Zir0b Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 seems legit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 seems legit.... Jeez look at New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 seems legit.... Am I missing something?? This is a lot more than .5 QPF that ws alluded to earlier. It was also mentioned SNE is crushed ( but according to the map ) we are equally crushed!. This is a repeat of when the Euro caught on to the 'blizzard'' before all other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Am I missing something?? This is a lot more than .5 QPF that ws alluded to earlier. It was also mentioned SNE is crushed ( but according to the map ) we are equally crushed!. This is a repeat of when the Euro caught on to the 'blizzard'' before all other models. That map is through next Wednesday. Multiple events are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Man at the ECMWF map. NYC would be way ahead of climo. Boston's already had its snowiest week all time since 1891. That much more snow would have significant societal impact. Parts of NH and ME have had like 60-70" in the last 9 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Ensembles will be interesting for Thursday into Friday, we are really close in and the GFS is not biting much, only 30-40% of the ensembles even are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Lets worry on Thursday-Friday First please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The Euro ensembles look close to the Op, it may be slightly east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The Euro ensembles look close to the Op, it may be slightly east With what the Euro and its ensembles are showing, how would places like Philly and NYC fair with this for Thursday into Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Looks like the 18z NAM is coming in more amped for later this week...i'll let the run finish though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The Euro ensembles look close to the Op, it may be slightly east It has a closed 500mb low over SC at 192hrs. Pretty impressive storm signal on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 It has a closed 500mb low over SC at 192hrs. Pretty impressive storm signal on the mean. NAM outside its range and still picking up on storm. Good signs are beginnin to abound! starting to get optimistic. V curious to see what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 It has a closed 500mb low over SC at 192hrs. Pretty impressive storm signal on the mean.I think you're talking about different storms, the Ensembles have a great look for 84 hours (the mean is near CC and inside the BM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Lets worry on Thursday-Friday First please. Is it any decent for Northern NJ? Sorry, I don't have access to maps or expertise to check myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I think you're talking about different storms, the Ensembles have a great look for 84 hours (the mean is near CC and inside the BM) Yeah this is a general thread so multiple events are being discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Nam looks more interested in Thur/Friday chance. More phasing, closer to the coast. 500s look much more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 For the storm next week the Euro ensembles show the high moving offshore which allows the system to come North but also allows temps to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 We should make separate threads when these threats get a little closer and the current storm is over...it's getting a little confusing as people are talking about two separate events, one a clipper/Miller B on Thursday and then a larger system on Sunday into Monday. What's certain is that February will feature a +PNA, leading to more cold weather and opportunities for snow. Definitely a very El Nino like signature to the pattern. We should keep the arctic air as well as long as the EPO stays negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 18z GFS is still a whiff for Thursday/Friday. Might have even taken a step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 18z GFS is still a whiff for Thursday/Friday. Might have even taken a step back. wouldn't say it was a step back... trough was a bit more amplified at 72 hours but still very far from being anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 18z GFS is still a whiff for Thursday/Friday. Might have even taken a step back. What's the ECMWF seeing that the GFS isn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 What's the ECMWF seeing that the GFS isn't? It appears to me the GFS is having issues as to where to place the coastal low, it wants to form it too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Hope the euro isnt too amplified like its been at this time frame this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 It appears to me the GFS is having issues as to where to place the coastal low, it wants to form it too far east. I personally prefer the ECM to the GFS when it comes to coastals, and the ECM has support from its ensembles... so that's pretty hard to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I personally prefer the ECM to the GFS when it comes to coastals, and the ECM has support from its ensembles... so that's pretty hard to beat. This is a classic setup where the Euro is usually right, its not exactly a Miller A but its a phasing system coming up from the north. The Euro has also been hot lately, minus the blizzard. The UKMET also has been good, its nailed the last 2 systems and it shows this being similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 This is a classic setup where the Euro is usually right, its not exactly a Miller A but its a phasing system coming up from the north. The Euro has also been hot lately, minus the blizzard. The UKMET also has been good, its nailed the last 2 systems and it shows this being similar to the Euro. FWIW how much snow is the euro and ukmet showing for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 FWIW how much snow is the euro and ukmet showing for the area? Euro has the .5-.75 gradient covering most of the area. There's a nose of .75-1 in central Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Euro has the .5-.75 gradient covering most of the area. There's a nose of .75-1 in central Connecticut. thats pretty decent but is it even snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 thats pretty decent but is it even snow? That's always the question, isn't it. At it's warmest hour (78), the 0 line at 850 crosses western LI. Hard to tell on the maps exactly where. Then at 84, it's crashing East. Boston is above 0 at 84 while we are below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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