Jason215 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 From what I can tell (from my phone) It looks like it clips Eastern Suffolk County. It doesn't look as tucked into the coast as the UKMET and A lot can and will change being 4 days out. But I'm liking the trends so far tonight. -Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Really active pattern for next week on the Euro. 2 snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Really active pattern for next week on the Euro. 2 snow chances. What day is chance #2? Thanks, Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 What day is chance #2? Thanks, Jason Feb 8-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Feb 8-9 Back to back snowstorms would make up for tonight's meager snow totals for the CP. The fact that the GFS doesn't like storm #1 could be it's frequent behavior of losing the storm in the 3-5 day range only to pick it up again. Hope the 12Z brings a hit while we are sitting in the rain. -Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The 12Z NAM continues the NW push at 80 hours...this one may end up a near miss here but its moving closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The 12Z NAM continues the NW push at 80 hours...this one may end up a near miss here but its moving closer. That is not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 With the high to the NW you could get an expansive precip shield...these highs have trended slower out of Canada and weaker all winter, if that keeps up this is going to come NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 With the high to the NW you could get an expansive precip shield...these highs have trended slower out of Canada and weaker all winter, if that keeps up this is going to come NW Bet you a good deal GFS will strongly come NW and Euro ( leading pack on this one) will do same 2.,5 hrs later. This is beginning turn in our favor ( the pattern shift the last 3 weeks) has already turned our winter around ( already above avg for snow at CPK LGA JFK) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Last nights Euro was simply a case of the southern stream vort outrunning the energy dropping through the plains. Eventually the initial vort on the Euro ends up getting sheared out. I'm going to call BS, this at the very least should have been a late phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 GFS has snow squalls for the area from a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 GFS has snow squalls for the area from a cold front. It has the right idea, pattern is too progressive. Next week holds much more potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 It has the right idea, pattern is too progressive. Next week holds much more potential That is the statement that has been uttered countless times this winter. Then after nothing next week, it'll just be the following week. I'm really starting to think this winter is just a winter where it does not want to snow in NYC. It stinks, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 That is the statement that has been uttered countless times this winter. Then after nothing next week, it'll just be the following week. I'm really starting to think this winter is just a winter where it does not want to snow in NYC. It stinks, but it is what it is. Where have you been the last two weeks? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 It has the right idea, pattern is too progressive. Next week holds much more potential Are we expecting a block next week? NAO forecasts are positive from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 That is the statement that has been uttered countless times this winter. Then after nothing next week, it'll just be the following week. I'm really starting to think this winter is just a winter where it does not want to snow in NYC. It stinks, but it is what it is. DUDE it's snowed 20" in the last 10 days alone... we are nearing averages for the entire season! Either: a. take a look outside every now and then, or, b. accept the climo of this place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Are we expecting a block next week? NAO forecasts are positive from what I can tell. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Are we expecting a block next week? NAO forecasts are positive from what I can tell. There are hints of a - NAO in the long range. That signal has shown up many times, unfortunately it hasn't occurred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 There are hints of an NAO in the long range. That signal has shown up many times, unfortunately it hasn't occurred I have my strong doubts regarding the existence of an NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml Yes, I looked at that. Doesn't look negative. There are hints of an NAO in the long range. That signal has shown up many times, unfortunately it hasn't occurred I assume you mean hints of a -NAO. The NAO is always there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 That is the statement that has been uttered countless times this winter. Then after nothing next week, it'll just be the following week. I'm really starting to think this winter is just a winter where it does not want to snow in NYC. It stinks, but it is what it is. NYC is near 20 inches for the winter. A few inches below average. We just had a 10-12 inch snowstorm last week. This winter hasn't been bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 GGEM looks like the GFS with the front bringing snow squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 DUDE it's snowed 20" in the last 10 days alone... we are nearing averages for the entire season! Either: a. take a look outside every now and then, or, b. accept the climo of this place This.............To everybody that lives in NYC proper. Just because there have been a few crazy winters, climo is climo for a reason. You can always hope for a blockbuster winter but stop whining if you are closing in on your seasonal average on groundhog day. 90 miles down the turnpike and you would know what real snow deprivation is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 NYC is near 20 inches for the winter. A few inches below average. We just had a 10-12 inch snowstorm last week. This winter hasn't been bad. 5 or 6 inches below seasonal norm on February 2nd is NOT below average at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 GGEM looks like the GFS with the front bringing snow squalls. Yeah not much help from the 12Z runs, the Euro may move east ...the UKMET appears to still be west but its tough to interpolate 72-96, it may have creeped east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 This.............To everybody that lives in NYC proper. Just because there have been a few crazy winters, climo is climo for a reason. You can always hope for a blockbuster winter but stop whining if you are closing in on your seasonal average on groundhog day. 90 miles down the turnpike and you would know what real snow deprivation is... And what's the climo for LI? My complaint isn't that we have some 20 inches for the winter. It's the disappointment of missing out on a blizzard that most mets had progged to hit us. And how often does the climo support a significant ice storm for NYC? They happen, of course, but rarely. I get that blizzards are rare, but when you get so close, it is a disappointment to miss out on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I think Feb 9-10th holds some potential still, guidance is indicating well have a good HP in SE Canada, just need a shortwve to undercut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I think Feb 9-10th holds some potential still, guidance is indicating well have a good HP in SE Canada, just need a shortwve to undercut it. Right now the setup for 2/8 on the GFS looks just like 1/27/94 minus the fact that low did not redevelop into a big system offshore but the high placement in Canada with the overrunning is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 And what's the climo for LI? My complaint isn't that we have some 20 inches for the winter. It's the disappointment of missing out on a blizzard that most mets had progged to hit us. And how often does the climo support a significant ice storm for NYC? They happen, of course, but rarely. I get that blizzards are rare, but when you get so close, it is a disappointment to miss out on it. Your avitar says Manhattan. Climo absolutely supports ice storms around NYC more than 30 inch blizzards backing in off the ocean. This is the coldest average time of year and there are many storms like this where coastal sections warm upstairs in storms and stay close to or below freezing at ground level. While the warmth of the streets in Manhattan often negate serious icing, surrounding boroughs and suburbs do get ice. Face it, more storms flip to rain than remain snow along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 And what's the climo for LI? My complaint isn't that we have some 20 inches for the winter. It's the disappointment of missing out on a blizzard that most mets had progged to hit us. And how often does the climo support a significant ice storm for NYC? They happen, of course, but rarely. I get that blizzards are rare, but when you get so close, it is a disappointment to miss out on it. I also read in another thread during the "blizzard" that there have only been 36 recorded storms in NYC of over 12". Assuming that is true, it proves that no matter how models and mets predict large storms for the city, there is so much that can go wrong that it is only "statistically reasonable" to expect a storm of over a foot every 4 years. Anything more "statistically" is a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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