtropical jet and the ingredients could be there for another major storm. The only thing really lacking is the NAO, but I think that'll play a bigger role for areas to our south than here

 

I'm going out on the limb and say a KU type storm may be possible within the Feb 12-20 time frame. 

[USCG RS]

This pattern with the +PNA now locking into place and the EPO poised to be negative after a brief positive stint makes me wonder later this month. You also have the much more variable AO, which has recently entered a negative stretch and a strengthening temperature gradient as climo starts to warm but the cold in the east is locked into place. Also add in a stronger subtropical jet and the ingredients could be there for another major storm. The only thing really lacking is the NAO, but I think that'll play a bigger role for areas to our south than here

I'm going out on the limb and say a KU type storm may be possible within the Feb 12-20 time frame.

I completely agree. Something big is in the works this month imho. Teleconnections are just gorgeous (subtract the NAO).

[Doorman]

 

WPC -0z GEFS ENS  

72hr comp 

short wave #1-continuity spot check

southeast  track--check

light qpf- check

 

lets see today's  12Z GFS-ENS run 

then add another 24 hr window

this brings us to a (96hr) Day 4  prog

that should hold water-imo

 

fwiw

the 540 mb contour on the Vort map

runs smack dab in the middle of the projected snow potential 

 

ESRL update

should bring the snow bunnies joy

nice prog for Sunday Night

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f096_usbg.gif

 

 

dm

[Doorman]

Outstanding Write-Up

by Mt Holly this morning

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WE START THE WEEKEND WITH ONE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND ANOTHER
ONE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. A COLD FRONT DIVIDES THE TWO AND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE SETTLING INTO AND ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF LIFT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT, HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY RESULT IN A BIT MORE FORCING. THIS
WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THERE MAY BE AN INITIAL CLIPPER OR EVEN A
SERIES OF CLIPPERS ALONG IT. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE LIFT IS NEAR
AND NORTH OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE DELMARVA SUNDAY, A POTENTIALLY MORE
PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THIS
OCCURS, COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED JUST NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THIS MAY END UP SUPPLYING ADDITIONAL DRY/COLD LOW-LEVEL AIR WITHIN A
COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP AND POSSIBLY HOLD BACK THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION SOME. THIS SETUP MAY MEANDER NORTH OR SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO PINPOINT WHERE EXACTLY
THE STRONGEST BAROCLINIC ZONE/FORCING BECOMES FOCUSED. IT WILL BE
WARMER ON SATURDAY AS WAA OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THEN
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SEEP SOUTHWARD SOME SUNDAY. THIS KEEPS THE DOOR
OPEN TO VARYING PRECIPITATION TYPES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA DURING SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL COOLING SUNDAY
NIGHT MAY SHIFT THIS SOUTHWARD. IF THE COLDER AIR PUSH IS SHALLOW,
THEN ICING COULD BECOME MORE OF A THREAT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN TAKING THE INITIAL OVERRUNNING ENERGY AND STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE
IT INTO A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NEAR THE
DELMARVA. AS THIS OCCURS, COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS SITTING NORTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WITH A NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THE
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MAY THEN MORPH INTO MORE OF A DYNAMIC LIFT
AS THE UPPER-TROUGH STARTS TO SHARPEN OVERHEAD. HOW THESE PIECES FIT
TOGETHER ALONG WITH THE TIMING WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AND ALSO THE THERMAL FIELDS. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE
COOLING, HOWEVER A WARM LAYER POSSIBLY STILL ALOFT COULD KEEP SOME
ICE THREAT ALIVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION THOUGH SHOULD BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME AS
COOLING TAKES PLACE. AS A RESULT, WE DID NOT GET TO DETAILED WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND THE POPS WERE MAINLY A BLEND OF CONTINUITY
AND THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL
AWAY DURING TUESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. STAYED TUNED AS THIS
COULD BE A MESSY SYSTEM STARTING SOMETIME SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

[Doorman]

 

Low Track Update

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif

 

 

[Brian5671]

Anything cooking on the models past next Sun/Mon-storms?  continued cold pattern?

[PB GFI]

Anything cooking on the models past next Sun/Mon-storms?  continued cold pattern?

It will be cold  for the next 2 weeks and the 5 days period between the 13 and 18 on the GFS is just brutal . That alone will not please many here .

[Doorman]

Anything cooking on the models past next Sun/Mon-storms?  continued cold pattern?

Brian

run the loop

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_ussm_animation.html

 

cold pattern....in the mix ATM

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/WLD/gfsWLD_850_temp_240.gif

 

day 10 GFS 850 temps

 

[nzucker]

It will be cold  for the next 2 weeks and the 5 days period between the 13 and 18 on the GFS is just brutal . That alone will not please many here .

That 1048mb arctic high looks crazy...

[bluewave]

Seeing the Euro ensemble mean cold as the OP at day 8 is telling you how impressive

the Arctic shot coming in around the 13th is going to be. The GFS is seeing the same

and is only a day or two off on the timing. Sooner or later with all the major EPO

and PNA blocking you are going to get a memorable PV drop near the NE/SE Canada.

 

[PB GFI]

Seeing the Euro ensemble mean cold as the OP at day 8 is telling you how impressive

the Arctic shot coming in around the 13th is going to be. The GFS is seeing the same

and is only a day or two off on the timing. Sooner or later with all the major EPO

and PNA blocking you are going to get a memorable PV drop near the NE/SE Canada.

 

ENS.gif

I thought that press through the lakes next week would have offered more in the way of the confluence needed to push the baroclinic zone south. Too bad it's going to be late pushing through .

It did look good for the I 78 crew for a while. Now It's a I 84 and I 90 storm.

Going forward the GFS is showing - 15 C over 5 days throughout the area. There should be a few below 0 nights N and W in that period

[Allsnow]

Seeing the Euro ensemble mean cold as the OP at day 8 is telling you how impressive

the Arctic shot coming in around the 13th is going to be. The GFS is seeing the same

and is only a day or two off on the timing. Sooner or later with all the major EPO

and PNA blocking you are going to get a memorable PV drop near the NE/SE Canada.

ENS.gif

Unfortunately I don't like the looks of that pattern for any snow threats.....looks very cold and dry after monday

[IsentropicLift]

Seeing the Euro ensemble mean cold as the OP at day 8 is telling you how impressive

the Arctic shot coming in around the 13th is going to be. The GFS is seeing the same

and is only a day or two off on the timing. Sooner or later with all the major EPO

and PNA blocking you are going to get a memorable PV drop near the NE/SE Canada.

 

ENS.gif

And once that happens it will likely shut off any hopes of a big storm until the pattern relaxes at the end of February, and by then the sun angle talks will be valid.

[Heisy]

Check out the 00z GFS from 180hrs on, one of the most insane runs I've seen in a long time. IF that shortwave had dropped at more S trajectory we'd be talking about a blizzard of the ages IMO....I actually trust the GFS in the LR more than the EURO, it almost creates an all-timer for SNE....verbatim it shows absolutely insane cold. 

 

[tmagan]

Check out the 00z GFS from 180hrs on, one of the most insane runs I've seen in a long time. IF that shortwave had dropped at more S trajectory we'd be talking about a blizzard of the ages IMO....I actually trust the GFS in the LR more than the EURO, it almost creates an all-timer for SNE....verbatim it shows absolutely insane cold. 

 

That is a one in a hundred chance, maybe even less.

[SnoSki14]

So far this winter is like a 2nd rate version of last season. New England is going to get smoked yet again while we either get ice or rain.

I think we're going to get one more big storm before the pattern relaxes and I have a good feeling about the 2/12-2/20 time frame.

[EasternLI]

Going to have to keep an eye out to see what happens around the end of next weekend, 6z GFS offers this look:

 

 

[EasternLI]

Interesting look on the 0z GGEM as well, I know it's way out there and we have to get through mon. first. But here you go, those that were looking for something else to track :

 

[MJO812]

Another little storm for the end of next week on the GFS lol

[PB GFI]

The GFS Likes the day 5 clipper and hints at some redevelopment .